Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Latest Sat. reminds me of peak Irma. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotair Posted September 20, 2017 Does anyone know if the Arecibo observatory has ever been tested against Cat 5 winds? Is it somehow built to widthstand the lashing? Been there three times so am familiar with the installation, but somehow still think the radio telescope would be utterly destroyed Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SN_Lover Posted September 20, 2017 The after images will be horrifying Metro pop over 2M+ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? Yes, landfall should be around 12z. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MikeB_01 Posted September 20, 2017 Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it. Thanks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least that much...Irma essentially scraped PR to the N. it was more than s scrape the eyewall was 50 miles at least to the north of the island... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
peribonca Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, bobbutts said: No much wiggle room for St. Croix. I'm getting about 306 degree movement from radar. Frederiksted on the west end of the island may be ground zero Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location Thanks, thought it was relatively close. As far as the infrastructure in PR, it's about to get destroyed. They have already said expect to have no power for months and no drinking water for weeks. The islands electric provider filed for bankruptcy in July. Most commutation towers were built 20 plus yrs ago to withstand 135mph. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Yes, landfall should be around 0z. Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Wow. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: it was more than s scrape the eyewall was 50 miles at least to the north of the island... Fair enough. I guess I was speaking in relative terms. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: meant 12z. fixed it. 0z is now. lol Figured- Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF? It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter. Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thess Posted September 20, 2017 Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?Unless you count Naples. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dunkman Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it. Thanks Dropsonde a couple pages back is probably the most compelling evidence. Like 5 people posted it. Also were 152kt and 151kt unflagged SFMR on the 910mb pass. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point. PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Coopdog said: Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night? Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Still in beast mode Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?About 3300 where it will potentially be traversing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? The hindrance would only be helpful to those places impacted after Puerto Rico. Cuba still got 160 mph winds from Irma. Also, higher elevations will likely see higher winds (and rainfall.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coopdog Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM Thanks, but all the catastrophic LF were at night? Rockport, St Maarten, Tortola, Barbuda, and Dominica? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thewxmann Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba? The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 20, 2017 My god, that eyewall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, thewxmann said: The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile. It will disrupt it, but the point is, the disruption will only help those places in the path of Maria after PR. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2017 Just insane. This is a temp you'd usually see in much larger eyes 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxmx Posted September 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
