Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: We can't say for sure it's deteriorating. I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless. But for how long is the question. The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And you'll never convince me that a model can predict an 850 line down to 25 miles accurately. DC is very close even during the bad times. Obviously we get the synoptic, but we won't know the mesoscale details until that R/S line sets up. At least here in 95 land. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Wasn't as bad as I thought up here. All the I95 cities from Washington to Boston mix, but I don't see much plain rain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 What I don't get is that the RGEM is inland/west and has bad thermals. NAM (can't keep track of which NAM) had the SLP is a much more favorable location but thermals still suck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. Seems weird for surface to still be below freezing with those 850s, track and wind direction tho....Whatevs, Whicha got GFS Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vinylfreak89 Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is near perfect, just 50 miles too far inland. But the dynamics are stunningSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM also has Baltimore down to 13 degrees tonight Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We can't say for sure it's deteriorating. I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless. But for how long is the question. It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cae Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM still manages a decent front-end thump before the changeover. Here are the last three runs. It also has about 0.7" of freezing rain for DC. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The RGEM also has Baltimore down to 13 degrees tonight Only 16 degrees to go!! LOL. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is more amped up through 18hrs, but not by much. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. If the GFS holds, then we'll be just as blind to what's gonna happen as anybody else who doesn't follow the models like we do, lol Insane Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 GFS at 21 continuing the theme of digging that northern stream energy more southwest. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 I see the gfs slowing and deepening the midwest short wave compared to prior runs. What the difference will be we'll know shortly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 GFS looks like the NAM on the H5 at 24 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Developing center right over MYR at 24. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 GFS bumped up start time and qpf through 6z but a little warmer in the mids. SLP hanging back more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS and NAM look almost the exact same on the H5 map @ 30 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Offshore track so that is a distinct difference from the RGEM Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TL97 Posted March 13, 2017 850 0 degree line passes DC at 36 but then goes back southeastward by 39 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Probably 50 miles or so to the west with the track so walking the line of course but helps bump qpf along the corridor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted March 13, 2017 Okay I guess that was a 12mb pressure drop from 30-36. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 33 skew is snow, but it's close Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted March 13, 2017 At 30, the low is positioned just a tick sw of its position on the 18z. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 DC crushed at 36h. Zero mixing, even the 95 crowd is happy here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 we manage to hang on to snow, but it definitely is warmer vs 18z. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted March 13, 2017 I would think with a 990 just off the southern Delmarva we would mix regardless of the model output. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EHoffman Posted March 13, 2017 SLP at 36 is nearly identical to the NAM, GFS just far colder. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: DC crushed at 36h. Zero mixing, even the 95 crowd is happy here. Still worried. The GFS has trended each time to slow down and dig the SW further to the southwest Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
