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hlcater

November 2017 Discussion

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking more at the setup for Friday, I think there's a decent shot at 60 at ORD.  Warmer thermal profiles than Monday (925 mb temps of 10-11C) and clouds really shouldn't be an issue for most of the day. Out west toward cyclone and hawkeye, they should get deep into the 60s.

Friday's record at MLI is 66.  That might get approached.

NAM is particularly offensive.  It's like it doesn't know how to mix with plenty of sun and strong S/SW flow.  Likely widespread 7-10 degrees underdone.

NAMMW_sfc_temp_057.png.2ef044c258443138d6b87c771eef8669.png 

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3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I wasn't implying that there's nothing to follow, but temperature forecasts aren't that exciting this time of year. I want the first hint of real winter weather for those of us not in Northern MI.

Well, we had/have the cold, but not the snow.  Sort of sucks but not that unusual to "waste" the cold in Nov.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, we had/have the cold, but not the snow.  Sort of sucks but not that unusual to "waste" the cold in Nov.

There's not much point in cold if you have no snow. It's like having snow...but the snow is slushy and black with dirt. You need a nice snow pack with fresh white snow and have it stay cold enough that the snow is like sand so you can walk in low top shoes without issue.

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7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

3 inches from yesterdays lake effect.  Temp was in the teens and snowing/blowing all afternoon.  Winter is here for good... although 43 on Friday will be pleasant.

I understand a little where Will is coming from.  I have a Cousin downstate and one in N Indiana.  I dread visiting anymore.  I know that sounds awful, but after 5 years in the woods where red lights don't exist, paved roads are a luxury, and there isn't swarms of people and cars and lights, it is a bit overwhelming visiting, and I can't wait for the trip back north. I like the area in Michigan from Houghton Lake on north and especially Gaylord/Charlevoix area to the tip of the mitt, but crossing the bridge into the UP is like a gateway to another country... Things are different, life is different, there isn't this mass consumption type atmosphere and mentality... quiet and slow and peaceful is a rule.

This is soooooo what I long for. Southern Michiganders are SOOOOO impatient and so caught up in their own little fast-paced worlds. I can't wait to live somewhere with like-minded people as me, who like to stop, take a deep breath, and enjoy the beautiful creation. Some day hopefully...in the next couple years...

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Light LES flurries off NW flow through the day today added a nice touch to some chilly conditions. 

5th day this month with flakes flying which seems higher in my memory than recent Novembers. 

Snow Log so far (sorry for metric):

2017-2018

First flakes: Oct 31 (LES)

Event // Season Total

Nov 5: 1.0cm // 1.0cm
Nov 9-10: 2.0cm // 3.0cm
Nov 18: 0.0cm // 3.0cm (wrap around from a rainy system... no accumulation, above zero at surface) 
Nov 19: 1.0cm // 4.0cm (LES, some +SN moments)
Nov 22: DAB // 4.0cm (Light LES flurries)

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This morning's euro has six straight days at or above 50 here, beginning Friday, with three of those days above 60.  I don't want this kind of stuff all winter, but after a few cold weeks it'll feel nice.  I'll be able to get all the winter yard and garage prep finished up.

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I wasn't implying that there's nothing to follow, but temperature forecasts aren't that exciting this time of year. I want the first hint of real winter weather for those of us not in Northern MI.

12z GFS nearly pitched a shut out for precip for most of the region over the entire 16 days.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This morning's euro has six straight days at or above 50 here, beginning Friday, with three of those days above 60.  I don't want this kind of stuff all winter, but after a few cold weeks it'll feel nice.  I'll be able to get all the winter yard and garage prep finished up.

Yeah if there's no prospects for snow it might as well be warm AFAIC.  Agree with Hoosier about Friday.  Looks like another overachiever.  

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15 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I wasn't trying to say that southern Michigan is bad because it's warm, I'm emphasizing how strange the difference is between the Keweenaw and NWL/Saginaw.

 

And about population - I'm used to living in northern Maine/northern Michigan since 2001. It feels insane whenever I actually go to a city. I mean...Marquette feels HUGE to me.

Marquette is a nice town. There's a very small section of it that definitely has an urban feel, but you go outside the city and bam. Isolation. When I went to the UP last winter it was crazy the difference in snow from Marquette versus JUST outside the city. Obviously a fresh snowstorm is anyone's game, and ive seen storms that jackpot the heart of Detroit, but go into Detroit in mid-winter with old snowcover and it's definitely less than surrounding burbs. I think that's the case anywhere. But the extreme I saw in Marquette - yowser.

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Apparently this would have been a very warm month if it weren't for the stupid HLB. Now the non-stop troughing in the east makes sense...

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9 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Apparently this would have been a very warm month if it weren't for the stupid HLB. Now the non-stop troughing in the east makes sense...

The past is in the past. I hope you can find some time over the next week to enjoy the mild temperatures we will be having. It looks like your 50s (maybe 60s?) will return for a bit. Regardless of what happens, sometimes it is very hard for us to remember to be thankful for whatever we do have. May you have a peaceful and blessed Thanksgiving!

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

The latest HRRRx has the QC reaching 66 tomorrow, and Cedar Rapids 64.  CR would break their old record of 63, and MLI would tie it at 66.  The lack of clouds, the perfect timing of the incoming cold front, and dry ground look optimal.  Let's go for 70!  :tomato:

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

The latest HRRRx has the QC reaching 66 tomorrow, and Cedar Rapids 64.  CR would break their old record of 63, and MLI would tie it at 66.  The lack of clouds, the perfect timing of the incoming cold front, and dry ground look optimal.  Let's go for 70!  :tomato:

Wouldn't be surprised if somebody hit 70. Maybe in that area near where IA/IL/MO come together.  If not there, then STL is a good candidate.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

The latest HRRRx has the QC reaching 66 tomorrow, and Cedar Rapids 64.  CR would break their old record of 63, and MLI would tie it at 66.  The lack of clouds, the perfect timing of the incoming cold front, and dry ground look optimal.  Let's go for 70!  :tomato:

Yikes!  Chestnut Mountain kind of over your way fired up the snow guns last night.  I think they're just wasting water at this point!

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2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Why do you have Sunday and Monday written in yellow?

I forgot to do the yellow text by accident for the weekend days. The weekday text colors are normally white.

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Happy Thanksgiving all! I know the pattern is boring but at least the sun has been out. Been some gorgeous late fall days and great sunsets lately, so I'll take it and remember it fondly when we're in the constant grey of January. B)

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'll go 68 at MLI and 62 at ORD tomorrow. Was tempted to even go a little warmer but that is already significantly above guidance.

Sounds pretty good.  Latest HRRRx has MLI and CID hitting 67 now.  The GFS and Euro have been a little quicker in moving the 850mb thermal ridge out of Iowa compared to the NAM, but due to the NAM's mixing issues the NAM actually ends up quite a bit cooler.  DVN has been keeping highs in the lower 60s at both locations, but think they'll have to give in and bump that up by tomorrow morning.

 

1 hour ago, krfd said:

Yikes!  Chestnut Mountain kind of over your way fired up the snow guns last night.  I think they're just wasting water at this point!

Yeah that's not gonna work out too well for them the next week or so lol.  :yikes:

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