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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location

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Does anyone know if the Arecibo observatory has ever been tested against Cat 5 winds?  Is it somehow built to widthstand the lashing?  Been there three times so am familiar with the installation, but somehow still think the radio telescope would be utterly destroyed 

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least that much...Irma essentially scraped PR to the N.

it was more than s scrape the eyewall was 50 miles at least to the north of the island...

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7 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

No much wiggle room for St. Croix.  I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar.

2017-09-19_201001.jpg

Frederiksted on the west end of the island may be ground zero

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location

Thanks, thought it was relatively close. As far as the infrastructure in PR, it's about to get destroyed. They have already said expect to have no power for months and no drinking water for weeks. The islands electric provider filed for bankruptcy in July. Most commutation towers were built 20 plus yrs ago to withstand 135mph. 

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What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?

It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter.
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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?
 

It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter.

Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?

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Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?



Unless you count Naples.

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3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it.

 

Thanks

Dropsonde a couple pages back is probably the most compelling evidence. Like 5 people posted it. Also were 152kt and 151kt unflagged SFMR on the 910mb pass.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point.

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

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1 minute ago, Coopdog said:

Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?

Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM

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PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

About 3300 where it will potentially be traversing.

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3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

The hindrance would only be helpful to those places impacted after Puerto Rico.  Cuba still got 160 mph winds from Irma.  Also, higher elevations will likely see higher winds (and rainfall.)  

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2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM

Thanks, but all the catastrophic LF were at night? Rockport, St Maarten, Tortola, Barbuda, and Dominica? 

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4 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

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2 minutes ago, thewxmann said:

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

It will disrupt it, but the point is, the disruption will only help those places in the path of Maria after PR.

 

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32 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. 

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here

 

I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

 

 

59c1b8ed72d1c_ScreenShot2017-09-19at7_39_39PM.thumb.png.8fa98a58190572cd61f0e5f0821a4730.png

 

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