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2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


Powerball

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7 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

That's why these snowfall maps are useless. How many times has it shown your backyard getting buried and ultimately you don't see a flake? 

Where do you get these maps? It looks like pivotal weather, but I couldn’t find that AF/Kuchera ratio for the whole run?

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Tonight will mark the 7th anniversary of the "super clipper" that dropped 9"+ on this area.  Was a great start to what turned out to be a phenomenal winter.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=5&year=2010&month=12&day=3&hour=16&minute=10

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Here are annual snow % of normal plots from two years out of The Snowy Seventies. These were highly cold winters and they both had above average snow for Toledo OH. The year of 77-78 held the record snowfall for Toledo until 2013-14. I guess the Gulf Coast got trace to a few inches in the winter of 76-77.

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ZCMMGNy.png

 

 

3NpOcrY.png

 

 

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17 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I just found this on my pc. Don't know why I saved it, but...um...probably won't verify, even with great head start.

814temp.new.gif

Hmm, we'll see.  This map is since the 1st of the month but in any event, we are putting up some big departures (including tomorrow as well, at least via midnight/early morning highs).

 

MonthTDeptUS.png.45f6862401dfe55965e2cf4d129be0c2.png

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12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Most people here don't remember this about me. I'm from Atlanta. I was 18 when I finally moved north to Maine. I was actually friends with many people on this board way back in the 1990s when I still lived in Atlanta and when we were stuck at the weatherchannel forums, I think it was. We also did mIRC, etc. But anyways...back before the 'superstorm' in 1993, I saw a storm that was nearly identical to the one in that image above. Maybe not to other areas, but it was that way in Atlanta. I was living then in northern Atlanta. Was just a kid. But this one night we got around 2 inches of snow - that was dead friggin massive in my mind. The next day, given my life crushing obsession with snow, my parents drove me down south of Atlanta to around Newnan, etc. They had around 6+ inches of snow. I had NEVER seen that much snow in my life on the ground. I hadn't even seen it cover the grass.

 

Just wanted to share that.

So you were in Atlanta for the Superstorm? That must've been a sight.

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Regarding the upcoming pattern.  Cold, dry, and suppressed as far as the eye can see....I honestly would rather have 40s and rain, at least the bare ground wouldn't freeze up and cut our work off.

I may be wrong but wasn't winter 1976-77 a dry cold winter?  Any analog value to this winter?

#worst_weather_pattern

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On 11/30/2017 at 0:32 PM, IWXwx said:

I am trying to reign in my enthusiasm for the upcoming flip. The guys in the LES belts have every right to be giddy, as it is setting up to be an exciting period for those regions. However, I have some reservations for those of us relying on nice cutter or bowling ball. I understand the positives that have been discussed:

-The strength and longevity of the trough/cold air, including the reinforcing dump of arctic air being depicted near mid-month, resulting in little chance of precip type issues

-The nice snowpack being laid down along/north of the border, making for a nice setup for the rest of winter

-The mention of a trough retrograde, allowing moisture/system snows to pump into the subforum, etc.

Looking at the models in terms of sensible weather is a little disheartening to me. Those worried about cold and dry may have point. I am seeing being dependent on a couple of weak clippers to deliver any goods except for the slight trough relaxation which allows the mid-month spread-the-wealth storm in GFS weenie-land. I'm not going to hang my hat on that one yet, although it is the time period to watch for SOMETHING.

The GFS and EPS both point to a trough reinforcement after that time period, possibly leading to more dry/cold.

I hope that I am completely wrong and know that this may be a nice setup for later in the month, but I have a bad feeling that I may spend early to mid December freezing my reasoner for a few mood flakes.

EDIT: I might have put this in the wrong thread. Maybe it belongs in medium range thread, or better yet, in the complaint thread. lol

 

BUMP (And moved to the proper thread).

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6 hours ago, buckeye said:

Regarding the upcoming pattern.  Cold, dry, and suppressed as far as the eye can see....I honestly would rather have 40s and rain, at least the bare ground wouldn't freeze up and cut our work off.

I may be wrong but wasn't winter 1976-77 a dry cold winter?  Any analog value to this winter?

#worst_weather_pattern

Every time a cold pattern is in place people always say cold dry and suppressed. This pattern looks good for clippers. 1976-77 was a cold dry winter though I don't know if it is an analog. It's actually been a while since we have had a true cold dry wnter. Stretches of it yes, but talking an entire winter of cold and dry.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

buckeye and IWX's favorite... cold with limited snow followed by rain.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.thumb.png.84514dfef02b04d6e70b7d9b1633c1bf.png

Oh you know that is coming, 100%. Also anyone getting excited about clippers needs to realize with an upper low this strong, they are going to be shred apart for the most part, and moisture starved. You need a bit of a buckle in the pattern for a clipper to go a bit hybrid and actually do something meaningful, I don't see any of that happening at this point, just a bit of dusty yawners.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Oh you know that is coming, 100%. Also anyone getting excited about clippers needs to realize with an upper low this strong, they are going to be shred apart for the most part, and moisture starved. You need a bit of a buckle in the pattern for a clipper to go a bit hybrid and actually do something meaningful, I don't see any of that happening at this point, just a bit of dusty yawners.

I would've welcomed this type of pattern right before Christmas.  At least you'd have the cold and you'd know that whatever falls would stick around.  Really want to avoid a spoiler this year.  And having snow on the ground with temps above freezing/melting counts as a spoiler in my book.

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8 hours ago, buckeye said:

Regarding the upcoming pattern.  Cold, dry, and suppressed as far as the eye can see....I honestly would rather have 40s and rain, at least the bare ground wouldn't freeze up and cut our work off.

I may be wrong but wasn't winter 1976-77 a dry cold winter?  Any analog value to this winter?

#worst_weather_pattern

Generally speaking, yes, but it had some potent clippers and one big dog app runner type storm in early January.  Not near as epic as 77-78 but far from awful and much better than what I'm seeing for the current pattern over the next 10 days.  Right now I don't see it as a good analog to this winter but it's still early.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Wow, Winter Storm Warnings for Extreme South Texas, when was the last time that happened? Considering many places in the sub haven't even seen any meaaningful snow yet. 

bro.png

2004 More than likely is the last time they had snow that far south.

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