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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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31 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep I saw the 3 models laid side by side and remarkable consensus. Looking at those Bulging HPS on H5 maps Im in the camp this runs the Florida penisula longer verse OTS or getting back over water before a second landfall. If what we are seeing today is correct in regards to Bermuda HP and the one up over Ohio Valley on the euro op. Course it will change a hair or 2 guranteed next few days and we all know that can and will cause major changes to alot of folks sensible weather.

The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I am not either... Most tracks recently put us in a major bullseye for flooding rains and heavy winds. This is a beast and cannot be taken lightly, not even up here. 

Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. 

 

11L_tracks_18z.png

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How long is Irma over south Florida? It's very swampy down there and canes don't weaken as much crossing there as they do going on land in other areas. Andrew only weakened to 135mph crossing the entire peninsula. 

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Georgia -- State of Emergency

This emergency declaration includes Bryan, Camden, Chatham, Glynn, Liberty and McIntosh Counties.

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12Z Ensemble suites, both Euro and GFS, are back to 50/50 west and east Florida. We are back to square one. 

I suspect the late model tracks will shift west in line with the global models. Irma is hugging US Territories closer than forecast.

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They are all pretty close really, but 50 miles on either side of where it turns makes a huge difference for both south Florida and locations up the coast. The model tracks are clustered more narrow than the NHC cone at this point by the look of things.

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

They are all pretty close really, but 50 miles on either side of where it turns makes a huge difference for both south Florida and locations up the coast. The model tracks are clustered more narrow than the NHC cone at this point by the look of things.

Good point.  It also shows why the Hurricane Center doesn't make huge shifts in their track every 3 hours.  Slow adjustments and trust the cone.

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4 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Nam still convinced it turns early. 

namconus_mslp_uv850_seus_53.png

Watching these runs the last 4 days or so has been like watching a windshield wiper. Here in NC I guess we need to expect anything. Plan for the worst. Hope for the best. Can't shake the feeling it'll be like the NAM, turn early, and slam into NC. Wouldn't be the first time. I'm burnt. 

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3 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Nam still convinced it turns early. 

namconus_mslp_uv850_seus_53.png

Most don't put any weight in the NAM outside of 48 hours at the max.  Especially if it's way different than the other models.  It usually falls in line as time goes by.

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One difference in the path Irma takes in the Bahamas seems to be a little finger ridge the models have that cause that WNW motion in the Bahamas....this type of feature is really hard for the models to predict even a few days out.

Here is the 18Z last night that has the NC hit notice the 591 line is broken down and allowing a more north motion....

59b05192aefc8_18zhit.thumb.png.e85a7fa353f0d5f08ceafaa1ac72016d.png

Here is the latest GFS run showing the finger ridge stronger thus Irma goes more WSW...

59b0512a94e22_12zm.thumb.png.b2ed265b0868496d77a4cdfada130525.png

 

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HWRF and GFS comparison.. I know HWRF is short range just comparing locations.. FWIW HWRF is similar to the NAM once it approaches the Bahamas area 761106909653c0a8ee7c4cc32bef914c.jpg88682f695c156e3a688a621c38946470.jpg

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37 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. 

 

 

Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. 

 

11L_tracks_18z.png

The other thing with this will be the rains, obviously, but most of the Carolinas have had a relatively wet summer, so this , with the tropical rains, and winds in the areas as modeled today, could multiply all of the damages! 

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Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 912.5 911.3mb

Waiting on dropsonde data.

Recon took a tight circle around the eye.

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's going to miss Puerto Rico, the eye is not going to landfall there! Is that on track with the current projected path?

decent wobble to the NW last few frames the overall motion today has been just north of WNW....

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

decent wobble to the NW last few frames the overall motion today has been just north of WNW....

As I mentioned earlier going to be interesting to see if it's just a wobble or a trend.

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If it's not a wobble and is an actual trend to the north, that will affect the track down the line. It's close to getting to the point that 50 miles north now could be terrible for someone in 4 days. Still so long to go with this storm and honestly, the track will change probably 15 times between then and now. I go back to as recently as last year with some of.the models and professionals saying Matthew was going into Florida. 4 days later, my house say in the middle of 4 foot of water. 

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The NAM(yes I know, not the best) showed before any of them the Northward turn. It's running now and is north and slightly east of it's last run at 69

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It might miss the next plot the NHC has by 20 miles so its not that far off...but if this motion continued it would miss the next mark by a good bit...but they wobble around so its to soon to call this a change in direction...damn good wobble though.

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1 minute ago, senc30 said:

The NAM(yes I know, not the best) showed before any of them the Northward turn. It's running now and is north and slightly east of it's last run at 69

Your 100% correct. I like everyone else have the old sterotypes about the Nam, but it face slapped alot of folks on couple occasions last winter. Ive learn to pay attn to it for various reasons. Doesnt mean you write in stone what its saying but its not the dead hoarse it use to be.

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