CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not a huge surprise there lol That just was weird and very unlike climo. I saw why it was doing it, but at the same time...something just didn't look right. The euro does this sometimes..it goes nuts with wanting to wrap up and stall lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well what makes the setup weird is that you have a setup around here that isn't acting anything like a Nina. > Strong -NAO > Popping a +PNA ridge > Strong subtropical jet with a crazy train of disturbances influencing SoCal (which you'd expect in a strong NinO) LAX has had nearly 8 inches of rain the past few days. In years I lived there (15), I can remember 3 months with 10 or more. I think Feb 78, March 83, and ironically March 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That just was weird and very unlike climo. I saw why it was doing it, but at the same time...something just didn't look right. The euro does this sometimes..it goes nuts with wanting to wrap up and stall lows. But those are how we get epic blizzards. It's gotta be a weird setup to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really? I'm the total opposite, I LOVE watching snowfall at night, makes for a very beautiful sight and everything seems so relaxing and peaceful...the tranquil feeling is very soothing. Then every once in a while you hear a loud rumbling of a plow going by and it adds some extra "noise" to the background. Then having a full moon shinning brightly off the freshly covered snowpack...it's about as close to heaven as you can get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I've just sifted through the 26 pages of comments/images that were posted since I went to bed. I smiled. I grimaced. But, finally--here's one that gives a nice grin. Still concerned I'll be on the outside looking in. Appears to me that the correction vector at this point is east, not west. Hopefully will at least get a moderate snow and some wind in GC. The EC has come up north like I had hoped, but I'm bummed it's become so progressive. That HPC map is a thing of beauty. I'd be more worried about the E rection vector than the Co rrection vector. Mike you have been psychologically damaged by the last year of being burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 But those are how we get epic blizzards. It's gotta be a weird setup to do it. No, I mean to have it just close and stall so far south like that. Even HPC noted it. Edit: I'm talking about the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not a huge surprise there lol yeah. i'm curious to see what it does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 But those are how we get epic blizzards. It's gotta be a weird setup to do it. not like the ec was doing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yes you could but ......given where the storm is coming from the most likely way to accomplish that would be seaward then hooking.....and for all practical purposes we just had that last weekend. now wether this could be a "similiar version" but 150 miles or so more west is my question. so long as i see over a foot i "DGAF" how it happens so long as it snows hard. I would be very discouraged if I were to be relying on a hook scenario out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm telling you, this is a mod event at best. You are shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So some big changes with the handling of that trough over Quebec on the GFS and Euro. Very positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No, I mean to have it just close and stall so far south like that. Even HPC noted it. Edit: I'm talking about the surface low. Dec 92 did it to some extent as did Jan 96... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah and it also lost the epic stall. Yeah--give us the current track AND the stall and we'll have a grand old end to 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That HPC map is a thing of beauty. I'd be more worried about the E rection vector than the Co rrection vector. Mike you have been psychologically damaged by the last year of being burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dec 92 did it to some extent as did Jan 96... right? Jan '96 at least got to ACY before moving ene or so, but yeah Dec '92 did. Still dam rare..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Jan '96 at least got to ACY before moving ene or so, but yeah Dec '92 did. Still dam rare..lol. Yeah it's the kind of crazy setup that can get us the monster winds AND snow. It's hard to do but that's the way to do it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Local news sites seem to be steering away from hyping this storm. I know its still early, but not much has been said. WHDH threw out 6-12 inches, maybe more. For the most part though not much has been said - when do you think this storm will start to get some attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah and it also lost the epic stall. I don't really see a stalling system here. H 250 wind anomalies are SW-SSW not E or NE. You need NE-E winds to get a stall and long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah it's the kind of crazy setup that can get us the monster winds AND snow. It's hard to do but that's the way to do it lol It's the kind of set up that makes us continually look at the models and wish, hope, celebrate, or cry depending on the outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't really see a stalling system here. H 250 wind anomalies are SW-SSW not E or NE. You need NE-E winds to get a stall and long duration event. Glad to see you out here, Andy. What's your take on this? Will it show any love to your dma? Are you headed to da Bronx for Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah it's the kind of crazy setup that can get us the monster winds AND snow. It's hard to do but that's the way to do it lol What should be obvious to all is the massive hole carved in the atmosphere, I do not understand the fetish with tracking the big L, QPF maps are and will be underdone 8h inflow is as good as it gets. Verbatim this is 93 for us just in a mucho better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't really see a stalling system here. H 250 wind anomalies are SW-SSW not E or NE. You need NE-E winds to get a stall and long duration event. The key is getting it to occlude at just the right time so it slows just under. That is what the Euro and GFS are hinting at for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What should be obvious to all is the massive hole carved in the atmosphere, I do not understand the fetish with tracking the big L, QPF maps are and will be underdone 8h inflow is as good as it gets. Verbatim this is 93 for us just in a mucho better position. lol not really... different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dec 92 did it to some extent as did Jan 96... right? bad analysis sir!! haha.. just lol at the 6z thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is up to 6hrs..... I have a meeting at 9.. I may blow it off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What should be obvious to all is the massive hole carved in the atmosphere, I do not understand the fetish with tracking the big L, QPF maps are and will be underdone 8h inflow is as good as it gets. Verbatim this is 93 for us just in a mucho better position. Amazing dynamics to be sure. But the general low moisture / low QPF progs are somewhat disconcerting. Possibly due to the still dominant westerly flow over the west Atlantic, limiting moisture convergence in the storm. Still, I'd think there'd be a decent connection to the Gulf too. Model guidance doesn't underdo QPF too often. Usually the other way around. And no, not really like 93 at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Glad to see you out here, Andy. What's your take on this? Will it show any love to your dma? Are you headed to da Bronx for Christmas? Perhaps part of the DMA still hemming and hawwing and keeping things close to the vest for now. I really think tomorrow's OP and ensemble runs will help a lot. As of right now I think along and south of I90 in NYS and MA could see some snow..maybe moderate to heavy amts from S'rn Berkshire County south thru the Litchfield Hills and beck west to POU and SWF. I just really see 2 BIG cut-offs with this system 1) those who get measurable snow and those who don't. 2nd cut-off will be in the snow "getters" zone with the potential for quite a gradient from light tots to heavy ones. I really Like the east half of LI thru SE CT and to around BOS for potentially some real heavy amounts and along with a lot of wind. 850 wind anomalies have been hammering ELI and SE New England past several runs with -3 to -3.5 NE-ENE winds so for me confidence is growing for these locales to be in on the party. AS for Christmas in the Bronx haven't done that in over 15 years. Family and friends will be at my place tomorrow night for the Dago Fish Feast on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is up to 6hrs..... I have a meeting at 9.. I may blow it off.. For the 84 hour NAM??lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Perhaps part of the DMA still hemming and hawwing and keeping things close to the vest for now. I really think tomorrow's OP and ensemble runs will help a lot. As of right now I think along and south of I90 in NYS and MA could see some snow..maybe moderate to heavy amts from S'rn Berkshire County south thru the Litchfield Hills and beck west to POU and SWF. I just really see 2 BIG cut-offs with this system 1) those who get measurable snow and those who don't. 2nd cut-off will be in the snow "getters" zone with the potential for quite a gradient from light tots to heavy ones. I really Like the east half of LI thru SE CT and to around BOS for potentially some real heavy amounts and along with a lot of wind. 850 wind anomalies have been hammering ELI and SE New England past several runs with -3 to -3.5 NE-ENE winds so for me confidence is growing for these locales to be in on the party. AS for Christmas in the Bronx haven't done that in over 15 years. Family and friends will be at my place tomorrow night for the Dago Fish Feast on Christmas Eve. Haddock?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Perhaps part of the DMA still hemming and hawwing and keeping things close to the vest for now. I really think tomorrow's OP and ensemble runs will help a lot. As of right now I think along and south of I90 in NYS and MA could see some snow..maybe moderate to heavy amts from S'rn Berkshire County south thru the Litchfield Hills and beck west to POU and SWF. I just really see 2 BIG cut-offs with this system 1) those who get measurable snow and those who don't. 2nd cut-off will be in the snow "getters" zone with the potential for quite a gradient from light tots to heavy ones. I really Like the east half of LI thru SE CT and to around BOS for potentially some real heavy amounts and along with a lot of wind. 850 wind anomalies have been hammering ELI and SE New England past several runs with -3 to -3.5 NE-ENE winds so for me confidence is growing for these locales to be in on the party. AS for Christmas in the Bronx haven't done that in over 15 years. Family and friends will be at my place tomorrow night for the Dago Fish Feast on Christmas Eve. Have you fired up the TANDY for this event? Agree with your thoughts here. Like HFD/ORH/NYC points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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