Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looping canes are neh ... this is one reasons in many why they tend to underwhelm. but as you say, it's progged to move over the g-string -so Fascinating theory about the "g-string" slowing down and what implications this might have on noreasters and hurricanes (we're already seeing spikes in high precip events with more 3+ inch rainstorms and I had my first all snow 3+ inch qpf bomb in Jan 2016.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I know the GFS really over deepened Irma, forecasting crazy low pressures. Is it over-deepening (to a lesser degree) Jose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I know the GFS really over deepened Irma, forecasting crazy low pressures. Is it over-deepening (to a lesser degree) Jose? The current GFS tends to deepen TC's too much in general. Can't seriously expect it to be much more than a strong TS/min cane by the time it would get to SNE latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 RIP mega banyan tree at Key West's west martello gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 A bit of a west shift from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Jose needs to take advantage of the environment he is in now or he won't make it here as a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 And 96L looks like a system primed for a mega hurricane status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: And 96L looks like a system primed for a mega hurricane status Question is the track with that one. Looks destined to take a track south of Irma's which means a no go up here. There are two storms behind Jose, I wonder if one can turn up the coast and the other one ends up in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 hours ago, Paragon said: Will, do you think Jose will be the best chance we'll get this year or do you think the pattern going forward, with abundant blocking setting up, will offer something better in the long term? We def still have to watch...it seems there are still several chances in the pipeline. There have been some good ones late in the season too...obviously nobody will forget Sandy, but even Noel was a good one for the Cape and the Perfect Storm. Those were all way out in late Oct or early Nov and we'll have no idea what the pattern looks like then. But I'd def still watch in the near term after Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said: RIP mega banyan tree at Key West's west martello gardens. What?? Don't tell me. And WHY The hellz are people rooting for these???? Snowstorms are distractive enough, and it feels wrong to root for them as it is, and especially hurricanes reaching record levels in various ways out in the ocean. But to ROOT for hurricanes to come here, and do tree damage, is outroght Asinine. We should be wishing daily that Tornados and Hurricanes are thrown from the earth. NOT rooting for them in our backyard. The only reason I have any rooting interest at anytime is because it is the ONLY time people talk about climate change and fighting it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Seems to me that Esther (1961) is the best analog for Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: What?? Don't tell me. And WHY The hellz are people rooting for these???? Snowstorms are distractive enough, and it feels wrong to root for them as it is, and especially hurricanes reaching record levels in various ways out in the ocean. But to ROOT for hurricanes to come here, and do tree damage, is outroght Asinine. We should be wishing daily that Tornados and Hurricanes are thrown from the earth. NOT rooting for them in our backyard. The only reason I have any rooting interest at anytime is because it is the ONLY time people talk about climate change and fighting it . How old was that tree? A few centuries old I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We def still have to watch...it seems there are still several chances in the pipeline. There have been some good ones late in the season too...obviously nobody will forget Sandy, but even Noel was a good one for the Cape and the Perfect Storm. Those were all way out in late Oct or early Nov and we'll have no idea what the pattern looks like then. But I'd def still watch in the near term after Jose. It's interesting because the last few seasons we've been seeing the most activity in October. In the last few seasons the Saharan Air Layer put a cap on activity earlier in the season, but this season the cap broke early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Looks like a nice hit for SNE at 102 on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Yoda stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, eekuasepinniW said: Yoda stfu Sorry, no way Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Cape gets it pretty good 96-114 on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Still looks like it could be a nice soak and wind for eastern SNE. Entertaining as long as you're not hoping for something more than a high-end nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 GGEM is way west from 12z and over Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GGEM is way west from 12z and over Montauk. Basically this looks like the furthest west it could go is Montauk, I haven't seen any reliable guidance west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GGEM is way west from 12z and over Montauk. Its insanely fast compared to the GFS/NAM which is why it gets so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its insanely fast compared to the GFS/NAM which is why it gets so far west. I wonder if GFS's excessive intensification (960 mb?) is causing it to be tugged eastward. More intense storms usually recurve faster and sharper. So a less intense storm has more of a chance to stay close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Basically this looks like the furthest west it could go is Montauk, I haven't seen any reliable guidance west of there. There are a number of GEFS members west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its insanely fast compared to the GFS/NAM which is why it gets so far west. It sure is. Worth watching to see how the other 00z models shake out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: It sure is. Worth watching to see how the other 00z models shake out tonight. I think this won't even come close in the end and will be a major miss for anyone west of E LI. Its a different story for the Cape and Islands but I would not be surprised to see the Euro go further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: There are a number of GEFS members west of there That's the other weird thing- the 18z GEFS were west of the op but the 0z GFS did not trend to what the previous GEFS were showing. It went in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think this won't even come close in the end and will be a major miss for anyone west of E LI. Its a different story for the Cape and Islands but I would not be surprised to see the Euro go further east. Without any strong steering currents, what is causing the pull to the east, SG? And if it's going to move so slowly, and if Will doesn't want Eduoard to be used as an analog, the other one I'll bring out is Hermine from last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think this won't even come close in the end and will be a major miss for anyone west of E LI. Its a different story for the Cape and Islands but I would not be surprised to see the Euro go further east. That is my gut feeling too but until the western cluster on the GEFS is gone I'm watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 man are the islands going to get hit again? looks like 96l will develop pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Speed wise through 72 the UKMET looks dead middle between the GFS and Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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