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Bob Chill

Winter 2017-18 Disco

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37 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

How likely do you think this will be?

CFS agrees, for what that is worth. It has been pretty consistent with the bad look for a while now. Normally when it shows something decent it quickly flips.

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42 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

How likely do you think this will be?

Hard to say. Cansips seems pretty good at 1 month lead and Nov is a disaster too. Very strong +ao/nao. If that happens then the odds of no blocking goes up quite a bit. 

 

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS agrees, for what that is worth. It has been pretty consistent with the bad look for a while now. Normally when it shows something decent it quickly flips.

Winter 18-19 is gonna b rockin

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Winter 18-19 is gonna b rockin

El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time.

For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but  there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time.

For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but  there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now.

I'm optimistic, it's pretty likely that this winter won't be nearly as warm as the last two imo. Also, even if it is warm, we can still see good snows, as evident in 2016 and last year. 

In fact it is for that exact reason why I'm baffled that so many pros still issue snow amount forecasts, they know that there is always a possibility of a HECS to just waltz in and destroy every one of those forecasts.  

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time.

For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but  there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now.

Well, the CanSips will prob look better with the Dec run because I don't think it's possible to draw up a worse run than tonight's. Lol

The only thing that is troubling is all med and lr guidance is showing a +ao. And it's not a "muddy" +AO either. It's pretty hideous. There really are absolutely no encouraging signs showing up right now. 4 weeks till kickoff. 

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Damn, we're early this year. Writing off the winter before November lol

Jokes aside, indices don't mean much for me. All it takes is one storm and everything changes. Past winter was arguably one of the worst for the mid-atlantic, but I got lucky with one storm, got 7 inches, ended up with (barely) AN snowfall for the winter and a 3-4 day stretch with temps constantly below 32 (even broke a record for record low high, was something like 23 degrees)

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28 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Damn, we're early this year. Writing off the winter before November lol

Jokes aside, indices don't mean much for me. All it takes is one storm and everything changes. Past winter was arguably one of the worst for the mid-atlantic, but I got lucky with one storm, got 7 inches, ended up with (barely) AN snowfall for the winter and a 3-4 day stretch with temps constantly below 32 (even broke a record for record low high, was something like 23 degrees)

I honestly enjoyed tracking all the near misses last year and especially the sleet fest that lasted with abundant qpf. That storm could have really scored us something big if we were a few degrees colder. 

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WT360 is the best vendor at predicting seasonal snowfall as far as I can tell -and they have large areas of the country similar to last year, but snow deeper into the mid-South to SW relative to last year, which is certainly consistent with my thinking.

DLTo2mU.png

I'm a fan of the Canadian as has been discussed here - but its worth noting the latest Canadian run has the NW dry for winter (WA was dry in 2016-17) so not quite a canonical outlook from the model despite a fairly healthy Nina on the latest run.

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I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. 

The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. 

The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. 

I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. 

 

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6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. 

The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. 

The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. 

I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. 

 

The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. 

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40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

This is why I would handle the Cansips with caution.

 

Last months predicted Nov 500mb

rsz_cansips_z500a_namer_2.png.5b862f08adeb0de23845f43799a1485a.png

 

Latest Nov 500mb prediction

rsz_cansips_z500a_namer_1.png.769a01523cb91abb36d8823a300c9545.png

 

Last months predicted Nov temps

rsz_cansips_t2ma_namer_2.png.4eb7f2549b69931c37ef3fbfc969e8ab.png

Latest predicted Nov temps.

rsz_cansips_t2ma_namer_1.png.e2caccb52df5b77cf970ac2e2b8b5c14.png

 

As Bob pointed out, the CanSIPS seem to do well at a one month lead, i.e. the current run is probably much closer to what will transpire over the next month. Combine that with the current/predicted AO state, and other guidance like the CFS (check out the weeklies), we are likely going to need some serious modification to the pattern as we head into December (again).

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. 

This. After reading some posts last night I expected to see deep reds over the area with +4 to +6 departures. Far from it. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. 

Its hard to say beyond a month. Trying to glean something positive through all the smoothing, the Pac looks like it could be decent at times. We would certainly see some transient cold shots. The +AO is the most concerning thing. 

As I mentioned the other night, what we are seeing atm on pretty much all LR ens/climate guidance at h5 looks a hell of a lot like a composite of last winter. Hopefully something changes in our favor. It would be nice see some encouraging signs over the next couple weeks. It's still way early, and I am not resigned to the idea of a wall to wall bad winter by any means. We just need a few good periods and some luck. 

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5 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

This. After reading some posts last night I expected to see deep reds over the area with +4 to +6 departures. Far from it. 

I don't have much value for 2m temps on super long range guidance. I only look at h5. The advertised mean pattern is not a good one for wintry weather in the MA. The "not as warm as expected" surface temps would probably be the result of relatively brief cold/dry periods behind fronts after a storm passes.

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Well the gefs is hinting that by mid November the NAO is sinking into neutral territory. PNA is rising to neutral. And the AO is falling to neutral. That’s a look I’ll take my chances on.

 

A lot of our winter “engines” are in motion right now and that normally causes some concern. Wait it out a couple more weeks and everything will be MUCH clearer for December and I think many will be quite happy:wub:

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17 hours ago, BTRWx said:

Thanks!  I'll update the maps to show the arctic region.

eta: Do you have a monthly blend of that?

I know it has nothing to do with recent posts but wanted to tie this loose end up.

Levi responded to my email.  There is a monthly SSTA map on tropical tidbits under the Hurricane season Analog tab!

59f9bf531412f_monthlySST.png.03dc6e628aa838225c34ed7f89ef5432.png

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24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I know it has nothing to do with recent posts but wanted to tie this loose end up.

Levi responded to my email.  There is a monthly SSTA map on tropical tidbits under the Hurricane season Analog tab!

59f9bf531412f_monthlySST.png.03dc6e628aa838225c34ed7f89ef5432.png

Excellent!

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As Bob pointed out, the CanSIPS seem to do well at a one month lead, i.e. the current run is probably much closer to what will transpire over the next month. Combine that with the current/predicted AO state, and other guidance like the CFS (check out the weeklies), we are likely going to need some serious modification to the pattern as we head into December (again).

Yeah the October forecast from last month was a pretty good match. But anything after that initial month looks like the model reverts to heavily favoring climo, in this case a Nina climo. Which glancing back a couple months doesn't look like it has done that well. So Dec onward I would not be surprised whatsoever if we end up with a totally different look then is now being forecasted. 

Edit: Just wanted to add that I think this is why the Cansips did so well last year. The extended forecast heavily favored Nina climo throughout winter and that is how it played out. I really don't think we are seeing a typical Nina at this point so I have to question whether it will be playing catch up all winter where we can only rely on the initial month on each run.

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59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't have much value for 2m temps on super long range guidance. I only look at h5. The advertised mean pattern is not a good one for wintry weather in the MA. The "not as warm as expected" surface temps would probably be the result of relatively brief cold/dry periods behind fronts after a storm passes.

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

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14 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

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11 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

Verbatim, yes. Taking seasonal guidance at 2+ month leads is bad practice. However, the CanSips is doing very well with one month lead. It did very well all last winter and it's doing it again this fall. The d10-15 EPS looks just like the CanSips so there is some support already.

IF Nov features a strong positive AO like guidance is showing, expecting the same in December is a good call. Once a +AO establishes itself it's a good call to go with persistence until it flips in real time and not model land. We've seen that time and time again over the last 3-4 years. The GEFS sucks at d10-14. The AO is verifying well above ens mean guidance in general. Look at the 2 bottom graphs. It's like some sort of switch flipped on 10/1. 

ao.sprd2.gif

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

Heh, that's what I tried to post above but in many more words. I like your version better. We don't need a model to extrapolate the Nov panel. We already know how that rolls forward 8 times out of 10. 

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48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, that's what I tried to post above but in many more words. I like your version better. We don't need a model to extrapolate the Nov panel. We already know how that rolls forward 8 times out of 10. 

lol yes.

As for the AO, the last bullet point in the summary of Cohen's latest update pretty much says it all, especially considering his bias.

  • The stratospheric polar vortex (PV) looks to be normal to stronger than normal for much of November and this favors milder temperatures at least in the coming weeks and possibly longer.

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54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

You are assuming it is right. Don't tell me you aren't assuming anything.

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