Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Eastern half of LI has always been in play for a changeover. Just west of that and the coastal front should be where we see the greatest accumulations. Also there could be a secondary maximum with any Deform that remains semi stationary. Usually 50 miles west of the first maximum. Early guess would be western LI for the primary maximum and Ne jers up into the LHV for the secondary. I think we could have someone clear 30" like we saw in most of the biggies the last 10 years 

Yeah, I'm glad to see nothing changed from last night lol.  central coastal NJ to eastern LI to SE NE should be where the coastal front sets up.  Just west of there sees the highest rates and near and to the east of that it will mix.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. That's the biggest take home it looks nothing like the other models. Yes it's been good this winter and I'll give it valifidty inside 48h.

as it stands right now a track right inside the benchmark looks like the best bet. I wouldn't want to be east of central Suffolk with that track. West of there a 1-2' snow looks greater then 75% likely now. Exact totals and coastal impacts are what we should focus on from here out 

 75% chance of 18-24" west of ISP.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its not often we get storms to last for a full 24 hours. Sometimes we get some lingering back end or snow showers but not accumulating type stuff. 96 was around 30 hours but that's definitely not the norm. PD2 was about 18 hours, a break then some heavier stuff in the evening before some freezing drizzle and then snow showers the next day

last year's big storm was like 36 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Not really up for debate anymore... widespread 12-18... where our CCB sets up is who sees 20+.. Nam will comes east in line with GFS/euro/ukie/ggem.... intensity could very as we are still 48-72 hours... and I would expect to see slow upticks in the western precip shield...

 

personally i like think long island/ NYC sees 20+... I also think many interior portions of NNJ, NEPA, and the HV will see slightly less QPF..but better ratios, compensating for the city's higher LE.... I'm going all in with uniform 18-24" for most on the sub here...12-18 for most of interior (Far interior) and locally 24+ for Island, SCT

We're on the same page uniform 18-24, with a few higher amounts both well inland and near the coast (but not eastern LI or south central NJ where it may mix)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

00z Tuesday our trough is really digging, looking at 500 and how deep it digs id expect this run to take a small tick west and possibly a bit stronger 

This is going to go east of last night's run.  Prob just to the east of the BM.  There heights on the east coast were are lower this run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.6 to 0.7 for the city, up to 1.1 on far E LI, and barely .2-.5 for the LHV...not really a good run but we got a plenty of time and this kind of wiggling is expected at this lead time, its good to see the CMC go west and the GFS tick east, so there is some room to go in any direction really. But they euro verbatim would not be a great run for the area., especially LHV 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't believe the Euro solution will be what realizes, but this goes to show that calling 12-18 and saying done is irresponsible this far out. There are a lot of potential solutions here. For the past several days when people have asked my thoughts, I've said 6-18, just because there are so many possibilities for this.

We know that there will be a phase, this much is clear. A big storm is on the horizon for someone. Given this winter's general pattern with these events, I'd say a track just SE of the benchmark is probably the best way to go, favoring E LI and SE Mass. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Euro is a noticeable jump east, just east of the BM it looks like at 84, more of a glancing blow with this one than a direct hit, but still a good amount of snow.

ouch that was always a worry, everything was ideal last night.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

0.6 to 0.7 for the city, up to 1.1 on far E LI, and barely .2-.5 for the LHV...not really a good run but we got a plenty of time and this kind of wiggling is expected at this lead time, its good to see the CMC go west and the GFS tick east, so there is some room to go in any direction really. But they euro verbatim would not be a great run for the area., especially LHV 

What did the UK do?  I haven't seen it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...