Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Looks like the high temp today in Grand Forks will be -17, and-15 in Bismarck. Probably close to all time coldest high temps for December...although I’m sure there have been some colder highs in January. December record low maximum is -19 for Grand Forks and -20 for Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The seven day point forecast is about as brutal as you can get in Indiana, especially with ZERO snow in the forecast. Worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So I just noticed that csnavy moved to the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So I just noticed that csnavy moved to the Mid Atlantic. Yep, happened several months back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 This would be annoying after the long/deep cold stretch. A less northern stream dominant outcome would probably be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Posted this in the December 2017 thread, but semi appropriate here too... 33 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: 7.8” of snow in December at CMH, which is only -1.5” for all of 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This would be annoying after the long/deep cold stretch. A less northern stream dominant outcome would probably be better. Eh, I'll be ready to cry Uncle after two weeks of bone chilling cold with only a very few inches of snow to accompany it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This would be annoying after the long/deep cold stretch. A less northern stream dominant outcome would probably be better. I'd be devastated if that happened. Even more if go back into the ice box after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Eh, I'll be ready to cry Uncle after two weeks of bone chilling cold with only a very few inches of snow to accompany it. My point is that we're waiting for a pattern shake up and it results in that? Sure, maybe things would get better afterward but that's really getting out in time. I'm not going to get too concerned yet, but subjectively it does seem like long range mild/cutter type systems often have a way of panning out when you don't necessarily want them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: My point is that we're waiting for a pattern shake up and it results in that? Sure, maybe things would get better afterward but that's really getting out in time. I'm not going to get too concerned yet, but subjectively it does seem like long range mild/cutter type systems often have a way of panning out when you don't necessarily want them lol One thing to keep in mind is the continuos wave-break across the Pacific which not only influences a continuing -EPO/+PNA pattern, but model variability as well. We will see alot of different solutions (suppressed, great lakes cutter, or apps runner) over the next few days, so I wouldn't be too sold out on one run or two. The pattern can support a storm, however, the preceding low will have an impact on the polar jet strength (northern stream dominance) and confluence from the SE Ridge to allow for phasing. I remain skeptical, but I do think January will offer more opportunities than December did for the entire sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 At this point, We might as well torch if we don't get any strong winter systems the below zero temps are starting to get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 omg look at that thing. Just keep it off the coast. We don't need to go beating the 1978 superbomb pressure on US land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: omg look at that thing. Just keep it off the coast. We don't need to go beating the 1978 superbomb pressure on US land. Another couple hundred miles west with that would probably crash the site lol. EDIT: Oceanstwx sure has quite a bit of excitement out there on the coast of Maine. Other than some severe during the warm season I'm guessing he doesn't miss this area at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Unless the weekend system has a trick up its sleeve, we may lose at least the first 10 days of January as far as having any interesting/winter storm warning type systems (outside of the lake belts). Boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Unless the weekend system has a trick up its sleeve, we may lose at least the first 10 days of January as far as having any interesting/winter storm warning type systems (outside of the lake belts). Boo Sure seems like we've been saying outside the lake belts a lot this season lol. I'm encouraged to see the Euro continues to advertise something later in the weekend. Looks like it's a system that actually has the potential to tap into the GOM for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sure seems like we've been saying outside the lake belts a lot this season lol. I'm encouraged to see the Euro continues to advertise something later in the weekend. Looks like it's a system that actually has the potential to tap into the GOM for a change. Yeah, that was a pretty nice run. Looks different from other models (especially GFS) with a lot of focus on the southern energy. So we "only" punt the first week of January if that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yeah, that was a pretty nice run. Looks different from other models (especially GFS) with a lot of focus on the southern energy.Need that to not be a one off run. Been so much run to run variability with the potential system that it's probably a bit early to say if there's any real trends yet. On the other hand, the Euro did step in direction of focusing on the southern energy with the 00z run. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here is what radar looked like exactly 19 years ago. Does anyone remember this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here is what radar looked like exactly 19 years ago. Does anyone remember this storm? Looks like 1-2" on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like 1-2" on the way. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Might as well That would be sickening if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: That would be sickening if that happened. Maybe the next one can hit Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe the next one can hit Orlando. 18" of snow might even exceed The Mouse's contingency plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 lol DVN's CWA on this map. Although they had like 50 tors this season? The plains states(with the exception of 6-12) are just empty... Hopefully 2018 is better for those outside dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 ORD currently has 5.4" of snow so far this season. I took a look at years with less than 6" through the end of December (some may recall I did something similar last month but with a different snow threshold) and rolled forward, and it usually means the season is heading toward a subpar snow total, but not always. Not including this year, there have been 45 years that had less than 6" at the open of January. That translates to about a 1 in 3 year occurrence. 33 of the 45 went on to finish with below average snow, while 12 finished above. The group that ended up snowier than average generally ended up in the 38-45" range, so not overwhelmingly snowier than average (30 year average at ORD is just over 36"). 2 of the 12 did recover to finish a hair over 50" -- 1998-99 and 2014-15 -- but it took 2 historic type snowstorms to do so in those 2 winters. Bottom line, it's not a good sign that ORD is currently where they are in terms of snowfall. However, it is too soon to rule out the possibility of enough of a recovery to finish snowier than average, even if it is less likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 3:44 PM, snowlover2 said: That would be sickening if that happened. Seriously, for the Savannah to Augusta corridor to get four times the amount of snow in one system that Milwaukee has seen all winter would make any snow lover here extremely salty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 37 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: Seriously, for the Savannah to Augusta corridor to get four times the amount of snow in one system that Milwaukee has seen all winter would make any snow lover here extremely salty. Just was reading some of the AFD’s in southern GA and Northern FL - wow. Half an inch of ice and 2-4” of snow. That’s truly unheard of. Then just to the Northeast in SE GA and srn s. Carolina - snow totals of 8”+ are possible. Seems like I remember a Winter Storm Watch being issued every couple of weeks up until recent years. Since then, next to nothing. We had one Winter Storm Watch last year - then to an advisory - ended up with mainly rain. This year I’m wondering if we’ll even get a synoptic snowfall that exceeds two inches. I feel for the rest of the sub, atleast Lake Michigan has produced a few nickle and dime events that’s pushed my total around 5” imby. I’m thinking about throwing the towel and punting this winter. I would say maybe next year, but I’ve been saying that since 2013/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 2:50 PM, Hoosier said: Here is what radar looked like exactly 19 years ago. Does anyone remember this storm? Was that the storm that came north into an entrenched arctic airmass and gave essentially everyone in this sub a nice snowstorm? If so, also infamous for being forecasted with virtually no model wavering a week in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Just was reading some of the AFD’s in southern GA and Northern FL - wow. Half an inch of ice and 2-4” of snow. That’s truly unheard of. Then just to the Northeast in SE GA and srn s. Carolina - snow totals of 8”+ are possible. Seems like I remember a Winter Storm Watch being issued every couple of weeks up until recent years. Since then, next to nothing. We had one Winter Storm Watch last year - then to an advisory - ended up with mainly rain. This year I’m wondering if we’ll even get a synoptic snowfall that exceeds two inches. I feel for the rest of the sub, atleast Lake Michigan has produced a few nickle and dime events that’s pushed my total around 5” imby. I’m thinking about throwing the towel and punting this winter. I would say maybe next year, but I’ve been saying that since 2013/14. I am very confused by this entire post. Last December 11th you had to have a Warning. And as for this year....you got almost 3 feet of snow in December per Battle Creek numbers, plenty of which was synoptic snow. Where in the world are you getting 5 inches? Snowfall totals ranged from 35.3" at Battle Creek, to 30.9" at Ann Arbor, and 22.5" at Detroit. How did you, right in that west to east line, get only 5"???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.