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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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Was driving through addison county yesterday and many of the fields look like that road. Just rock solid glare ice. Sun was beaming in Middlebury in the mid-day and there was no wind...temps were in the mid 30s....darn it was nice.  If we aren't going to get snow, can we get more of that? 

 

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's a really meaningful observation, IMO.  There's something about when the valleys are clear and sunny, while the hill towns are dotted with Cu that mark a dividing line.  Sort of like, you've entered the zone of topographical influence in one way or another.

It's one thing I hadn't realized when moved here. Love the climate of Bretton Woods but sunny days are really rare in the winter, which is a bit annoying. The summer is definitely better but even then, not nearly as sunny as nearby North Conway or Littleton. The flip of it is that they feel like a furnace every time I'm there, and I don't really like the heat 

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4 hours ago, alex said:

It's one thing I hadn't realized when moved here. Love the climate of Bretton Woods but sunny days are really rare in the winter, which is a bit annoying. The summer is definitely better but even then, not nearly as sunny as nearby North Conway or Littleton. The flip of it is that they feel like a furnace every time I'm there, and I don't really like the heat 

I find the summers in the mountains to be nearly perfect temp wise. My cabin is typically 5 or so degrees cooler than Lowell with a lower dp. It makes a big difference when we're closing in on 90 in Lowell and a dp around 70 and the cabin is at 85 and dp of mid 60's. At that same time the temp at my inlaws in coastal RI may be 75, but with a dp of 73. Absolutely miserable if you ask me! One other phenomena I've noticed at the cabin is that we also get a natural cloud hole over my area. It must get a lot of sinking air from the surrounding mountains or something because as one travels north on 93 and you go from nearly clear skies south of Canterbury into cumulus and sometimes, cloudy skies (which the wife can't stand), but it often tends to thin out to the east of 93 at exit 28. It's as if they laid out the community based on that unique localized anomaly. The obvious downside is the shadowing we get in winter. I might get a dusting but Cannon reports 4-6".

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow.  I thought mine was bad...you have to get to the car here by holding onto the side view mirror (probably not the best idea) but there are small patches that aren't glare ice and have grip. 

Mine looked more like that after the last thaw...just a mirror surface that you could see your reflection in it and where you could get into a slow speed uncontrolled fall, ha.

Many years back, I was north of Flagstaff Lake measuring research plots just before Christmas, and had 1.5" of low-teens powder while in the woods.  Driving out a different way, I had crested a low hill at under 5 mph (had gotten stuck/unstuck twice already) when the rear end of the 4WD went loose, and I became a passenger.  Apparently the ditch had overflowed in the previous week's rain, and cold powder atop glare ice is the nearest thing to a frictionless surface outside of a lab.  It took at least 30 seconds for the truck to spin 270° and, fortunately, come to a stop such that I could drive back on to the road.  I've spun out other times, but that one took many many times longer - all one can do is enjoy the ride.  :lol:

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Hum, for what its worth some interesting model musings on the Euro this afternoon.  Wala, the Euro pops a snowstorm this weekend.  Then next week a torch,  I mean a real torch!  60's to near 70F up here.  That rival all time Feb high temp records...

We will see if either of these come to fruition in any way, shape or form...

 

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heat.jpg

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Hum, for what its worth some interesting model musings on the Euro this afternoon.  Wala, the Euro pops a snowstorm this weekend.  Then next week a torch,  I mean a real torch!  60's to near 70F up here.  That rival all time Feb high temp records...
We will see if either of these come to fruition in any way, shape or form...
 
Untitled.jpg.34cfa83055fae13c042487c8ce2494e5.jpg
heat.jpg.fbcb5da85971f8fe4540d4b8e8f4497c.jpg
Man I hope that heat fails in a big way

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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32 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Man I hope that heat fails in a big way

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

  18Z GFS was much colder than its previous run.  Even ice/snow next week.  If I compare the 18Z GFS to the Euro map I posted it is 36F colder for my location in Central NH, 65F on the Euro and 29F on the GFS!!  Im just reading the SNE threads and I guess a big gradient and bust potentials.  

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21 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

Time to tap trees, as the first solid run of the sugaring season is coming up next week.

Some of the maple sugar folks I know said they got a decent run during the Jan thaw too. But this one should be good. 

 

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8 hours ago, adk said:

Some of the maple sugar folks I know said they got a decent run during the Jan thaw too. But this one should be good. 

 

I'm a newbie at sugaring but I thought you were only supposed to tap once? Isn't it too early - ie, you get a couple of days now and then can't tap again in March when it's really flowing?

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34 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm a newbie at sugaring but I thought you were only supposed to tap once? Isn't it too early - ie, you get a couple of days now and then can't tap again in March when it's really flowing?

No, you tap once at the beginning of the season and you get sap flows when the weather cooperates.  When I was growing up we would typically tap during school break in February.  You take the taps out after the season, usually in early to mid April around here.

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3 hours ago, mreaves said:

No, you tap once at the beginning of the season and you get sap flows when the weather cooperates.  When I was growing up we would typically tap during school break in February.  You take the taps out after the season, usually in early to mid April around here.

Also, vacuum systems and smaller taps allow sugar makers to tap earlier and keep the taps in the trees longer without bacteria invading or the taps drying out.

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830pm Thur eve...Living the life up here on the hill. .  Meanwhile 600 feet below its a frig!

Had to go down to Boston today.  Just amazing to watch the snowcover get thinner and thinner as I drove south on Rt 93.  Seems like the 50% coverage is in the Concord/Manchester area.  Very thin spotty cover just north of Nashua.  Last few patches of snow just south of the NH line.  Nothing in the Boston metro area.   

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Lol I was going to post the same observation - I also drove down to Boston! Could've given you a ride. Amazing to leave home at 12F and arrive in Boston at 48F. Also very cool temp profile coming back - foothills in the mid 30s, and low to mid 40's from Franconia Notch northward. 

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Interesting that last year and this year both feature really sharp late-Feb warm-ups. 

Only difference is this year we are dropping from 55/60 inches as opposed to 100".... Season is going to take a very interesting turn over the next few days.  If we don't get a Stella (and there is no reason to think we will), I wonder how this season is going to end-up. 

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3 hours ago, adk said:

Interesting that last year and this year both feature really sharp late-Feb warm-ups. 

Only difference is this year we are dropping from 55/60 inches as opposed to 100".... Season is going to take a very interesting turn over the next few days.  If we don't get a Stella (and there is no reason to think we will), I wonder how this season is going to end-up. 

Eerily similar to last year.  But last year at this time, you couldn’t haven’t predicted Stella.  

Im off to bc in the morning, hoping things improve when I get back.

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2 hours ago, adk said:

Interesting that last year and this year both feature really sharp late-Feb warm-ups. 

Only difference is this year we are dropping from 55/60 inches as opposed to 100".... Season is going to take a very interesting turn over the next few days.  If we don't get a Stella (and there is no reason to think we will), I wonder how this season is going to end-up. 

My super-sensitive all-purpose weather forecasting stick (hand-crafted from free-ranged organic Carpinus caroliniana,  $14.99 for one, $20 for 2 on Etsy) tells me that from BTV south, this winter will be at or slightly below normal for snowfall, but above normal for precipitation and temperature.  One more 6-8" snow, a few 2-3" events, all before March 21.  After that, all rain or mixed precip at best.  Dry and warm on April 3 and 4, followed by soaking cold rain from a coastal on April 5 (Opening Day, Fenway).

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11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

830pm Thur eve...Living the life up here on the hill. .  Meanwhile 600 feet below its a frig!

Had to go down to Boston today.  Just amazing to watch the snowcover get thinner and thinner as I drove south on Rt 93.  Seems like the 50% coverage is in the Concord/Manchester area.  Very thin spotty cover just north of Nashua.  Last few patches of snow just south of the NH line.  Nothing in the Boston metro area.   

 

Ha, is it really that amazing?  Maybe after the past 5 years that is in reverse of what it normally is? ;)

It sounds like going on I89 from Waterbury/J.Spin's area to about 5 miles east in Richmond.  We don't have to drive to Boston to get that effect, just a quick trip to Best Buy, ha.

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3 hours ago, adk said:

Interesting that last year and this year both feature really sharp late-Feb warm-ups. 

Only difference is this year we are dropping from 55/60 inches as opposed to 100".... Season is going to take a very interesting turn over the next few days.  If we don't get a Stella (and there is no reason to think we will), I wonder how this season is going to end-up. 

 

At my site we just fell back below average snowfall pace on the season yesterday with this recent lull.  That’s not really a highlight on the season, but it does mean we’ve been running right around average snowfall pace, so there’s nothing to really complain about on that front at valley level along the spine.  I’m not actually sure, but could imagine the western slopes might be running below average because we haven’t really seen much upslope his season.

 

Snowpack has been really robust as well at our site this season – we’re pretty close to average in terms of depth, but it’s probably got 4 or 5 inches of liquid in it, which I bet is above average.  Snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is about average for this time of year, but I wonder what the water content in the Mansfield snowpack is right now relative to average?

 

16FEB18A.jpg

 

But going forward, we’re talking NNE here though, where March and April can be fantastic in terms of snowfall as you know – especially at elevation.  That’s 8 to 10 more weeks with lots of storm possibilities, and even if there’s not a Winter Storm Stella, there are typically a number of chances for good storms.  As the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plot shows, on average there’s still more than a month of snowpack gains to go, and then another month where it pretty much stays pat.  The clock’s really not ticking here to the degree that you’ll start to hear the populace moan about it in the general forum. 

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1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

My super-sensitive all-purpose weather forecasting stick (hand-crafted from free-ranged organic Carpinus caroliniana,  $14.99 for one, $20 for 2 on Etsy) tells me that from BTV south, this winter will be at or slightly below normal for snowfall, but above normal for precipitation and temperature.  One more 6-8" snow, a few 2-3" events, all before March 21.  After that, all rain or mixed precip at best.  Dry and warm on April 3 and 4, followed by soaking cold rain from a coastal on April 5 (Opening Day, Fenway).

Mine's made of the other "ironwood", Ostrya virginiana, and it says near whiff tomorrow night, 1/3 of pack lost next week, but tells me nothing specific about March.  However, it's pointing to a total snowfall finish in the 80s.  That's where my annual average lies (currently 89"), but in 19 winters we've finished in every "decade" 40s (15-16) thru 140s (07-08) except the 80s. 

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Mine's made of the other "ironwood", Ostrya virginiana, and it says near whiff tomorrow night, 1/3 of pack lost next week, but tells me nothing specific about March.  However, it's pointing to a total snowfall finish in the 80s.  That's where my annual average lies (currently 89"), but in 19 winters we've finished in every "decade" 40s (15-16) thru 140s (07-08) except the 80s. 

That's a good species, too.  Very firm, never wishy washy with its forecasts. 

That's interesting that you've never once finished with a snowfall in the 80s.   Funny how averages work.  And it's also telling about the variability.

I had 10-12 inches of snow otg yesterday, but it took a hit with the warmth.  I don't expect it to survive next week. 

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4 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

That's a good species, too.  Very firm, never wishy washy with its forecasts. 

That's interesting that you've never once finished with a snowfall in the 80s.   Funny how averages work.  And it's also telling about the variability.

I had 10-12 inches of snow otg yesterday, but it took a hit with the warmth.  I don't expect it to survive next week. 

Still a bit over 20" here and it's pretty solid, LE probably 4-5" - I'm in a location that holds snow well.  And I like statistical irony, as you've noticed.  Some wise wx observer once said, "Normal weather is merely the average of abnormal weather." 

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Still a bit over 20" here and it's pretty solid, LE probably 4-5" - I'm in a location that holds snow well.  And I like statistical irony, as you've noticed.  Some wise wx observer once said, "Normal weather is merely the average of abnormal weather." 

That's a terrific quote.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, is it really that amazing?  Maybe after the past 5 years that is in reverse of what it normally is? ;)

It sounds like going on I89 from Waterbury/J.Spin's area to about 5 miles east in Richmond.  We don't have to drive to Boston to get that effect, just a quick trip to Best Buy, ha.

PF,  I guess I never think about other areas where my observation would be the norm and in a much smaller range of miles. You drive a few miles and go from no snow to lots of it. I never see that around here. In my area the gradient is usually spread over a vast area of 50 miles or more unless its right after a snowfall with a sharp edge.  Most of the time when I head to Boston we will have more snow and they will have patchy snow.  Some years when we get the misses there is more snow down there.  It is unusual for me to have a deep snowcover and get to Boston and see absolutely nothing.  

On the other hand my Mom and sister live in Bend Oregon on edge of the Cascades.  Bend usually has bare ground.  Drive 10-15 miles up the road to the Bachelor ski area and there can be 6 feet.  

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

PF,  I guess I never think about other areas where my observation would be the norm and in a much smaller range of miles. You drive a few miles and go from no snow to lots of it. I never see that around here. In my area the gradient is usually spread over a vast area of 50 miles or more unless its right after a snowfall with a sharp edge.  Most of the time when I head to Boston we will have more snow and they will have patchy snow.  Some years when we get the misses there is more snow down there.  It is unusual for me to have a deep snowcover and get to Boston and see absolutely nothing.  

On the other hand my Mom and sister live in Bend Oregon on edge of the Cascades.  Bend usually has bare ground.  Drive 10-15 miles up the road to the Bachelor ski area and there can be 6 feet.  

About 20 years back we visited family in the Olympia area during Thanksgiving week, and took a ride to Rainier National Forest.  Not a hint of snow until we were well past the dam on the Nisqually, and at Longmire (2,760') there was 6" of crud with RA/SN mix.  We wanted to go up to Paradise at 5,500' but, having neither chains nor 4WD, were turned back at 4,000'.  Drove back 1/10 mile to a wide spot with safe parking and had a snowball fight in about 4 feet of snowpack - not bad going from 6" to almost 50 in 1,200' elev gain.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

About 20 years back we visited family in the Olympia area during Thanksgiving week, and took a ride to Rainier National Forest.  Not a hint of snow until we were well past the dam on the Nisqually, and at Longmire (2,760') there was 6" of crud with RA/SN mix.  We wanted to go up to Paradise at 5,500' but, having neither chains nor 4WD, were turned back at 4,000'.  Drove back 1/10 mile to a wide spot with safe parking and had a snowball fight in about 4 feet of snowpack - not bad going from 6" to almost 50 in 1,200' elev gain.

Pretty amazing how much difference there is between Longmire and Paradise out there snowfall wise.  I was in Seattle a lot for work during  2006-09 and would go up there frequently during the winter months(when it was accessible) One of those winters..maybe it was 07-08 they got crushed, even in Seattle I remember it snowing a bunch and being delayed at Sea-Tac a few times. 

I had a ton of pics(probably grainy) on an old blackberry I had back then, I still have it  in a box somewhere, will have to see if I can dig that up.

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42 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Pretty amazing how much difference there is between Longmire and Paradise out there snowfall wise.  I was in Seattle a lot for work during  2006-09 and would go up there frequently during the winter months(when it was accessible) One of those winters..maybe it was 07-08 they got crushed, even in Seattle I remember it snowing a bunch and being delayed at Sea-Tac a few times. 

I had a ton of pics(probably grainy) on an old blackberry I had back then, I still have it  in a box somewhere, will have to see if I can dig that up.

For the period 1981-2010, Paradise averaged 666" and Longmire 143", with the proportional difference greatest in the shoulder seasons, lowest in DJF.  The discrepancy has increased in recent years, possibly because a warming climate affected the location with more borderline events.  For 1948-49 (beginning of my Paradise data) onward, that spot averaged 671" while Longmire got 173".

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