December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[dendrite]

9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like AFA will be an important sounding tonight, along with CYEV (Inuvik). Doesn't look like Barter Island has launched a balloon in a while, so that's out.

That will be the northern progress of the shortwave before it begins the dive south.

Bump for you guys arguing RAOBs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Trough is hanging back a bit more through hr 48...

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The the observation network is not as dense near the arctic, so we will avail ourselves of denser sounding data as it travels southward. 

Yes closer to the US/Canadian border

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. a little less progressive for what that is worth...

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like a clean whiff this run.

[ineedsnow]

Gfs misses

[dryslot]

Its crap, Barely scrapes SE MA

[ORH_wxman]

It's slower and the northern stream looks better...those are both good things...but it is just escaping east...not allowing itself to be tugged back in time by the time N stream dives in for the partial phase.

 

S stream dragged slightly early on and that might be the difference.

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

Canadian well SE as well. That's the writing on the wall.

[ajisai]

Nam sniffing out a whiff?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Canadian well SE as well. That's the writing on the wall.

We all knew it sniffed glue.

I'll give it 24 more hours.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

How have you seen the GGEM already?

[dryslot]

GFS gets tugged back late north like the Nam did and gets precip into NE and DE Maine.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ajisai said:

Nam sniffing out a whiff?

Maybe. Looks like we had a classic over correction west for a cycle of two. Toss this piece of crap system to the moon 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

As Will stated the GFS is starting to show a non GFS camp solution, it takes time for this model to correct its horrible progressive bias

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

As Will stated the GFS is starting to show a non GFS camp solution, it takes time for this model to correct its horrible progressive bias

You have a way with words.....def. the road less traveled-

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

How have you seen the GGEM already?

The Black and White maps come  out early

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[Ericjcrash]

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

With such an amplified PNA ridge and Greenland block, I think models might be breaking down the block too soon, I think this pattern modeled currently will become more intense and slower as we head towards this weekend into the early to mid week next week, this will favor at least two snowstorms

[ineedsnow]

Nam gfs and canadian all ots... Next

[ORH_wxman]

It's too bad the baroclinic zone is barely escaping east because that is a sweet northern stream....not giving up on it yet, but the southern vort max dragging its heels isn't good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's too bad the baroclinic zone is barely escaping east because that is a sweet northern stream....not giving up on it yet, but the southern vort max dragging its heels isn't good.

That is the trend I noted early on.....but wasn't sure of the impact.

Makes sense.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the trend I noted early on.....but wasn't sure of the impact.

Makes sense.

Yeah we're basically working with two main parts...the northern stream diving down and the southern vortmax that moves across the gulf coast...if that stays intact nicely and then is able to round the up the coast along the east wall of the northern stream shortwave, then that is the perfectly phased scenario...prob like a Ukie from 12z....we need at least a partial iteration of that. When the southern stream drags its heels, we end up with much less oomph on the eastern side of the trough to force the whole thing north.

The trend at 00z on all guidance is to drag the southern stream....the NAM trended enough better on the northern stream to make up for it a bit and still get a scraper....the GGEM and GFS have not.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Will, I would tend to favor a more amped up flow than modeled currently, look at the water vapor imagery, the flow over the intercontinental west is favoring a north to south flow with the ridge retrograding westward towards the East Pacific

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’ll give it to 12z but I’m pretty much ready to throw in the towel now. Moving in the wrong direction 

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll give it to 12z but I’m pretty much ready to throw in the towel now. Moving in the wrong direction 

I would wait till tomorrow night.  

 

When Harvey goes light, pay attention.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

00z GFS didn't see the west coast ridge retrograding westward in the short term like it is right now via water vapor imagery, this is leading to a further west movement of the north to south jet on the east side of the west coast ridge, allowing arctic air to dive in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and into western TX allowing colder surface temps to allow for snow to fall over west Texas

[ORH_wxman]

Gosh, euro might have looked at least as good if not a little better than 12z. I guess we will have to wait and see if the other 00z runs were too pessimistic. The 00z ukie came back to reality though it is still the biggest hit of the models. 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

Nammy whammy, congrats ENE: 

[ORH_wxman]

06z NAM with huge improvements now. As usual, take NAM with a grain of salt. Tries to give warning snows for much of eastern southern New England and then into some of Maine. 

Cant see QPF on EPS but the mean H5 and slp look decent.