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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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12z GEFS members in good agreement now with the OP

59b02aa613004.png

 

Still a camp of slower members that hit Florida further West, but I think me might be getting close to a consensus. 

59b02acabcfd2.png

59b02b053d068.png

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GEFS members in good agreement now with the OP

59b02aa613004.png

 

Still a camp of slower members that hit Florida further West, but I think me might be getting close to a consensus. 

59b02acabcfd2.png

59b02b053d068.png

Confidence seems to be increasing, but the track we're becoming more confident in has a huge range of impacts still.

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33 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Maybe older ones, but that is 28 years ago, a generation ago.

I'm 36 now...I remember it vividly! Surfside/Garden City looked like Hiroshima. The forest where the eye hit was nothing but 25-30' tall sticks. 

 

 It's what took my interest in extreme weather from being intrigued  to becoming a full blown fanatic! heh 

 

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28 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

I own a home in Sea Pines on Hilton Head. Like Charleston, I can attest that we got pummeled by Matthew, and everyone is very worried right now, as this is looking like Matthew's nasty big sister. Our only saving grace may be that Matthew took down a lot of the more vulnerable trees. Took down two old loblolly pines in my front yard, the live oaks fared much better island wide. 

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4 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

So my only real UK access are the meteo maps and they 1) aren't great and 2) aren't even out yet for the eastern caribbean. How is the UK doing short term? Like, is it north of PR and the DR then kinda curves back into Cuba a bit or is it south the whole way? Just wondering if there's anything we can infer from the shorter term movement. Thanks!

Here's a better look at the 00z Ukie (12z will take a while still).

2.track.current.thumb.png.169daa6274d2d1d9a9939b206391b288.png

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 061657
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...100 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF IRMA PASSING OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A wind gust to 110 mph (177 km/h) has recently been reported at
Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Charlotte Amalie in
the U.S. Virgin Islands recently reported a wind gust to 82 mph
(131 km/hr)

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 64.5W
ABOUT  35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

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1 minute ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

Per NHC earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds would be Sunday during the day, I recommend you just keep up with NHC's website, they're the best in the business.  

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2 minutes ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

Around dinnertime/evening on Monday for actual landfall, a lot earlier than that for tropical storm winds

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18 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Note that station is located at 217 ft on an exposed ridgeline. 

station.jpg

 

The anemometer has since snapped off after the 113mph gust. Only getting wind direction now.

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5 minutes ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

145453_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34.png

You can find the official product here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?mltoa34#contents

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12Z GFS with WaveWatch III significant wave height in meters

18m - probably the biggest i have ever seen it forecast...

waves.PNG

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3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Raw T# back up to 7.1 

11LP.GIF

I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better.  Guessing it's probably a bit of both.

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San Juan is right on the edge of the core now, conditions should be deteriorating there rapidly. The airport is already gusting over 50MPH.

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4 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better.  Guessing it's probably a bit of both.

Oddly, the picture I posted is not updated. 


Does this show the updated version? I screens hotted it instead of copy pasting. 

Screen Shot 2017-09-06 at 12.45.14 PM.png

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Strong consensus so far today.

59b031e047fc5.png

59b032408b233.png

 

That's Miami, North Miami Beach, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale all the way up to Jupiter and Hobe Sound slam.  I could see a track similar to Jeanne or Frances circa 2004

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

San Juan is right on the edge of the core now, conditions should be deteriorating there rapidly. The airport is already gusting over 50MPH.

I still think they probably are too far south but may see some gusts into the low 60s in 3 hours or so 

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