Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Last hour's SPC Day 1 left the enhanced risk as is for SW and central MO. 5% tornado risk even extends as far east as western IL overnight: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Still liking southeast KS the best for later today. Less storm competition than further north, and better instability. These storms will be just south of the strongest mid-levels, so storm motion won't be as crazy as areas to the north. One problem is there's a little less forcing down this way, so it may be harder to get initiation before sunset. If something can go though it would be worth the gamble. Another target would be up in southwest into central MN. Up here you'll be on the nose of the powerful mid jet, and surface winds are much more backed than down in Iowa. Instability axis is pretty narrow further north, but it's actually pretty decent with the HRRRRRR showing over 1500J/kg. No way I can make it to southeast KS and be back for work tomorrow, and even the southwest into central MN target would be pushing it. Given the 40-50kt+ storm speeds in both targets I'll probably sit this one out. If I had tomorrow off I'd be heading for southeast KS and hoping the MN target busts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Earliest tornado on record in Minnesota is March 18. Can today do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Earliest tornado on record in Minnesota is March 18. Can today do it? If there's ever a year to do it, I think this is the one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: If there's ever a year to do it, I think this is the one lol. True. This is like the 3rd or 4th time lately with an anomalously far north threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Earliest tornado on record in Minnesota is March 18. Can today do it?HRRR wants to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 ENH expanded into far se IA and western IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: ENH expanded into far se IA and western IL. Also 10% hatched tor introduced back across MO after being dropped down to 5% on the previous risk. The hatched area is new for any risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: True. This is like the 3rd or 4th time lately with an anomalously far north threat. Even though things get shunted south with this cold pattern for this upcoming weekend and early next week, I think we are in line for more action by late month. The EML source region this year is in the best conditions for that area that we have seen in years. The lack of STJ as kept that area pristine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 It does feel strange to be talking about EML's and not worrying about sufficient moisture which is usually the concern for early season storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Indystorm said: It does feel strange to be talking about EML's and not worrying about sufficient moisture which is usually the concern for early season storms. The bigger thing to me is, what might happen when we start getting the sufficient and eventually abundant moisture into the region in April/May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: The bigger thing to me is, what might happen when we start getting the sufficient and eventually abundant moisture into the region in April/May/June. Very true if that dryline moves farther east and we get that capping inversion with abundant moisture. When it breaks things could really get bad in a hurry in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: The bigger thing to me is, what might happen when we start getting the sufficient and eventually abundant moisture into the region in April/May/June. Any chance it quiets down like it did in 2012? Because so far, at least temp and snowfall wise, this year reminds me a lot of that year. Can't speak for actual precip amounts in the winter though. I do know that summer ended up being dry for our area however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Any chance it quiets down like it did in 2012? Because so far, at least temp and snowfall wise, this year reminds me a lot of that year. Can't speak for actual precip amounts in the winter though. I do know that summer ended up being dry for our area however. I would look at the current drought monitor for source regions of the EML. I don't recall if things were that dry in that region when we warmed early here in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I would look at the current drought monitor for source regions of the EML. I don't recall if things were that dry in that region when we warmed early here in 2012. 2012 had a big drought in TX and another, small one, across the northern plains. Overall 2012 was drier than it is now. So I guess we shall see. EDIT: that drought expanded to cover everywhere west of the Mississippi all the way to the pacific. I highly doubt we see that again do to the current wave train that has set up for the past several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Thanks for the precip information. Tor watch coming soon now for IA per SPC meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF IOWA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 061908Z - 062145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IA IN THE GENERAL 2030Z-2200Z TIME FRAME AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EASTWARD. THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITHIN THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE. THIS HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE, A PSEUDO-DRYLINE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND SERVE AS A FOCUSED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE GENERAL 2030Z-2200Z TIME FRAME. WARM-SECTOR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0-2.5 MB PER 2 HOURS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, WITH AT LEAST SOME FLOW COMPONENT ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE AND AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE, INITIALLY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN IA -- AIDED BY 50-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WITH TIME, UPSCALE GROWTH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOSTER STORM CLUSTERS AND QLCS SEGMENTS SPREADING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND ACCELERATES EASTWARD. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT MODEST (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S), STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO AN OVERLYING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY (MLCAPE AROUND 750-1250 J/KG) FOR ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE RELATIVELY GREATER FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AMID EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR, AND PERHAPS WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..COHEN/GRAMS.. 03/06/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tor watch also coming soon for southern MN. Although mentioned as a possibility earlier this one does surprise me. Kinematics over themo I guess. Add NW MO and eastern KS. The whole area seems to be unzipping a bit sooner than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Any chance it quiets down like it did in 2012? Because so far, at least temp and snowfall wise, this year reminds me a lot of that year. Can't speak for actual precip amounts in the winter though. I do know that summer ended up being dry for our area however. There is always a chance but considering the active pattern across the country, I would be surprised if we got the drought conditions we had in 2012 also colder April and early May of 2012 would be a shock if that occurred this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 SPC meso already showing some pockets of 2000J/kg surface cape in parts of Iowa and southeast Nebraska. Moisture seems a little bit less than what some of the models are showing, but the EML and strong forcing is going to help overcome that. Already some elevated hailers near the IA/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Quite a bit of clearing evident out ahead of those developing storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Quite a bit of clearing evident out ahead of those developing storms HRRR looks downright nasty as that line progresses from central into eastern Iowa later on. Definitely some decent QLCS tor potential as the line continues to mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 TOR warned cell in northern IA embedded in a line more discrete cells in central MN MSP metro may be under the gun soon storms moving fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 becoming concerned about MSP metro and SE MN when those storms interact with the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 450 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 515 PM CST * AT 449 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COKATO, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... HOWARD LAKE AROUND 500 PM CST. MAPLE LAKE AROUND 510 PM CST. BUFFALO AROUND 515 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 MSP could be getting into some severe stuff here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Wmsptwx said: MSP could be getting into some severe stuff here shortly. that storm is crossing he WF right now.....it was discrete and was turning a little right before that storm developed and merge from the south....this will affect the far NW metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Things seem to be going linear quickly, a few small cells out front in Iowa, but look to be swallowed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Things seem to be going linear quickly, a few small cells out front in Iowa, but look to be swallowed up. Indeed. Looks like main tor risk will be something embedded within the QLCS or if by chance a discrete storm goes up further south in the KS/OK/MO/AR border area. Happy I wasn't able to chase after all, as the window for discrete activity in IA/MN was very short, even more so than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 another one crossing the WF ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 526 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 600 PM CST * AT 525 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MONTICELLO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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