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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

As stated earlier by others, a large established storm with a large wind field will most likely have winds relatively "lighter" than you'd expect from a storm with such low pressures (low 900's) especially at the higher latitudes...this will inevitably have a rather large eye, (not a pinhole eye which can really tighten the windspeeds... ie increase max winds).

I'd wager that even if Irma gets to near 900mb north of the Bahamas...she may "only" have winds in the upper Cat 4 range...(140's)

All previous Atlantic hurricanes with pressures below 910mb have been cat 5. 

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Latest Vortex Data Message from recon

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 03/22:45:27Z
B. 17 deg 21 min N
  050 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2770 m
D. 82 kt
E. 315 deg 12 nm
F. 048 deg 99 kt
G. 318 deg 16 nm
H. 960 mb
I. 11 C / 3052 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C20
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 0111A IRMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 318 / 16 NM 22:41:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 317 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 16 KTS

 

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44 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's not eastern NC if we're talking potential coastal landfall locations.

Yes you're correct, ended up a bit West of where I projected.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, operational 18z GFS is east of almost all ensemble members.

Yes.  Here is the mean.  The pressure is much lower than previous runs indicating to me a tighter cluster of ensemble members.  The mean basically rides the FL coastline comes ashore in GA and up through the mountains of NC.sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

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2 hours ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Hurricane magnet? You realize high odds means something is unlikley to happen right?

Yeah you're correct... had to google it. I need to take my statistician hat off and put on a horse racing one.

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14 minutes ago, wxmx said:

All previous Atlantic hurricanes with pressures below 910mb have been cat 5. 

 

14 minutes ago, wxmx said:

All previous Atlantic hurricanes with pressures below 910mb have been cat 5. 

Nice stat.  I think Irma will have some special characteristics wrt pressure/wind relationship.  (If current modeling of "long duration" low pressures through the Bahamas occur)

All models show Irma gaining significant size, thus creating a larger, lower pressure environment, wrt the core....thus with pressures substantially lower than that a normal hurricane (say 100-200 miles from the center) the pressure change over distance from there to the core may not be quite as tight as you'd get with a cane in a higher pressure environment, or a cane that has explosively developed (ie Wilma), thus the wind speeds may be a tad lower than the traditional/normal pressure/wind relationship.

 

Edit:  And I'm talking about Irma when she is north of the Bahamas.....as she approaches them and enters them, I think CAT 5 winds are certainly possible (again, assuming the model outputs of low 900's verify)

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37 minutes ago, RU4Real said:

Once she gets into central Virginia it looks like the pressure kicks up pretty quickly (showing 979 at 222 hours) and the 10m winds are basically a strong breeze. Still some tropical storm force indicated over the Chesapeake, but the winds inland are all under 35 kts. This run has a really weird look to it.

I only looked at it in the car in my phone, but it looks like stalls in VA and dissipates. PA's total qpf is only about 1-3 inches

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47 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

There's a pretty significant shift south at 120. This brings the GFS into even better consensus with the ECMWF and UKMET. It does appear that there is a slight turn left like what the UKMET shows after 120 and then a turn to the north before 168. There would definitely be a lot of lingering time in the Bahamas if model depiction becomes reality. You can also see Irma starting to interact with the trough by hour 144 and by hour 168 the cyclone is clearly tucked into the RER of an anticyclonically curved ULL jet streak so it should have a lot ULL divergence and a good outflow channel to support a deep cyclone. So far there is nothing I see with this 18Z run to make me think forecast confidence isn't above average at D5 lead times.

q7Xji60.png

I'm new to reading these sorts of maps, but is the gist of what you're saying that at the upper levels of the atmosphere that air is flowing away from the center of low pressure, basically allowing for deepening low pressure? The opposite would be if air were crashing into the area of low pressure at that level preventing further strengthening...?

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Holy HWRF, down to 871mbar hr 117! And the size is enormous.

It's one thing to say the GFS gets overdone, but when the hurricane models go that crazy too... 

When has a hurricane gone below 900mb around the Bahamas? 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's one thing to say the GFS gets overdone, but when the hurricane models go that crazy too... 

When has a hurricane gone below 900mb around the Bahamas? 

Doesn't the HMON run off the GFS? I could be wrong though...

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1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

They're in there a bit tight, but is that 155 on the northeast end? Yeowch...

Look to the upper right of the image...it tells you lowest pressure and max wind in kts.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

HMON refuses to be outdone... take 858 at 120

I know, both show cat 5 winds too with humongous wind fields. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Um no... try 185-190 mph

Yeah I see that, my resolution isn't as good as what you're using.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

HMON refuses to be outdone... take 858 at 120

Wouldn't that be the lowest pressure ever recorded for any storm anywhere on the globe?

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