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dmillz25

September 2017 Observation & Discussion Thread

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's still a threat, the 12z gfs was certainly a lot more ominous.

Cmc also

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The Euro has a chilly start to September with an early appearance of the first 0c 850's in Northern New England.

 

ecmwf_t850_neng_27.thumb.png.136585cf36b8f5b576d9b9cd6b556467.png

 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

^Translates to mid-50s in the city and maybe some outskirts flirt with the 40s.

Be interesting to see if these cooler solutions can hold as we get closer. NYC hasn't dropped to 55 or lower during the first week of September since 2000. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if these cooler solutions can hold as we get closer. NYC hasn't dropped to 55 or lower during the first week of September since 2000.

They'd get it done verbatim...

12zECM0826.png.f3dab0d153de1efcd75676014423a984.png

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35 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

They'd get it done verbatim...

\

I think the last time we had upper 40's during the first week of September at places like ISP and HPN was also 2000. That was the last upper 30's during the first week of September out at FOK.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if these cooler solutions can hold as we get closer. NYC hasn't dropped to 55 or lower during the first week of September since 2000. 

it used to be routine  to get near 50 by the first week of September...50 is the lowest min. for August...1965 and 1986 have the coolest end of August outbreaks in recent times...

8/25...

53 in 1963

8/28...

50 in 1885

52 in 1986

8/29...

50 in 1965

50 in 1982

50 in 1986

8/30...

50 in 1965

51 in 1986

8/31...

50 in 1976

51 in 1965

9/1...

51 in 1872

54 in 1967

9/2...

51 in 1886

53 in 1991

9/4...

47 in 1883

48 in 1872

9/5...

52 in 2000

9/6...

49 in 1963...max 56...lowest for so early in the season...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

it used to be routine  to get near 50 by the first week of September...50 is the lowest min. for August...1965 and 1986 have the coolest end of August outbreaks in recent times...

8/25...

53 in 1963

8/28...

50 in 1885

52 in 1986

8/29...

50 in 1965

50 in 1982

50 in 1986

8/30...

50 in 1965

51 in 1986

8/31...

50 in 1976

51 in 1965

9/1...

51 in 1872

54 in 1967

9/2...

51 in 1886

53 in 1991

9/4...

47 in 1883

48 in 1872

9/5...

52 in 2000

9/6...

49 in 1963...max 56...lowest for so early in the season...

Unc. I was in the opening class at Kingsborough Community College in 1964 and remember a cold September beginning. Did we dip into the forties during those first two weeks? Probably just my memory going.

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45 minutes ago, rclab said:

Unc. I was in the opening class at Kingsborough Community College in 1964 and remember a cold September beginning. Did we dip into the forties during those first two weeks? Probably just my memory going.

9/14/64 and 9/16/64 had a low of 48...the 48 on the 16th broke the record set in 1961...that record was broken again in 1966...

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50 minutes ago, rclab said:

Unc. I was in the opening class at Kingsborough Community College in 1964 and remember a cold September beginning. Did we dip into the forties during those first two weeks? Probably just my memory going.

9/1-10/1964:

9/1 85-65

9/2 80-58

9/3 85-60

9/4 92-63

9/5 89-66

9/6 82-59

9/7 82-58

9/8 84-63

9/9 92-63

9/10 87-66

9/11 92-63

9/12 71-58

9/13 60-53

9/14 75-48

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1964 was an interesting year weather wise...it had a January blizzard...a snowy winter...A cool April...warm May and parts of June...99 degrees on 6/30 and 7/1...very cool first three weeks of August...a very cool first three weeks of October...cold first three weeks of December...60 degree Christmas day...

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Models continuing with the idea of the strongest Northeast cold front to start September in years.

 

ecmwf_t850_neng_19.thumb.png.a323ee04cdee71cf7c31940ea8244dfe.png

 

 

 

 

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Models continuing with the idea of the strongest Northeast cold front to start September in years.

 

ecmwf_t850_neng_19.thumb.png.a323ee04cdee71cf7c31940ea8244dfe.png

 

 

 

 

If that is true, I'm not looking forward to it

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, ThisIsNotSparta said:

If that is true, I'm not looking forward to it

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
 

Friday into Saturday looks like a decent shot of CAA for the start of September.

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5 hours ago, TriPol said:

Wet Summers usually mean cold, wet Autumns... great for foliage viewing!

I wonder how that'll translate for those of us experiencing a very dry summer. 

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September decade averages...the 2010's September average temperature for NYC is the highest of any decade so far along with the highest ave monthly max......

Decade...ave temp...rainfall...ave max...ave min...

1870's......65.3......3.41"............................

1880's......66.2......4.18"......86.5......46.1

1890's......67.7......3.38"......89.6......47.0

1900's......68.1......3.84"......86.8......48.4

1910's......66.8......3.09"......89.5......45.6

1920's......67.8......3.54"......91.1......47.2

1930's......68.7......5.15"......90.0......47.9

1940's......68.8......3.70"......91.2......45.5

1950's......68.3......2.36"......89.9......45.6

1960's......67.7......3.85"......90.2......47.2

1970's......68.3......4.73"......90.1......47.1

1980's......68.6......3.58"......90.3......47.5

1990's......68.0......4.18"......88.7......47.6

2000's......68.6......4.91"......86.5......49.7

2010's......70.5......3.86"......92.7......52.4....2010-2016

1870-

2009........67.8......3.85"......89.2......47.1

1980-

2009........68.4......4.22"......88.5......48.3

Warmest..........Coolest..........Wettest............Driest...

74.5 in 2015...60.8 in 1871...16.85" in 1882...0.21" in 1884

73.6 in 1961...61.8 in 1887...11.96" in 1934...0.29" in 1914

73.3 in 1881...62.6 in 1883...11.51" in 2004...0.41" in 1885

73.3 in 2005...62.8 in 1888...10.30" in 1944...0.48" in 2005

72.3 in 1931...63.1 in 1963...10.09" in 1933...0.51" in 1941

72.3 in 1959...63.3 in 1893.....9.39" in 2011...0.60" in 1948

72.2 in 1891...63.3 in 1879.....9.32" in 1975...0.62" in 1895

72.1 in 1921...63.6 in 1917.....9.02" in 1938...0.70" in 1951

72.0 in 1930...63.7 in 1876.....8.82" in 1966...0.97" in 1881

71.8 in 1884...63.9 in 1918.....8.81" in 1999...1.10" in 1953

Hottest temp......Coolest temp...

102 9/02/1953....39 9/30/1912

101 9/07/1881....40 9/30/1888

..99 9/03/1929....40 9/25/1887

..99 9/11/1931....40 9/24/1963

..99 9/11/1983....40 9/21/1871

Warmest monthly minimum...

57 in 1910

56 in 1921

56 in 2015

54 in 2002

54 in 1982

54 in 1960

54 in 1891

54 in 2010

54 in 2016

Coldest monthly max...

79 in 1883

80 in 1888

80 in 2003

81 in 1908

81 in 1918

81 in 1975

Warmest daily minimum...

79 9/07/1881

79 9/02/1898

78 9/03/1898

78 9/04/1898

78 9/11/1983

78 9/02/2010

Coolest daily max...

52 9/30/1888

52 9/24/1887

53 9/19/1875

53 9/24/1950

53 9/25/1879

53 9/28/1984

53 9/29/1888

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NAM and Euro have the coolest start to September since at least 2009 with 50's into NYC.

NYC September 1st temps in the 50's:

9-1-09....57

9-1-02...59

9-1-92...59

9-1-91...57

9-1-86...58

9-1-85...58

9-1-76...59

9-1-75...55

9-1-70..57

9-1-67..54

 

f69.thumb.gif.d2066022101017ae893fb6608aee12f5.gif

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Especially the Euro.

Deep trough in the midweat with a ridge in the Atlantic.

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a few 90 chances ahead of the next midwestern trough next week on the euro

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

a few 90 chances ahead of the next midwestern trough next week on the euro

Makes sense with the hurricane in the vicinity.

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