December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Ericjcrash]

7 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Dude. You predicted 6.5" for NYC 4hrs ago? 

Yeah, that was post UK, I would've bet good money the Euro would'v been significantly better and the NAM would hold serve. It's now even worse off than the GFS. More likely 6 flakes. I was wrong for buying the UKs idea.

[ORH_wxman]

Well someone has to get the first weenie tag every season....just sayin'

 

Lets make good posts in here. This is a storm thread.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ericjcrashandburn

Well done. Lol

[NorEastermass128]

26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats Gulfport and Norfolk. This is looking bleak, after that UK run I'm surprised.

Hmm...in DC this weekend. Wondering if I should make a little road trip...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not buying NAM

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well someone has to get the first weenie tag every season....just sayin'

 

Lets make good posts in here. This is a storm thread.

He needs a breather.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not buying NAM

Like ever...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Like ever...

Yup.

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not buying NAM

What do you think is most likely?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Well done. Lol

In all honesty, the NAM is so unstable. I really don't weigh this much whether it came west 50 miles or east 50 miles. We'll see what the 18zgfs does. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

What do you think is most likely?

Like I've said,  I'd be suprised if at least e NE didn't score measurable and maybe advisory levels snows this wknd considering the magnitude of that trough. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just a reminder

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just a reminder

 

And the DGEX is in a cage defacting in the corner..

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In all honesty, the NAM is so unstable. I really don't weigh this much whether it came west 50 miles or east 50 miles. We'll see what the 18zgfs does. 

And given how bad it has been we wait till 0z. I think 0z tomorrow night seals the deal.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In all honesty, the NAM is so unstable. I really don't weigh this much whether it came west 50 miles or east 50 miles. We'll see what the 18zgfs does. 

You're going to miss it when it's gone.

But I really don't know what fundamentally about it causes this firehose effect at the end of the run. I mean it's a similar resolution to the Euro, and the Euro doesn't get that wild at day 7. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You're going to miss it when it's gone.

But I really don't know what fundamentally about it causes this firehose effect at the end of the run. I mean it's a similar resolution to the Euro, and the Euro doesn't get that wild at day 7. 

Being nonhydrostatic? 

[ineedsnow]

Gfs looks flat

[dryslot]

Late tug back to the NW on the 18z GFS, Looks like it came west a tic or two from 12z

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Late tug back to the NW on the 18z GFS, Looks like it came west a tic or two from 12z

It did but not by much... Still pretty flat

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Late tug back to the NW on the 18z GFS, Looks like it came west a tic or two from 12z

Not surprising.  GFS has won the late to the party award 15 years running.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It did but not by much... Still pretty flat

That what a tic or two means, If it looked like the Ukie that would have been a sizeable shift..............lol

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Being nonhydrostatic? 

Probably. It'll be interesting to see the parallel NGGPS sometime in the next 1-1.5 years.

[CoastalWx]

That was a better look for sure. Not that you expect a jump in 6 hrs, but compare the look from hr 66-72 vs hr 72-78 at 12z. A better look overall of the low from better H5 consolidation.

[dryslot]

Baby steps, Still plenty of time.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah better than 12z, but 12z was pretty awful...veyr far SE, so not a surprise it came back a bit.

[Ericjcrash]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a better look for sure. Not that you expect a jump in 6 hrs, but compare the look from hr 66-72 vs hr 72-78 at 12z. A better look overall of the low from better H5 consolidation.

Yeah HR 66 h5 is considerably better than 12z just gets together too late.

[CoastalWx]

Also, anyone who is H5 savvy, checkout what happens to the vort in SW Quebec from hr 66 at 12z to hr 60 at 18z. LOL...WTF is the GFS doing with that?

[WintersComing]

Also, anyone who is H5 savvy, checkout what happens to the vort in SW Quebec from hr 66 at 12z to hr 60 at 18z. LOL...WTF is the GFS doing with that?

Looked like a huge jump east?


.

[WintersComing]

Looks like it’s digging hard SE but then pops well NE


.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

 

Looked like a huge jump east?


.

 

It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday).