DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 temps look good, kuchera ratios look good too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 49 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Looking a little dry right now but hopefully that will change. Oooops! Says gfsGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: temps look good, kuchera ratios look good too. The placement of the precip max is still a bit suspicious to me, but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is trending towards the EURO.. (shocker) Sending the energy and trough more to the SW The GFS is grossly overdone with that whole cold push in all likelihood. My guess is this won’t be a snow event for the most part anywhere south or east of a BHM to just north of GSP line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: The placement of the precip max is still a bit suspicious to me, but ok. NM, now that the next map was posted. I would be extremely pleased if that occurred. This winter would get no lower grade than a B from me, regardless of what happens from here on out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: SV crude clown map has 4-6 inches over central and eastern NC I like the earlier development of precip shield over GA! Has a lot better look for most , especially RAH area! Good trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 CMC was improved...it pretty much just has flurries over NC, but has a storm rolling east off the NC coast....5h trough was likely a little better (I haven't seen it yet) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Don't understand why the cold has to be overestimated, I mean nobody bought the cold air for the last outbreak, and it was UNDERestimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't understand why the cold has to be overestimated, I mean nobody bought the cold air for the last outbreak, and it was UNDERestimated The setup out west isn’t quite as favorable as the ridging isn’t as pronounced so I wouldn’t think we would see things setup as far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS goes from nothing to this in one run. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Honestly, the sounding looked really good for GSO at 108. Saturation goes all the way up to the 200MB level of the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS is starting to get a clue but I expect this type of setup to be a heart breaker as you approach areas like Asheville and Mount Airy. May not know till the day of on who gets 1-3" and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 That's a pretty efficient snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Honestly, the sounding looked really good for GSO at 120. Saturation goes all the way up to the 200MB level of the atmosphere. What was that January ultimatum again? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The setup out west isn’t quite as favorable as the ridging isn’t as pronounced so I wouldn’t think we would see things setup as far south That could also lead to a further N and W track, less suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: NM, now that the next map was posted. I would be extremely pleased if that occurred. This winter would get no lower grade than a B from me, regardless of what happens from here on out. I think this is Raleigh's year CR. I have no confidence in whatever this clipper/Miller B/late coastal thing is for the western/southern piedmont but it just seems like it wants to snow in eastern NC. Hope you get to take down your snow shields! Pretty cool to have a pop up threat for somewhere in the SE though... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: What was that January ultimatum again? I'll come back wearing a sombrero and mustache. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Shortwave is trending slower(blocking) and digging more southwest. More people have a chance if that trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Textbook marginal risk of severe storms to snow in exactly 7 days for eastern NC. Lol the social media hounds will be going wild on that little tidbit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: CMC was improved...it pretty much just has flurries over NC, but has a storm rolling east off the NC coast....5h trough was likely a little better (I haven't seen it yet) Here it is. As you said improved from last run that showed nothing: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Shortwave is trending slower(blocking) and digging more southwest. More people have a chance if that trend continues. Does this mean that we might have to worry about a warm nose at some point or is this a different type of setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This is the one. Start the thread, CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just for the fun of the discussion, RDU would go from low 30s to the upper teens during the event. I would suspect there would be some high ratios. **If this happened as depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Does this mean that we might have to worry about a warm nose at some point or is this a different type of setup? Puts people more south and east at more risk,its a fine line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I like the EURO it really picks up on a few things. Zilch for north Georgia into south-west NC really makes it hard to get good snow storms for the mountains, foothills, western Piedmont, northern Piedmont and the trends will likely be similar to the current solutions or east. Not digging south-west this time may help those Greensboro to Raleigh, maybe Charlotte, get on the action this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Does this mean that we might have to worry about a warm nose at some point or is this a different type of setup? The only thing I can pick at with this setup is it's a little warm at the SFC when it begins but evaporational cooling should do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Just for the fun of the discussion, RDU would go from low 30s to the upper teens during the event. I would suspect there would be some high ratios. **If this happened as depicted. $$$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 While it still shows rain, January 22nd time frame bares watching with arctic air leaving before the moisture and behind the moisture. Any difference in timing, wrong calculation in snow cover, could send parts of the South-East into a big dog around that time frame. Bares watching. Please bare with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Red1976Red said: While it still shows rain, January 22nd time frame bares watching with arctic air leaving before the moisture and behind the moisture. Any difference in timing, wrong calculation in snow cover, could send parts of the South-East into a big dog around that time frame. Bares watching. Please bare with me. We'll let you go ahead and bare with yourself, rather than joining in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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