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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

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2 hours ago, WxBlue said:

 

 

Agree on $1000-1200 per person in group of 3-4. Try to have emergency funds just in case something happens.

I went this past May and saw four tornadoes in Oklahoma and Texas. I didn't think chaser convergence was that awful when we're out there on days with a PDS moderate risk day and a high risk in Oklahoma, but we also respected our storms and stayed a little further than most people. Heard it was bad closer to tornadoes we saw, however.

Don't be afraid to chase days with 2-5% tornado risk. Some of more underrated chases happen on those days and you can see amazing structure on some of these storms. It was a lot less stressful chasing LP supercells in New Mexico on 5/22, knowing that we're likely to not see a tornado, than chasing messy storms during 5/18 high risk and lucking into Seiling/Waynoka tornado on a fluke route we took to get there. We also found ourselves in middle of a cell merger with a tornado warning. I wouldn't recommend doing that... at all...

 

I would definitely prefer seeing the tornado from afar but not afraid to get pounded by hail and be right in it.  I would chase 5% TOR days!  I’ve even thought about IA as a place to go 

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Meant to put this pic in this thread.  Storm south of Long Island, about 170 miles from this spot, around 7:10am this morning.

 

 

tstorm.jpg

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55 minutes ago, Dan said:

Meant to put this pic in this thread.  Storm south of Long Island, about 170 miles from this spot, around 7:10am this morning.

 

 

tstorm.jpg

are they ever going to finish that rotary project?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So magically at day 11 it’s cold?

How does a day 10 snapshot judge an 11-15 day mean...and on top of that..prove torch until further notice?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How does a day 10 snapshot judge an 11-15 day mean...and on top of that..prove torch until further notice?

What? It’s AN averaged out straight thru day 10. In fact, it looks like that period is +5 at least 

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On ‎10‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 4:45 PM, powderfreak said:

I thought Rangley was at like 1,500ft to begin with? 

They really get downsloped that much there? 

Obs site is something like 1530'.  However, there are mts 3000-4000+ within 10 miles in all directions except due west, where Oquossoc Bald is only 2400.  I admit to having no data for places 2000+ in that area, so my downsloping comment was a guess based on topography.

I'm no severe weather expert, but I can tell you for a fact that a canopy won't do squat to protect your car from baseball-sized hail. not to mention the wind would blow it away in a second.

Totally agree, unless one has a garage in tow.  :P
In 1986 I was on a Long Lake cruise aboard the Songo River Queen about 2 months after golf-to-baseball hail had defoliated many acres in the Naples-Sebago area, and the canvas top above the upper deck had several hundred (temporary, I hope) duct tape patches on holes punched by the ice.

 

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Max of 56.5F so far. On a strong radiational cooling night I'm usually good for a 25F drop from the previous day's high. So that would put me close to flirting with my first 32F of the season tomorrow morning. The one caveat would be when the stronger return flow starts kicking in. That will put the kibash on my temp drop.

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? It’s AN averaged out straight thru day 10. In fact, it looks like that period is +5 at least 

I never said anything about it not being warm the next 10 days (expect mon-tue). However, a trough is certainly going to build in the central and eastern US somewhere in the next 2 weeks. All ensembles are showing it and the op GFS is even showing hints of it now. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I would definitely prefer seeing the tornado from afar but not afraid to get pounded by hail and be right in it.  I would chase 5% TOR days!  I’ve even thought about IA as a place to go 

I was surprised how much hail we took chasing McLean-Wheeler supercell on 5/16/17 even at a safe distance of about 4-5 miles from the tornado. Amazing view of it from higher ground so it was worth being close to the FFD.

Haha, even a 5% day in Iowa is worth it. Good mindset to have!

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11 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I was surprised how much hail we took chasing McLean-Wheeler supercell on 5/16/17 even at a safe distance of about 4-5 miles from the tornado. Amazing view of it from higher ground so it was worth being close to the FFD.

Haha, even a 5% day in Iowa is worth it. Good mindset to have!

I chase 2% days around here...even marginal svr risk days lol

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Max of 56.5F so far. On a strong radiational cooling night I'm usually good for a 25F drop from the previous day's high. So that would put me close to flirting with my first 32F of the season tomorrow morning. The one caveat would be when the stronger return flow starts kicking in. That will put the kibash on my temp drop.

I'm kind of thinking as those temps rise aloft that it just helps us decouple faster. Big drops at sunset tonight.

And actually based on satellite, the NE flow is pretty deep, well down into NJ. BML is 60/29.

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1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said:

As we always used to say in Illinois #neverIowa. Chased there many times and ended up seeing garbage almost every time. Haha.

IA can produce some beauties, but it's definitely in a more precarious position relative to surrounding chase locations. The EML can really put a lid on convection, and they don't benefit from a dry line to help force convergence. But they are also closer to the EML source region that places to the east, and so convection can sometimes pop in those places after forcing has passed IA.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Max of 56.5F so far. On a strong radiational cooling night I'm usually good for a 25F drop from the previous day's high. So that would put me close to flirting with my first 32F of the season tomorrow morning. The one caveat would be when the stronger return flow starts kicking in. That will put the kibash on my temp drop.

Gonna be some sweet inversions tomorrow morning.  

Around here it'll probably be MVL and the valley bottom at 700ft near freezing while it's in the 40s at 1500ft.

We hit 59F in the valley today off the first 20s of the year this morning and dews are mid-30s, so I would think we are good for another frost/freeze tonight.  

Tonight should be more widespread I'd think as last night it was mainly northern sections that cleared enough to freeze.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BML already dropped 9 degrees in the last hour (60 to 51). IZG 10 degrees (58 to 48).

 

Same up here... lost 10F from 5-6pm to drop into the upper 40s.

As soon as the sun dips behind Mansfield it's certainly a free fall.

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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be 42 here for the low

44F here already at 7pm.  Heading out to grab some sushi takeout with jacket and hat on, lol.  

This feels like seasons in seasons.  

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Talk about rapidly losing heat to the clear skies, BML went from 60F to 42F in two hours.  That's like borderline shorts to winter jacket in 120 minutes.

And I thought doing 59F to 44F in that time frame was decent.  

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Dews jumped quite a bit (into the low 40s in some places), but I'm guessing that's awfully shallow moisture. MWN -4 dew.

I still cant believe Dendrite was raining yesterday evening while MWN was -4F for a Td and 15% RH.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Talk about rapidly losing heat to the clear skies, BML went from 60F to 42F in two hours.  That's like borderline shorts to winter jacket in 120 minutes.

And I thought doing 59F to 44F in that time frame was decent.  

It's hard to keep up with. I actually updated the day shift grids to speed up the temp drop and still missed BML by 7 degrees this hour.

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