Jackstraw Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The GEM would put a big dent in my 3 year deficit lol. I smell freezing rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Long way out but end of the month looks intriguing. One thing at a time, the Gen-XYZ crowd would be proud of that post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Weird to see the GGEM the slowest with the s/w. That really is the key. Looks like a pump and dump of cold air anyway you go about it. By the end of the month the pac jet starts its run.................pray the ggem is right for once in its life. IWX jumps the gun with an SWS already for the Christmas cold wave. Now that's early! Guessing their confidence is pretty darn high on that component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Weird to see the GGEM the slowest with the s/w. That really is the key. Looks like a pump and dump of cold air anyway you go about it. By the end of the month the pac jet starts its run.................pray the ggem is right for once in its life.You should change your screen name to "pacific jet."Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Guest said: You should change your screen name to "pacific jet." Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: Funny I was just thinking to myself that cyclone is probably going to come in here with a pessimistic post. Maybe I should play the lottery lol? lol, I spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm not buying what the models are selling, till the planes sniff this one out. Mind you, I am doing a fair share of window shopping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I would take a poor mans 1/5/14. One of my favorite winter storms ever. Such a great storm for our area 8”+ followed by below zero tempsSent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The late next week storm continues to look impressive on both 0z GFS/GGEM. GGEM has 48 straight hours and probably longer of snow for parts of IL/IN/OH. GFS did something similar but had 2 waves of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Ukie also has a little something for Christmas. Would probably be high ratio stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The late next week storm continues to look impressive on both 0z GFS/GGEM. GGEM has 48 straight hours and probably longer of snow for parts of IL/IN/OH. GFS did something similar but had 2 waves of snow. The long duration aspect is striking, and that has been advertised on multiple models and multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The long duration aspect is striking, and that has been advertised on multiple models and multiple runs. Reminds me somewhat of the pre Christmas 2004 storm. That was a fairly long duration I think maybe 30 hours total even though it came in 2 waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 00z Euro should be somewhat better for the 24th/25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro should be somewhat better for the 24th/25th. Carbon copy of the ukmet. A big step away from a good system though, the upper low is absolutely destroying the southern stream and shearing out the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro should be somewhat better for the 24th/25th. It does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 00z Euro should be somewhat better for the 24th/25th.Verbatim it's a nice high ratio advisory type event for here. Needless to say, confidence remains low in that period until we see some sort of consistency. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Carbon copy of the ukmet. A big step away from a good system though, the upper low is absolutely destroying the southern stream and shearing out the energy. All I want is snow for the holiday...I don't care how it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Carbon copy of the ukmet. A big step away from a good system though, the upper low is absolutely destroying the southern stream and shearing out the energy. Considering our almost complete lack of snow on this side of the lake this month, we'd pay money for that run to verify Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Verbatim it's a nice high ratio advisory type event for here. Needless to say, confidence remains low in that period until we see some sort of consistency. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk The GFS is a holdout at this point with not indicating anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Considering our almost complete lack of snow on this side of the lake this month, we'd pay money for that run to verify Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Oh don't get me wrong, it is a nice little event but I am looking for something spectacular which this would be just a nice holiday treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Watching the latest runs of the GFS, I'm reminded of a casino one arm bandit. BAR - BAR - BAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, DAFF said: Watching the latest runs of the GFS, I'm reminded of a casino one arm bandit. BAR - BAR - BAR a few days ago there was talk of 50's on friday for chicago, thats been blown to bits so thats progress..just not enough moisture to do much, oh well..maybe end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: All I want is snow for the holiday...I don't care how it happens. I'd be surprised if we don't see a white Christmas. Given the fact we haven't encountered a real synoptic snow event in over a year that's a big deal. My optimism runs counter to most of the pessimism that permeates this board. Another fine write up by LOT again this AM....btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Baum said: I'd be surprised if we don't see a white Christmas. Given the fact we haven't encountered a real synoptic snow event in over a year that's a big deal. My optimism runs counter to most of the pessimism that permeates this board. Another fine write up by LOT again this AM....btw. Chicago's snow drought last winter was crazy. But dont forget the March snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Caution flags acknowledged with run total ensemble mean snowfall products, but the last 2 runs of the EPS mean are the best looking I can recall for the subforum as a whole since these graphics became readily available. Looking at the individual members, there's very few total clunkers and more solid to substantial hits than "meh" members. Perhaps this means there will be less failure modes moving forward during the cold -EPO driven pattern for as long as it lasts to get more areas in on the fun outside of central/northern Wisconsin, MI and the lake effect belts. The main worry will be suppression at times if the TPV crushes short-waves south. It does however look like there will be periods of quasi-zonal flow with embedded waves as higher heights try to impinge northward tightening the baroclinic zone, while the folded over -EPO will act to provide excellent low level cold. This will be a good setup for episodes of overrunning snow. We also can't rule out strong synoptic systems, as energy will be able to come ashore from the Pacific under the ridge, vs. what happened with the high amplitude +PNA ridge that set up too far east. I was certainly too optimistic too soon for what turned out to be a crappy pattern except for LES and those that scored on the clippers. But I think there are good reasons to be optimistic for the late December through early January period and hopefully beyond if the southeast ridge doesn't become too dominant. After whatever happens, if anything, on Christmas Eve, there's pretty good agreement/consistency in the first widespread threat being mid to late next week. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yes, I'm definitely liking the model trend for next week. They are backing off of the extreme cold with the PV diving down into Iowa. The trend is toward solid cold(highs in the teens instead of near or below zero) with some good pacific energy able to move west to east across the country and pull moisture from a wide-open gulf(finally) up into the cold. Many of us could at least see some light to moderate snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EVERY MAN A KING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: EVERY MAN A KING Reminds me of Valentines Day 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: EVERY MAN A KING The Minneapolis Screw Hole special right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EVERY MAN A KING Already posted this in banter thread. All Aboard Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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