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Convective Thread


weatherwiz

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Well that was not so bad.  Looked scary on radar but line came through.  No wind.  Few flashes here and there.   .65".   Got .13" earlier today.  Two day total 2".  I know areas north of Dendriteland got much more.   Now let's see what happens to the convection in S VT.  Think it will be more for areas south...

 

 

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Massive amounts of rain here today.  The paved road is partially washed out on either side of our driveway.  Our culvert has somehow survived so far.  The storms were not severe in terms of wind but the rain was very heavy at a number of points throughout the day.  it looks like there are a number of problems with the roads down in Norwich.  I had no idea how bad it was until i tried to drive to town to get a squeegee mop a little before 8.  That was when I saw what had hit my spot of the road.  Fortunately for me the storm that hit at that point gave the heaviest rain just to my east.  i turned around as I got to the edge of the village because some roads were closed, it looked like the bottom of my road could get washed out, and if I did not turn around I was not sure I would be able to get back home.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

GYX with a record 7 Tor warnings today

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

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4 hours ago, Arnold214 said:

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

Don't sell the FFW short either. That was also impressive with the terrain to boot. I'm on vacation on Winnipesaukee and noted the arc of showers (at the time) on the WF east of the original cluster of storms near LEB. Shear was quite visible just by looking at the various cigs visible by eye. I saw the HRRR sounding and nearly fell of my beach chair lol. Funny thing was that their wasn't a ton of LTG on the southern line despite the impressive DBZ. Seemed like it was reserved for the cells with the stronger updrafts.....but an extremely juiced atmosphere. Nice job by you and the others at Gray.  Hopefully you had a few cold ones to relax after shift. 

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8 hours ago, Arnold214 said:

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

I have to go to Maine to chase one day.  Severe weather magnet 

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to go to Maine to chase one day.  Severe weather magnet 

Just a hypothesis but ...

I think that Maine has a geographical benefit in two ways.

One, they are several hundred miles from the south coast of SNE.. Air masses moving NNE up the coastal plain ... more than less re-attain conditional instability the farther away it travels from having passed over cold bite waters/mixing S of LI.  That's what killed us yesterday imho (I mentioned I didn't like the S component). It's like we want a SW wind, then ..have it back locally more so than at synoptic scales - if it's the latter.  Screwed... But that screwing is less by the time we get to Maine (unless the wind SE).

Two, the spine of the white mountain cordillera runs NNE over NH and western Maine, and that provides a perfect backed lower tropospheric rotor ...kind of microcosm of what takes place over the high plains east of the Eastern Front Ranges of the Rockies... That whole atmosphere has a tendency to roll/turn over its self, because the predominating westerlies blowing over the Rockies sets up a static counter current/potential vorticity at low levels.  Even without a high pressure system retreating east (that only enhances), the flow is going to "tend" to be drawn NW up toward the low pressure that results when the higher velocity air passes overhead ...  It's no different really than Bernoulli's Principle with wind passing over a arced surface ... causes lift under a wing, and the air moves toward the lift, and a rotor results near the wing tips. You've probably seen that in movies and such when an air-craft passes through back lit smoke plumes. 

Anyway, there are two vectors there, really: one is that anolog of the air foil and the geological/topographical forcing; the other is the retreating high.  When the happen together, you get SPC Enhanced risk regions.. .heh.  But, just imagine all that complexity similarly set up - just smaller in scale - over the ~ 50 miles of eastern Maine ( from interior SE NH all the way to Caribou).

In fact, you could also argue there is similar phenomenon of even smaller scales that set up in the CT River valley, where the topography encourages counter-currents at low levels to move/back more SE at low levels.  And ascent of air masses suspended through that kind of static rotor tendency will have a head start on meso construction.

Turbo geek moment.  I've often found jobs working in the 2nd or 3rd floors of office buildings in my time.  One of my favorite times of the year is mid to late October, when leaf fall festoons the lawns and commons around the building, and wind is a bluster.  You can see these "pretend" fronts of leafs blowing across the open expanses... But, around the corners of the buildings there can be seemingly permanent leaf-nados ..  That's actually similar phenomenon, though. Come to think about it ... it's no different really than a scientist setting up smaller analog models of large systems in a laboratory to study how the system works.  Although, the greater forces of humanity and architecture never set out to create leaf vortexes ..the circumstance still provides the analogy.

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I was a bit surprised that the Storm Prediction Center decided to go with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and not a tornado watch for C/NNE yesterday.   Really ended up being not so much of a severe day as far as wind, hail and tons of lightning but a heavy rain day with brief windups.  That Sebego Lake tornado/waterspout could have been much worse.  A few boats in the path and a few drownings would have caused all kinds of speculation as to why a tornado watch was never issued. Even if a warning was not put up in time a watch would have gained peoples attention as its pretty rare up here.  It seemed to me it was the discreet cells rapidly moving north as the main line moved east.  Did NNE dodge a built yesterday?

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9 hours ago, Arnold214 said:

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

Great job Mike, ECK gone wild

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9 hours ago, Arnold214 said:

That was a day I won't forget for awhile. I didn't even realize I had issued 7 tors and 12 svr's until i got home at 1030 tonight. I probably could have issued 9 or 10 tors but some of the signatures were fleeting. If Hanrahan is reading this thread, I appreciate the twitter kudos. Saw it, just never had a chance to respond. 

Awesome job Mike by yourself and the WFO getting the warnings out yesterday, Extremly chaotic in the Lakes region as I was getting reports from friends and family in that area.

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27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I was a bit surprised that the Storm Prediction Center decided to go with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and not a tornado watch for C/NNE yesterday.   Really ended up being not so much of a severe day as far as wind, hail and tons of lightning but a heavy rain day with brief windups.  That Sebego Lake tornado/waterspout could have been much worse.  A few boats in the path and a few drownings would have caused all kinds of speculation as to why a tornado watch was never issued. Even if a warning was not put up in time a watch would have gained peoples attention as its pretty rare up here.  It seemed to me it was the discreet cells rapidly moving north as the main line moved east.  Did NNE dodge a built yesterday?

Nah ... I understand where you're coming from but they would have been covered.

Go back and re-read their Watch statements and meso-discussions... they enhanced their wording for the potential for tornadoes.  

There's that, and, by definition, severe thunderstorm watches put tornadoes in there as a possibility.  

Here's what would have happened in the aftermath of your imagined tragedy:   ...there would have been a "congressional hearing" (if not literally...figuratively) to target NWS nuts for squeezing, tucked under the a proverbial heading of a civility made less informed about the perils of yesterday's weather.   Wrong. 

In reality, this would be a blame game, passing away from the civility in question, because they are negligent to know and understand what these things mean - and it IS their charge to know and understand what the cautions and or warning statements mean.  

People routinely ignore the cautions and warning statements... Then, an interesting sort of reaction emerges; a kind of version of Grief staging takes place.  As we know, one of those stages is anger ... That anger then enrages the population affected to go out and find something to blame and admonition for their suffering - when it's their own stupid f'n fault.  On a petty level ...it's almost embarrassing to listen to them. They sound like donkeys going 'hee-haw hee haw' while the elide and dance around their own culpability.

I remember in weeks post ..I think it was "Charley", which made landfall on the western coast of the Fl Penn, a video surfaced of a face-punched disheveled patron of a local diner ... He was being interviewed, and the diner was cleverly positioned in the backdrop of the scene by the producer shooting the video ... that had it's roof bifurcated and removed from the establishment.  In fact, there weren't very many windows left either.  This idiot espoused to the interviewer, "...I don't understand; the forecasters screwed up; the storm was supposed to hit 30 miles up the coast to the N..."

What can I say... There are sooo many things wrong with that line of reasoning and excuse making for why he was in the establishment when the eye-wall of a Category 3 hurricane slammed through the community...one does not know where to begin.   Maybe just call that a Darwin Award whee the recipient missed the actual ceremony?  What that is/was, ...that is an example of a person in the Anger phase of the post traumatic Grief recovery, and looking for someone to blame for his is own neolithic incompetence. 

 

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't sell the FFW short either. That was also impressive with the terrain to boot. I'm on vacation on Winnipesaukee and noted the arc of showers (at the time) on the WF east of the original cluster of storms near LEB. Shear was quite visible just by looking at the various cigs visible by eye. I saw the HRRR sounding and nearly fell of my beach chair lol. Funny thing was that their wasn't a ton of LTG on the southern line despite the impressive DBZ. Seemed like it was reserved for the cells with the stronger updrafts.....but an extremely juiced atmosphere. Nice job by you and the others at Gray.  Hopefully you had a few cold ones to relax after shift. 

Yeah the FF was extremely impressive. Warm cloud depths were through the roof. We split duties so someone else was doing the flash flood warnings which is a huge job by itself. I'm not sure I have ever worked an event where the "trifecta" of thunderstorm threats (tor, svr, ff) were present together for a whole shift.

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember in weeks post ..I think it was "Charley", which made landfall on the western coast of the Fl Penn, a video surfaced of a face-punched disheveled patron of a local diner ... He was being interviewed, and the diner was cleverly positioned in the backdrop of the scene by the producer shooting the video ... that had it's roof bifurcated and removed from the establishment.  In fact, there weren't very many windows left either.  This idiot espoused to the interviewer, "...I don't understand; the forecasters screwed up; the storm was supposed to hit 30 miles up the coast to the N..."

That was pretty much everyone in Port Charlotte.  I got teased for putting up plywood and preparing.

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I have to add the the first Bridgton supercell cycled like it was in KS or something. The first meso peeled off to the NW as the hook dissipated with another hook and new meso forming to the southeast. I haven't seen a clearly cyclic tornadic supercell up here before. 

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6 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Friend of a friend on Conway lake claiming tornado hit there.  Is that one one of the spots to survey?

 

I'm not sure if anyone is going to that area today. If you can give me a general idea of the damage and and possibly some pics i can pass it along. I am off today.

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23 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

I have to add the the first Bridgton supercell cycled like it was in KS or something. The first meso peeled off to the NW as the hook dissipated with another hook and new meso forming to the southeast. I haven't seen a clearly cyclic tornadic supercell up here before. 

Is there a radar link to the whole line?

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