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2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

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I know people will disagree but I'm really digging this summer in fall thing.  Yeah, it cuts into the amount of time for more typical fall weather, but I'll take bonus summer.  Plus I love extremes (both ways... I was fascinated by the extreme cold Feb 2015) so I want to see how many more 80s (or even 90s) we can rack up in October.

If we're not going to get some real storm/severe chances, at least there's this.

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50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I know people will disagree but I'm really digging this summer in fall thing.  Yeah, it cuts into the amount of time for more typical fall weather, but I'll take bonus summer.  Plus I love extremes (both ways... I was fascinated by the extreme cold Feb 2015) so I want to see how many more 80s (or even 90s) we can rack up in October.

If we're not going to get some real storm/severe chances, at least there's this.

Interesting you bring this up because me and Andy were discussing this earlier and both 6-10 and 8-14 day analog sets feature very active falls in the analog years:

bPmMLzt.gif

2bW4I3m.gif

Years that stand out 2007 2005 2004 1998 1994 1989 and analogs from earlier in the day showed 1957 as well. All 7 of them were active falls some up in this region some to the south. Of course if we want to roll over 2008 2006 2005 1999 1995 1990 and if I want to include 1956 even though that fall wasn't too active 1957 was. The roll over years only 2005 was a dud, the rest were active to in the case of 2008/1999/1957 hyperactive years for severe weather. All of those years except for 2004-2005 were either La Nina or a La Nina decayed in the winter.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, maybe there'll be some opportunities later in the season. 

I would bet there will be especially if we can manage to hang onto the moisture we have been seeing.

 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I know people will disagree but I'm really digging this summer in fall thing.  Yeah, it cuts into the amount of time for more typical fall weather, but I'll take bonus summer.  Plus I love extremes (both ways... I was fascinated by the extreme cold Feb 2015) so I want to see how many more 80s (or even 90s) we can rack up in October.

If we're not going to get some real storm/severe chances, at least there's this.

If it isn't going to snow, I want it to be as warm as possible for as long as possible. I do not like cold extremes, but enjoy the heat extremes as heat extremes around here are not quite "extreme" compared to you guys in the midwest. 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Interesting you bring this up because me and Andy were discussing this earlier and both 6-10 and 8-14 day analog sets feature very active falls in the analog years:

bPmMLzt.gif

2bW4I3m.gif

Years that stand out 2007 2005 2004 1998 1994 1989 and analogs from earlier in the day showed 1957 as well. All 7 of them were active falls some up in this region some to the south. Of course if we want to roll over 2008 2006 2005 1999 1995 1990 and if I want to include 1956 even though that fall wasn't too active 1957 was. The roll over years only 2005 was a dud, the rest were active to in the case of 2008/1999/1957 hyperactive years for severe weather. All of those years except for 2004-2005 were either La Nina or a La Nina decayed in the winter.

That looks like the pattern that existed all last winter aside from the SE ridge. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

That looks like the pattern that existed all last winter aside from the SE ridge. 

Yes and that pattern early in the year was quite active for severe weather.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Yes and that pattern early in the year was quite active for severe weather.

We've had the best severe weather season in decades here. Anyway to see how many tornadoes we've had this year, I think it's close to 10 in Western/Central New York, which is unprecedented. 

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If it isn't going to snow, I want it to be as warm as possible for as long as possible. I do not like cold extremes, but enjoy the heat extremes as heat extremes around here are not quite "extreme" compared to you guys in the midwest. 

Yeah, I noticed that Buffalo has never officially hit 100.  It makes sense when you consider geography and that west/southwest wind setups are generally how to do it (which is off the water there), but still, wow.  I think Chicago has done it about 65 times -- even with the official site being near the lake in the past -- but obviously no lake cooling there with west/southwest winds.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I noticed that Buffalo has never officially hit 100.  It makes sense when you consider geography and that west/southwest wind setups are generally how to do it (which is off the water there), but still, wow.  I think Chicago has done it about 65 times -- even with the official site being near the lake in the past -- but obviously no lake cooling there with west/southwest winds.

Yeah like you said, our warmest days are when the winds come out of the South/Southeast which are very rare. That is the downslope direction over the hills to the south. Rochester has had quite a few 100 degree days. The farther away from the lake you get the better. Dansville New York is the hottest location in New York State, they are usually always 5-6 degrees warmer than everyone else. 

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I know people will disagree but I'm really digging this summer in fall thing.  Yeah, it cuts into the amount of time for more typical fall weather, but I'll take bonus summer.  Plus I love extremes (both ways... I was fascinated by the extreme cold Feb 2015) so I want to see how many more 80s (or even 90s) we can rack up in October.

If we're not going to get some real storm/severe chances, at least there's this.

I don't like it but it doesn't bother me that much. Especially since we are missing the brunt. We are not in snow season yet. So as Powerball said get the warmth out of the way lol. As the leaves are changing I enjoy crisp days to accompany that but as i clearly see outside the color show goes on regardless. It seems to have slowed a bit from its super early start, but with much cooler weather coming im sure it accelerates again. Lets just say that I will be quick to jump on anyone jumping on anyone else this winter for rooting on anamolous cold hehe, as we see with almost every cold snap that is not accompanied by much snow. I personally am all about snow because at this latitude storm track and activeness are more important than temps. But I always prefer cold over warm. 

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More likely to see 100 degree temps during that time period tbh. It wouldn't even be cold enough for it to be snowing anyway. 

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Just now, rainsucks said:

More likely to see 100 degree temps during that time period tbh. It wouldn't even be cold enough for it to be snowing anyway. 

I would dial it back a bit, there can be snow in the UP by the 15th of October.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would dial it back a bit, there can be snow in the UP by the 15th of October.

Yes obviously it can snow there in mid October, but the fact that it's showing snow in S Wisconsin is laughable. 

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Just sick of these models having such severe troughing biases. Overdoes every single trough in the medium and long range and sometimes unrealistically shows a trough randomly appearing out of nowhere. 

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would dial it back a bit, there can be snow in the UP by the 15th of October.

Heck I've seen snowflakes fly here in mid October before.

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9 hours ago, rainsucks said:

More likely to see 100 degree temps during that time period tbh. It wouldn't even be cold enough for it to be snowing anyway. 

Come on man.  Milwaukee and Madison have both had measurable snow more than once prior to the 15th (with non-sticking flakes in the air on other days).  Milwaukee has not recorded a 90 degree temp in October and Madison has never gotten past 90.  Snow is pretty uncommon but 100 degrees in October in Wisconsin would rank near the top of all time shock records.

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9 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Yes obviously it can snow there in mid October, but the fact that it's showing snow in S Wisconsin is laughable. 

I've had 25" of snow on October 12th before. Snow in mid October is not rare at all. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've had 25" of snow on October 12th before. Snow in mid October is not rare at all. 

You talking about 2006?

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You talking about 2006?

Yeah, craziest storm ever. No power for 2 weeks lost almost all of our trees. Ski country here gets on average 1 LES storm every late October. Much rarer in the city though. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, craziest storm ever. No power for 2 weeks lost almost all of our trees. 

I remember following that one.  I wouldn't even want to guess the return rate on a storm like that in mid October for the Buffalo area.

I had lake effect snow on Oct 7-8, 2000.  Thunder/lightning and all.  I had been at the movies and it was just drizzling when I came out.  Then it flipped to heavy snow on the way home...big, fat flakes.  Marginal temps hurt the accumulation efficiency but it was a mess.  Enough to take down some branches in my neighborhood.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I have almost 30,000 posts.  Like omg.  Still about 4x less than the leading poster though lol

No one will touch his number, he purposely posts short posts to create volume plus posts literally every thought he has.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

No one will touch his number, he purposely posts short posts to create volume plus posts literally every thought he has.

You

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