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Tyler Penland

2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Whats your facebook page name? Even though I am not living in the area at the moment I will share it with friends and family. You are a great forecaster

Here ya go. Ward does great FB live events. 

https://www.facebook.com/Ashevillewx/

 

Also, sitting down the mountain in the foothills my interest in this event has gone up during today's models runs. 

 

 

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The general idea from some models, that the moisture will just vanish as it approaches the mountains, doesn't seem logical to me. I feel like to some degree, geographical lift would have to prevent this. 

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6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The general idea from some models, that the moisture will just vanish as it approaches the mountains, doesn't seem logical to me. I feel like to some degree, geographical lift would have to prevent this. 

 

You see orographic lift do this to warmer systems a lot. A line of thunderstorms or rain shield vanishes as it hits the mountains. Not sure if it's the same case in winter because of it being a key component for flow snow. Maybe Conductor Met (Congrats!) or others can enlighten us.

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Most systems I have some some sort of "gut feel", right or wrong. Not this one. I can see anything from a total bust to a result that way over performs forcasts. I'll just wait and enjoy and learn off of this one, whatever happens.

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3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

Higher than expected snowfall in western Tenn. has caused the local NWS to upgrade from a WWA to a WSW. Think that means anything for our area?

Hopefully the trend continues, but over performance is surely a good sign. 

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The models look a bit better tonight, well the GFS does... I think this will be a look at the radar and see what is coming at us and how do things develop. Can the RGEM be trusted?  I Am not sure, so this will be an hour by hour watching tomorrow.

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Just saw a tweet that shows a storm report in Kentucky where the location is now approaching a foot. Heavy bands setting up and training over the same areas. Apparently the same area was only forecasted to receive 1-3. What a miss!

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Still have very low confidence of the eastern side of the Apps being able to receive meaningful snow. The only way I see the eastern sides getting their fair share is with the rapid redevelopment that the HRRR is showing.

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The short range guidance isnt looking all that bad for SWNC, AVL area and extending foothills. The HRRR, RAP, and RGEM are all showing at least a few inches for most areas.. GFS and NAM are different story obviously..

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You can tell how weak the line is on radar. It is breaking up already. I think this thing will be maybe flurries and a few snow showers before drying up. At least before the upslope snow begins. 

I was thinking the same thing; expect destruction of the line when it hits the mountains.  I hope it can get back together and do something for central NC.

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3 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I was thinking the same thing; expect destruction of the line when it hits the mountains.  I hope it can get back together and do something for central NC.

Yeah I agree. We never do well in these situations. 

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The short range models certainly look nice for all of WNC basically but hard to put much faith in them considering what the other guidance looks like. Euro is especially discouraging and worse than last nights run 

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Someone is going to get leeside enhancement I believe and a meso low is going to develop in NEGA/upstate SC. The question is where does the heaviest band of snow setup? Right over mtns/foothills or does it redevelop east..

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The 12:40 snow map from GSP shows accumulation of .2 inches. Needless to say, they are not buying any short range models unless that changes with their afternoon update.

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