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Tyler Penland

2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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37 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Oh also I got the job up north with the railroad. I will be here until sometime next month so i'm excited for any opportunity we get from here on out. This winter has already been much much better than last year. 

Congrats met im very happy for you. Ever since i was a kid i wanted to work on the railroad. Trains and snow were the theme of my childhood lol But i want to thank you for all that you do for the mountain fourm. Ive been a daily reader/lurker since 2010. I post occasionally but ive learned so much from you and others. God bless you on your new endeavor.

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1 minute ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Congrats met im very happy for you. Ever since i was a kid i wanted to work on the railroad. Trains and snow were the theme of my childhood lol But i want to thank you for all that you do for the mountain fourm. Ive been a daily reader/lurker since 2010. I post occasionally but ive learned so much from you and others. God bless you on your new endeavor.

Thank you very much! I will be a train Conductor so that is pretty cool. I will be in and out around here. This will always be my home. So with making much more money than I currently do I will be looking to build another home deeper into the mountains but I will stay in Haywood. 

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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Thank you very much! I will be a train Conductor so that is pretty cool. I will be in and out around here. This will always be my home. So with making much more money than I currently do I will be looking to build another home deeper into the mountains but I will stay in Haywood. 

Yeah you cant beat the pay i put in for csx when i graduated high school. Starting pay was 50k with good benifits. I have a two year old so i want to be here with him or id do it ina heartbeat. And i dont blame you me and the wife are looking for land to put a modular im orginaly from hot springs and my wife is from newland we miss the mtns the summers are brutal in marion anymore. 

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5 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Yeah you cant beat the pay i put in for csx when i graduated high school. Starting pay was 50k with good benifits. I have a two year old so i want to be here with him or id do it ina heartbeat. And i dont blame you me and the wife are looking for land to put a modular im orginaly from hot springs and my wife is from newland we miss the mtns the summers are brutal in marion anymore. 

Yeah my starting pay is 35 an hour with great benefits. That is training pay. I have two little boys which I will have to be away from for several months but that is short term. The long term will be a great pension, savings for the kids, college money, money to help family ect, ect. 

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37 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah my starting pay is 35 an hour with great benefits. That is training pay. I have two little boys which I will have to be away from for several months but that is short term. The long term will be a great pension, savings for the kids, college money, money to help family ect, ect. 

Congrats Met! You are one of the best, most knowledgeable posters on here. Good luck in your future endeavors and may your days be filled with snow

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36 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah my starting pay is 35 an hour with great benefits. That is training pay. I have two little boys which I will have to be away from for several months but that is short term. The long term will be a great pension, savings for the kids, college money, money to help family ect, ect. 

I heard that brother its hard up in these hills lol Whats your thoughts on our little storm for tomorrow night im straddling the fence on one hand downsloping may kill me or it could help me with a lee trough. Idk yet 

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5 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I heard that brother its hard up in these hills lol Whats your thoughts on our little storm for tomorrow night im straddling the fence on one hand downsloping may kill me or it could help me with a lee trough. Idk yet 

 

I have seen this setup quite a few times in McDowell, I think downsloping will hurt pretty bad on eastern facing slopes down to Morganton and hickory where they will get an inch or 2. I would go dusting to 1/2 for most of McDowell

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6 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

I heard that brother its hard up in these hills lol Whats your thoughts on our little storm for tomorrow night im straddling the fence on one hand downsloping may kill me or it could help me with a lee trough. Idk yet 

On that side of the mountain I think it all depends on how quickly the moisture develops back to the west... This will be a wait and see game for all. I think we still need about 12 more hours to really figure out the two bands. 

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Yeah guys thats what worries me the only hope i have is im in the eastern part of the county maybe i can sqeeze out a half inch as the band redevolps off the lee. But who know with all the lee side through talk i might get a suprise like 03 but that obe had a bonified meso low in NW SC. Its not the exact same set up either. That storm actually had a low form in gom and rode up the coast.

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Oh also I got the job up north with the railroad. I will be here until sometime next month so i'm excited for any opportunity we get from here on out. This winter has already been much much better than last year. 


Congrats man, you deserve it!

This one could provide more surprises for WNC. I need to see a few more runs on the NAM to be sold on precip drying up as it enters the mountains. RGEM would drop a couple of inches for most of us. Had .2” of precip and with temps in the mid to low 20’s, rate will be high (my guess is 1/15). That would equate to around 3” of snow. Not saying that will happen, but when these short range models begin to move like that, note has to be taken. This isn’t the same setup as early Dec, but remember it was at about this time that the NAM really started increasing precip over WNC. I am very interested in the next few runs of the NAM. Lots of details still to be ironed out for sure.
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16 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


Congrats man, you deserve it!

This one could provide more surprises for WNC. I need to see a few more runs on the NAM to be sold on precip drying up as it enters the mountains. RGEM would drop a couple of inches for most of us. Had .2” of precip and with temps in the mid to low 20’s, rate will be high (my guess is 1/15). That would equate to around 3” of snow. Not saying that will happen, but when these short range models begin to move like that, note has to be taken. This isn’t the same setup as early Dec, but remember it was at about this time that the NAM really started increasing precip over WNC. I am very interested in the next few runs of the NAM. Lots of details still to be ironed out for sure.

 

Thanks for the input Ward!!! I and im sure i speak for all of us want to thank you for all that you do. Your the voice of reason in wnc. And pm sometime i love to chase. Im a very knowledgeable person as far as western north carolina micro climates ect. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Thank you very much! I will be a train Conductor so that is pretty cool. I will be in and out around here. This will always be my home. So with making much more money than I currently do I will be looking to build another home deeper into the mountains but I will stay in Haywood. 

Congrats Met!  Cool job is right and awesome way to see the country from a different perspective.  I know you love Haywood County but seeing you excited about cold and snow in April when I am past ready for shorts and a t-shirt made me think you would also very much enjoy being further north.  Glad you have this opportunity for both you and your family.  Enjoy experiencing a different part of the country with MORE SNOW and an interesting new job!

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Thanks for the input Ward!!! I and im sure i speak for all of us want to thank you for all that you do. Your the voice of reason in wnc. And pm sometime i love to chase. Im a very knowledgeable person as far as western north carolina micro climates ect. 



Thanks man! We will have to plan a chase, that would be fun!

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3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Oh also I got the job up north with the railroad. I will be here until sometime next month so i'm excited for any opportunity we get from here on out. This winter has already been much much better than last year. 

Met do you currently work for Norfolk Southern, I worked for Southern then Norfolk Southern bought Southern out, I was there from 1973 to 1987 then went with the Post Office due to being laid off every winter.  I missed the railroad from the moment I left it. I was a brakeman/conductor and was getting ready to go to Engineer school in Atlanta when I took the buy out from the RR.  Made many of trips up and down Old Fort Mtn. to Saulisbury and Charlotte and Sauluda Mtn. to Greenville.

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17 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Met do you currently work for Norfolk Southern, I worked for Southern then Norfolk Southern bought Southern out, I was there from 1973 to 1987 then went with the Post Office due to being laid off every winter.  I missed the railroad from the moment I left it. I was a brakeman/conductor and was getting ready to go to Engineer school in Atlanta when I took the buy out from the RR.  Made many of trips up and down Old Fort Mtn. to Saulisbury and Charlotte and Sauluda Mtn. to Greenville.

I'm not with any railroad currently. I am headed up North to work for CN rail road though. 

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The 18z NAM does not look great for us. It looks like the main band will be east of us. We may get a brief inch but that's about it according to the NAM. Maybe a brief upslope event after that...


18z NAM 3km doesn’t look as bad. Tries to get the meso low going over SC. Attempts to push more moisture back into WNC. Moved toward the RGEM imo.
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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm not with any railroad currently. I am headed up North to work for CN rail road though. 

You are very fortunate to get a conductor  job with the railroad with no experience.. My father worked almost 40 yrs with Norfolk Southern and my brother in-law is the Chief Operating Officer of Genesee Wyoming Railway

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11 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


18z NAM 3km doesn’t look as bad. Tries to get the meso low going over SC. Attempts to push more moisture back into WNC. Moved toward the RGEM imo.

 

Systems like this one are almost always dry as a bone for Buncombe. This is one instance where I will buy any modeled snow hole. We usually scrape out a few flurries... maybe... and I mean maybe to a dusting. Can you think of an instance where this has worked for Buncombe? I can still see the foothills with a shot of something. I could be wrong, but I have already written this one off.

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8 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

You are very fortunate to get a conductor  job with the railroad with no experience.. My father worked almost 40 yrs with Norfolk Southern and my brother in-law is the Chief Operating Officer of Genesee Wyoming Railway

Yeah I feel very fortunate. I am going to go through 2 months of classroom training then another 3 to 4 months OTJ training. 

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1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

Systems like this one are almost always dry as a bone for Buncombe. This is one instance where I will buy any modeled snow hole. We usually scrape out a few flurries... maybe... and I mean maybe to a dusting. Can you think of an instance where this has worked for Buncombe? I can still see the foothills with a shot of something. I could be wrong, but I have already written this one off.

Unless other model guidance show the neutral/negative tilt that the RGEM showed, this really isn't worth watching. It'll be the equivalent if a weak clipper. But...but if it starts leaning towards the RGEM, it's game on.

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Unless other model guidance show the neutral/negative tilt that the RGEM showed, this really isn't worth watching. It'll be the equivalent if a weak clipper. But...but if it starts leaning towards the RGEM, it's game on.

Yeah, the RGEM paints a different picture. HVWARD has forgotten more than I know, so whatever conclusion he comes to is what I will bank on. These clippers have always seemed to hate Buncombe though.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I feel very fortunate. I am going to go through 2 months of classroom training then another 3 to 4 months OTJ training. 

Congrats on your new job. Have fun up in the frozen tundra.

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Yeah, the RGEM paints a different picture. HVWARD has forgotten more than I know, so whatever conclusion he comes to is what I will bank on. These clippers have always seemed to hate Buncombe though.


I hate forecasting these and could very well be wrong, but I don’t view this as a clipper system. It has the chance to tap the Gulf and form a meso low. Depending on if the low forms and how close to WNC it forms will play havoc with the models. If it cuts off at 5h, then a really strong storm is going to move over WNC. Last time I remember a cutoff 5h low moving over WNC from that direction was the Halloween storm of 2015. We all did pretty well there, but this is an entirely different setup. I know that I will learn a great deal over the next few days and for that, I am very excited.
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19 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


I hate forecasting these and could very well be wrong, but I don’t view this as a clipper system. It has the chance to tap the Gulf and form a meso low. Depending on if the low forms and how close to WNC it forms will play havoc with the models. If it cuts off at 5h, then a really strong storm is going to move over WNC. Last time I remember a cutoff 5h low moving over WNC from that direction was the Halloween storm of 2015. We all did pretty well there, but this is an entirely different setup. I know that I will learn a great deal over the next few days and for that, I am very excited.

 

You have been a forecasting roll here lately !   If you think there is potential, I am excited.  I definitely remember the Halloween Storm. That one totally snuck up on us. (or, me at least)  I am on your side, right or wrong. I appreciate any knowledgeable contribution( and even the ones that aren't since I fall in that category)  I will look forward to your thoughts. ( and no pressure here, I have never see anyone in this sub forum give anybody a hard time)  I saw your forecast on FB. I like it.  :)

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You have been a forecasting roll here lately !   If you think there is potential, I am excited.  I definitely remember the Halloween Storm. That one totally snuck up on us. (or, me at least)  I am on your side, right or wrong. I appreciate any knowledgeable contribution( and even the ones that aren't since I fall in that category)  I will look forward to your thoughts. ( and no pressure here, I have never see anyone in this sub forum give anybody a hard time)  I saw your forecast on FB. I like it. 


Thanks bud, I really appreciate your kind words. Here’s to hoping we all get a nice surprise from this one
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57 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


Thanks bud, I really appreciate your kind words. Here’s to hoping we all get a nice surprise from this one emoji482.png

 

Whats your facebook page name? Even though I am not living in the area at the moment I will share it with friends and family. You are a great forecaster

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