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stormtracker

March 13/14th PSU Storm

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We can't say for sure it's deteriorating.  I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless.   But for how long is the question.  

The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And you'll never convince me that a model can predict an 850 line down to 25 miles accurately.  DC is very close even during the bad times.

Obviously we get the synoptic, but we won't know the mesoscale details until that R/S line sets up. At least here in 95 land. 

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Wasn't as bad as I thought up here. All the I95 cities from Washington to Boston mix, but I don't see much plain rain.

 

snku_acc.us_ma.png

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What I don't get is that the RGEM is inland/west and has bad thermals.  NAM (can't keep track of which NAM) had the SLP is a much more favorable location but thermals still suck.  

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. 

Seems weird for surface to still be below freezing with those 850s, track and wind direction tho....Whatevs, Whicha got GFS

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't say for sure it's deteriorating.  I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless.   But for how long is the question.  

It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. 

If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. 

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RGEM still manages a decent front-end thump before the changeover.  Here are the last three runs. 

It also has about 0.7" of freezing rain for DC.

KWW6ZjJ.gif

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1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

The RGEM also has Baltimore down to 13 degrees tonight

Only 16 degrees to go!! LOL.

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GFS is more amped up through 18hrs, but not by much.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. 

If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. 

If the GFS holds, then we'll be just as blind to what's gonna happen as anybody else who doesn't follow the models like we do, lol Insane

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Okay I guess that was a 12mb pressure drop from 30-36.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

DC crushed at 36h. Zero mixing, even the 95 crowd is happy here.

Still worried.  The GFS has trended each time to slow down and dig the SW further to the southwest

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