Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Tortola is going to be badly whacked, USVI should barely escape the northern and NE eye wall. Virgin Gorda is one of the most beautiful places on earth-should take the brunt. Unless a more northern track is made, San Juan will experience the southern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 With the models seeming to trend more east with each run, what is the synoptic mechanism that can still recurve this out to sea? Is it another trough or deeper trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Crazieman said: Unless a more northern track is made, San Juan will experience the southern eyewall. It looks to me that they may barely escape the worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Saint Martin in the eye just before 7a EDT https://twitter.com/RCI_GP/status/905381154970329088 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Irma's core just showing up on San Juan's LR loop: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This is from Twitter from Maho Beach apparently; can anyone verify ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, irishbri74 said: This is from Twitter from Maho Beach apparently; can anyone verify ? It is real. Was watching this feed live earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Holy. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 152 kts FL, 152 kts SFMR in new recon pass in the NW eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: This is from Twitter from Maho Beach apparently; can anyone verify ? Real. Copyright war going on regarding the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 916mb extrapolated pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Here is video from the northern part of Anguilla 7 mins ago. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156502765899018&id=772909017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Microwave confirms that Irma's core has reorganized over the last few hours. Likely completed an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hurricane watches will probably go up soon for portions of FL with high EPS chances to experience hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon dropsonde finds that the pressure in the eye is up to 923mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear for NYC and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It looks like it may have resumed a more WNW track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morris said: Recon dropsonde finds that the pressure in the eye is up to 923mb. They missed the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear NYC and New England. Seems like NYC and NE are clear. No track is bringing the storm up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morris said: Recon dropsonde finds that the pressure in the eye is up to 923mb. Not too surprising...going over the islands was going to have some impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear NYC and New England. Strangely enough I've seen a few posts on twitter that systems won't ever come ashore into Florida from the south. They'll try very hard to either go west or go east. If they go east the tendency is then usually for them to miss or stay just offshore unless some sort of synoptic setup forces them in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, snow1 said: Seems like NYC and NE are clear. No track is bringing the storm up that way. And yesterday only the GFS wasn't showing a hit in Cuba. Now only the UKMET has it. Things can change very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They missed the eye. No. The satellite image doesn't update as quickly as the storm actually moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: Not too surprising...going over the islands was going to have some impact That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: No. The satellite image doesn't update as quickly as the storm actually moves. So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eye is fully visible on TJUA radar via GRLevel Or if you hit the long range loop right here. Can easily extrapolate movement at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center. Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough. I guess we'll see, I'm sure recon will make another pass. NHC went with 918mb at 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 13kt winds on the drop may allow for them to take off 1-2mb from the central pressure. It's close enough to the center. Also, there hasn't been a microwave pass since about 08z, so MIMIC has to work with that 4 hour old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. The extrapolated pressure was also up a few mb. It's quite possible. Take off one or two mb because the wind wasn't calm in the dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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