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Tim from Springfield (IL)

Mar. 6-7 Severe Risk

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nice SUP in the line

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
529 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CST.  
  
* AT 529 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF GOWRIE, OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF FORT  
  DODGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED   TORNADO WARNING   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS   531 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017     THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   EAST CENTRAL GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...   SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...   NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...   SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...     * UNTIL 600 PM CST     * AT 531 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A   TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OGDEN, MOVING EAST-   NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.     HAZARD...TORNADO.     SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.     IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE   DAMAGE IS LIKELY.     * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...   ALMA AROUND 545 PM CST.   WAMEGO AND MCFARLAND AROUND 550 PM CST.   PAXICO AROUND 555 PM CST.   BELVUE AROUND 600 PM CST.     THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 308 AND 337.  

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Not on the severe side, but there is an incredible amount of blowing dust on the backside of the dry line in KS, so much so that it is showing up on radar, along with the smoke from multiple fires.

Edit: here is a blip from Dodge City's AFD with a bit of a pun included:

Quote
Earth, wind, and fire. Not only a good band, but accurately describes
todays weather. Blowing dust continues this afternoon and will let
the blowing dust advisory ride out. Winds have been very strong, as
expected. GOES 16 satellite imagery shows numerous wildfires across
the forecast district. A red flag warning remains in effect until this
evening and another one is in effect for tomorrow for Dodge City and
points north. See fire weather section for additional details.

For tonight, the cold front will move through. The very strong SW/W
winds will eventually become NW. The winds will decrease in magnitude
by this evening. Lows tonight are expected to be mainly in the 20s.

For tomorrow, we will be post-frontal. Considerably cooler highs are
expected with values peaking in the 60s. The winds will be weaker /NW
20-30 mph/ with the strongest winds across the northern zones. Another
red flag day is expected.

 

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looks like MN broke the record for earliest tornado

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
551 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
MNC059-095-141-070015-  
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170307T0015Z/  
MILLE LACS MN-ISANTI MN-SHERBURNE MN-  
551 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN MILLE LACS...NORTHWESTERN ISANTI AND NORTHEASTERN  
SHERBURNE COUNTIES...  
      
AT 549 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ZIMMERMAN,   
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL TORNADO IS HEADING FOR   
PRINCETON. PEOPLE IN THE PRINCETON AREA SHOULD BE SEEKING SHELTER   
NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

 

 

 

 

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
556 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
MNC059-095-141-070015-  
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170307T0015Z/  
MILLE LACS MN-ISANTI MN-SHERBURNE MN-  
556 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN MILLE LACS...NORTHWESTERN ISANTI AND NORTHEASTERN  
SHERBURNE COUNTIES...  
      
AT 556 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH SIDE   
OF PRINCETON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PEOPLE IN THE PRINCETON   
AREA SHOULD BE SEEKING SHELTER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

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kansas city metro and MO in trouble if those cells keep developing ahead of line

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
558 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
  SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 630 PM CST  
  
* AT 558 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. MARYS,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  

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O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170307T0030Z/  
SHAWNEE-JACKSON-  
622 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHERN  
SHAWNEE AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...  
      
AT 619 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SILVER LAKE,  
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 1 MILE NORTH SILVER   
         LAKE   

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A lot of QLCS tors in IA/MO/KS this evening.

 

Fairly significant one recently in the KC metro area, with a CC sig.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Line in Iowa looks decent.  Warned for 70 mph winds.  

Curious to see how quickly it weakens later. LOT radar STILL down but will be back up on the 8th.

Still pretty decent pressure falls ahead of the front , plenty of juice, and a strengthening low level jet in W IL. SPC mentioning there is still a possibility of discreet cells forming ahead in of the front in IL.  I don't think there will be much weakening for the nest 3-5 hours.

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21 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Still pretty decent pressure falls ahead of the front , plenty of juice, and a strengthening low level jet in W IL. SPC mentioning there is still a possibility of discreet cells forming ahead in of the front in IL.  I don't think there will be much weakening for the nest 3-5 hours.

Speaking of the LLJ, models have it ramping up to around 80+ kts.

Near the eastern edge of the marginal risk here, which is hard to argue against given the dwindling instability by then.  Still probably more interested than I should be... there is some MUCAPE available well into the night and it wouldn't take much to mix down those strong winds.

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29 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said:

Tornado watches will be coming to western and central IL soon:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0265.html

(80% likelihood of tornado watch includes Quincy, St. Louis, and Springfield)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0263.html

(for eastern extent of IA storms, goes as far east as Rockford, LaSalle/Peru, and Peoria).

Tornado Watch #66 now issued until 4AM for most of the areas covered by the forementioned MDs (including as far east as Peoria and Springfield, but none of LOT's CWA at this time).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0066.html

 

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Similar to Hawkeye, had some pea size hail and wind of 50-55 mph, but missed the area of strongest winds according to DMX velocity since DVN appears to be having some issues. Pretty good March storm here, I'll take it.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1021 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
ILC161-IAC139-163-070500-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170307T0500Z/  
ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-  
1021 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT AND EAST CENTRAL  
MUSCATINE COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1020 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BLUE GRASS, OR 8  
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DURANT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.   
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  DAVENPORT AROUND 1035 PM CST.   

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