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March 10th 2017 Clipper disco/obs


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Still a lot of uncertainty for this close in. Obviously the Euro/UK/NAM would be the best for most of our subforum, but the Canadian models and probably GFS would be slop/slush near the coast and in the city. Best bet right now is probably 1-3" near the city and 3-5" north and west and possibly over Suffolk/N Shore.

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12 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

looks to be a solid snowstorm on the EURO

I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. 

I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation.

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47 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. 

I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation.

Euro has no precip after 10am either.

It all falls 4am to 10am.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM is basically useless for this event right now

RGEM has had a decent handle... normally I like the nam, especially this season, but we're seeing a far different pattern/set-up and Nam seems to be having trouble... its fluctuated between north and south on run to run swing, I'll be going with RGEM/GFS blend on this one 

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11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RGEM has had a decent handle... normally I like the nam, especially this season, but we're seeing a far different pattern/set-up and Nam seems to be having trouble... its fluctuated between north and south on run to run swing, I'll be going with RGEM/GFS blend on this one 

Also keep in mind that the EURO/JMA/UKIE all show almost the same track

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Just now, jm1220 said:

RGEM again only really snows north of the city and in SNE.

It came south compared to the 12z run though. On the 12z run you had to go well north of NYC to see accumulation. This 18z run gets a little accumulation down to NYC, based on what I saw from the color loop. I'm waiting to see the snow maps. 

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3 hours ago, nzucker said:

I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. 

I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation.

Good call. People need to remember there is plenty of cold aloft. Any heavier rates will bring down colder air. Allot of 32 and paste. We are heading Into elevation season. Above 1000 it could be a warning level event 

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7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Or just widen the precip field

I could live with that lol...

 

I need 3.9" to hit my average (54) 

idk about some of you but this has been a great winter IMO.... 2 severe weather threats, winds in excess of 70mph and tornados, a ton of nickle and dime events that were fun to track (despite the bickering lol) a sleet storm that dropped nearly half a foot of sleet here, and a couple good warning events... not to mention multiple 70+ days that pushed 80f, an upcoming clipper, and a very ripe pattern for the next 2 weeks that, IMO will produce a MECS.... can't ask for much more other than that folks

 

btw I'm all in for wave 3, never liked the weekend wave, and always thought our best shot was next week

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7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I could live with that lol...

 

I need 3.9" to hit my average (54) 

idk about some of you but this has been a great winter IMO.... 2 severe weather threats, winds in excess of 70mph and tornados, a ton of nickle and dime events that were fun to track (despite the bickering lol) a sleet storm that dropped nearly half a foot of sleet here, and a couple good warning events... not to mention multiple 70+ days that pushed 80f, an upcoming clipper, and a very ripe pattern for the next 2 weeks that, IMO will produce a MECS.... can't ask for much more other than that folks

 

btw I'm all in for wave 3, never liked the weekend wave, and always thought our best shot was next week

It's pretty outragous that I'm sitting at under 15" on the season and you have nearly four times more snow than me not more than 40-50 miles to my NNW.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It's pretty outragous that I'm sitting at under 15" on the season and you have nearly four times more snow than me not more than 40-50 miles to my NNW.

Ur really under 15? Jesus 

our totals up here were inflated from a good December.. I think December ended around 20-28" up here 

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Ur really under 15? Jesus 

our totals up here were inflated from a good December.. I think December ended around 20-28" up here 

Had 4" from that one storm the week before Christmas I believe. Had 9" from the bigger storm from February. All the other events have added up to about 2" total. Woud have had a lot more with the early February storm but lost a lot to sleet and freezing rain.

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