UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 No major changes through 36 hours on euro, energy positioned relatively the same, our 2nd wave is a tad quicker to move offshore which bodes well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Eastern half of LI has always been in play for a changeover. Just west of that and the coastal front should be where we see the greatest accumulations. Also there could be a secondary maximum with any Deform that remains semi stationary. Usually 50 miles west of the first maximum. Early guess would be western LI for the primary maximum and Ne jers up into the LHV for the secondary. I think we could have someone clear 30" like we saw in most of the biggies the last 10 years Yeah, I'm glad to see nothing changed from last night lol. central coastal NJ to eastern LI to SE NE should be where the coastal front sets up. Just west of there sees the highest rates and near and to the east of that it will mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Looks like our thoughts from last night at 3 am are working out. I just woke up....but the late night was definitely worth it. The only thing that would improve this would be a stall but that's its. Flow is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. That's the biggest take home it looks nothing like the other models. Yes it's been good this winter and I'll give it valifidty inside 48h. as it stands right now a track right inside the benchmark looks like the best bet. I wouldn't want to be east of central Suffolk with that track. West of there a 1-2' snow looks greater then 75% likely now. Exact totals and coastal impacts are what we should focus on from here out 75% chance of 18-24" west of ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Guys please read the storm mode note at the top of the site.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Northern stream energy stronger and diving deeper south this run, not by much, by still present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Its not often we get storms to last for a full 24 hours. Sometimes we get some lingering back end or snow showers but not accumulating type stuff. 96 was around 30 hours but that's definitely not the norm. PD2 was about 18 hours, a break then some heavier stuff in the evening before some freezing drizzle and then snow showers the next day last year's big storm was like 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not really up for debate anymore... widespread 12-18... where our CCB sets up is who sees 20+.. Nam will comes east in line with GFS/euro/ukie/ggem.... intensity could very as we are still 48-72 hours... and I would expect to see slow upticks in the western precip shield... personally i like think long island/ NYC sees 20+... I also think many interior portions of NNJ, NEPA, and the HV will see slightly less QPF..but better ratios, compensating for the city's higher LE.... I'm going all in with uniform 18-24" for most on the sub here...12-18 for most of interior (Far interior) and locally 24+ for Island, SCT We're on the same page uniform 18-24, with a few higher amounts both well inland and near the coast (but not eastern LI or south central NJ where it may mix) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 00z Tuesday our trough is really digging, looking at 500 and how deep it digs id expect this run to take a small tick west and possibly a bit stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 72hrs euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Snows start moving into jersey 06z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 All of jersey under heavy snow by hr 72... NYC on the verge of heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z Tuesday our trough is really digging, looking at 500 and how deep it digs id expect this run to take a small tick west and possibly a bit stronger This is going to go east of last night's run. Prob just to the east of the BM. There heights on the east coast were are lower this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro is east. About 1" QPF for NYC with a sharp cutoff west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro is a noticeable jump east, just east of the BM it looks like at 84, more of a glancing blow with this one than a direct hit, but still a good amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hello storm trackers!! All ready for about 8-12" here (though I think areas N & E could see 12-24"). I'm glad the cold air will not go to waste this time around.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Man... lower heights really squashed us this time... hopefully this is NOT a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Man... lower heights really squashed us this time... hopefully this is NOT a trend NAO is heading to +1.5-2. This is all going to come down to the phase. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: Euro is east. About 1" QPF for NYC with a sharp cutoff west. Still a solid storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ugly east shift for us in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0.6 to 0.7 for the city, up to 1.1 on far E LI, and barely .2-.5 for the LHV...not really a good run but we got a plenty of time and this kind of wiggling is expected at this lead time, its good to see the CMC go west and the GFS tick east, so there is some room to go in any direction really. But they euro verbatim would not be a great run for the area., especially LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So the EURO went from a HECS to, what, a run of the mill 6" event in one run? For NYC and NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Extreme eastern Long Island, and central to southern CT are the only ones that see a foot here... 6-10 for most 1-3/3-6 north and west of city.... not a time to worry after 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't believe the Euro solution will be what realizes, but this goes to show that calling 12-18 and saying done is irresponsible this far out. There are a lot of potential solutions here. For the past several days when people have asked my thoughts, I've said 6-18, just because there are so many possibilities for this. We know that there will be a phase, this much is clear. A big storm is on the horizon for someone. Given this winter's general pattern with these events, I'd say a track just SE of the benchmark is probably the best way to go, favoring E LI and SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So it went from a coastal hugger worry to an OTS worry. I'd give it another run before panicking but we are getting better sampling of data today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Euro is a noticeable jump east, just east of the BM it looks like at 84, more of a glancing blow with this one than a direct hit, but still a good amount of snow. ouch that was always a worry, everything was ideal last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Can't remember last time euro had this much of shift inside 3 days... have to see how eps handles... as of now euro is the eastern,weakest outlier... GFS/eps/Gefs/ggem/Nam... all strong and west of euro.. see how 18z unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, that is just a convective feedback issue with the two lows rather than a late phase kicking the development more east. It seemed to jump to deep convection to the east but I'm not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: 0.6 to 0.7 for the city, up to 1.1 on far E LI, and barely .2-.5 for the LHV...not really a good run but we got a plenty of time and this kind of wiggling is expected at this lead time, its good to see the CMC go west and the GFS tick east, so there is some room to go in any direction really. But they euro verbatim would not be a great run for the area., especially LHV What did the UK do? I haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: It seemed to jump to deep convection to the east but I'm not a met. It's not unheard of. Sometimes that's what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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