Winter 2017-18 Disco

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mason Dixon said:

Now just last night you said you didn't like the signs. Now you say you do. Which is it???? 

UGH...  I don't flip around over a couple of model runs.  The longer term large scale indices are not great for this winter.  Nina, still not a great PDO signal even if not as bad as 30 days ago, not great long term trends in the AO/NAO, plenty of similar analogs that had below normal snowfall... The overall preponderance of evidence is not that positive.  I have said I am pessimistic about this winter, but I also do not think it is hopeless, there are enough outliers in the analogs to think things could break our way, but I wouldn't bet on it or forecast it either.

Now, in the short term I admitted the last 48 hours of model runs have been better and IF....big big IF, things were to continue to progress that way then perhaps I would feel better about the winter.  My post today was more speculative.  There are also some longer term trends that aren't awful like the PDO shifting a bit more favorably.  I could still see a way this winter breaks our way, even if I am not predicting that.  But my first point was that the people making wild swings from run to run of the models are going to go crazy by December.  And my second point was I do see the short term positive trends being pointed out but that I am waiting for more evidence before changing my mind about the overall outlook.  One was a larger scale macro statement and the other was a micro short term one. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

UGH...  I don't flip around over a couple of model runs.  The longer term large scale indices are not great for this winter.  Nina, still not a great PDO signal even if not as bad as 30 days ago, not great long term trends in the AO/NAO, plenty of similar analogs that had below normal snowfall... The overall preponderance of evidence is not that positive.  I have said I am pessimistic about this winter, but I also do not think it is hopeless, there are enough outliers in the analogs to think things could break our way, but I wouldn't bet on it or forecast it either.

Now, in the short term I admitted the last 48 hours of model runs have been better and IF....big big IF, things were to continue to progress that way then perhaps I would feel better about the winter.  My post today was more speculative.  There are also some longer term trends that aren't awful like the PDO shifting a bit more favorably.  I could still see a way this winter breaks our way, even if I am not predicting that.  But my first point was that the people making wild swings from run to run of the models are going to go crazy by December.  And my second point was I do see the short term positive trends being pointed out but that I am waiting for more evidence before changing my mind about the overall outlook.  One was a larger scale macro statement and the other was a micro short term one. 

That guy. Don't bother. 39 posts and zero worth a s. And he is from PA. He wont be posting here for long.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, Mason Dixon said:

Now just last night you said you didn't like the signs. Now you say you do. Which is it???? 

Dude, you need to give it a rest.  It's November 2.  You're going to be toast before winter even gets here.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

UGH...  I don't flip around over a couple of model runs.  The longer term large scale indices are not great for this winter.  Nina, still not a great PDO signal even if not as bad as 30 days ago, not great long term trends in the AO/NAO, plenty of similar analogs that had below normal snowfall... The overall preponderance of evidence is not that positive.  I have said I am pessimistic about this winter, but I also do not think it is hopeless, there are enough outliers in the analogs to think things could break our way, but I wouldn't bet on it or forecast it either.

Now, in the short term I admitted the last 48 hours of model runs have been better and IF....big big IF, things were to continue to progress that way then perhaps I would feel better about the winter.  My post today was more speculative.  There are also some longer term trends that aren't awful like the PDO shifting a bit more favorably.  I could still see a way this winter breaks our way, even if I am not predicting that.  But my first point was that the people making wild swings from run to run of the models are going to go crazy by December.  And my second point was I do see the short term positive trends being pointed out but that I am waiting for more evidence before changing my mind about the overall outlook.  One was a larger scale macro statement and the other was a micro short term one. 

Nice disco. Food for thought, just posted this over in the NYC forum, but if you look at the Atlantic, we are going into a classic negative AMO right now: -AMO: +AMO: 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This time is like when ice first freezes on a pond... to determine future thickness and depth. different days have different feelings, and there are model changes too. What looked like a +3AO in November, and raging Pacific is now having trouble establishing at all on models. A 15-day loop of the Northern Hempishere actually doesn't have a +NAO at all, and there is significant trend happening now, just saying, Atlantic hurricane season was pretty crazy. It's a time of some pretty cool happenings, I think. Hopefully you can see the difference between heart, which I call positiveintuition, and trolling. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nice disco. Food for thought, just posted this over in the NYC forum, but if you look at the Atlantic, we are going into a classic negative AMO right now: -AMO: +AMO: 

Not sure how significant it is. Amo seems neutral now. I do think it's flipping to negative in the long term overall. It's due. But some of our best Nina snow years were during negative or neutral AMO. 

[Bob Chill]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure how significant it is. Amo seems neutral now. I do think it's flipping to negative in the long term overall. It's due. But some of our best Nina snow years were during negative or neutral AMO. 

The AMO was more negative than it is right now the last 3 years at the beginning of Nov. The natl ssta structure looks less hostile so I see this as a net positive. Well, a net positive if you are hoping to have winter. Snowman shouldn't be happy about it though. 

[mitchnick]

QBO ticked down again for October at -16.79 from -15.28 in September. Negative QBO looks to be a lock for the winter.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

QBO ticked down again for October at -16.79 from -15.28 in September. Negative QBO looks to be a lock for the winter.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

At this point we don't want it to go any lower. An extremely negative qbo becomes less favorable for blocking. 

[Mason Dixon]

19 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That guy. Don't bother. 39 posts and zero worth a s. And he is from PA. He wont be posting here for long.

He offered up an good explanation. I was just wondering what his thoughts were because in less than 12 hours he was giving two different responses. Perhaps you should put me on ignore??? 

[Mason Dixon]

18 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Dude, you need to give it a rest.  It's November 2.  You're going to be toast before winter even gets here.

Ignore feature. Use it 

[mappy]

36 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

Ignore feature. Use it 

This is a warning to you to dial it back some and be a bit more civil in these threads. 

[Mason Dixon]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is a warning to you to dial it back some and be a bit more civil in these threads. 

Psu on Wednesday night said the signs looked bad regarding winter. Less than 12 hours later he makes a totally different post. I asked him to clarify his position . He responded with a very good explanation. However I get attacked by two posters and you tell me to be civil?? Lol.

[SnowLover22]

Psu on Wednesday night said the signs looked bad regarding winter. Less than 12 hours later he makes a totally different post. I asked him to clarify his position . He responded with a very good explanation. However I get attacked by two posters and you tell me to be civil?? Lol.

Your just digging yourself in a deeper hole.


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[yoda]

Excellent write-up... though we might not like it lol

[H2O]

26 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

Psu on Wednesday night said the signs looked bad regarding winter. Less than 12 hours later he makes a totally different post. I asked him to clarify his position . He responded with a very good explanation. However I get attacked by two posters and you tell me to be civil?? Lol.

your posting history has shown that you prefer to be abrasive and confrontational.  That won't help your case.  We are politely asking you to dial it back with how you choose to discuss things.  Thats all.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS just insists on smothering the high latitudes with HP. Run after run. 12z GFS parked a 1050hp over GL for a time as well. I posted in Grit's thread in the SE earlier today about this. I was skeptical of the GFS/GEFS but the EPS is now starting to show expansive HP in the same general areas now. Not to the level of the GEFS but the lr progs look absolutely nothing like the CanSips mean for Nov. 

 

 

 

 

When is the last time we've seen 1050+hp over GL inside of 10 days? lol

 

 

 

We have some consensus but the range is still way out there. I could care less what the sensible wx is in my yard right now if these pressure panels showing up over and over verify. I'm not as nervous as I was a week ago. 

[Mason Dixon]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

your posting history has shown that you prefer to be abrasive and confrontational.  That won't help your case.  We are politely asking you to dial it back with how you choose to discuss things.  Thats all.

Ok 

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS just insists on smothering the high latitudes with HP. Run after run. 12z GFS parked a 1050hp over GL for a time as well. I posted in Grit's thread in the SE earlier today about this. I was skeptical of the GFS/GEFS but the EPS is now starting to show expansive HP in the same general areas now. Not to the level of the GEFS but the lr progs look absolutely nothing like the CanSips mean for Nov. 

 

 

 

 

When is the last time we've seen 1050+hp over GL inside of 10 days? lol

 

 

 

We have some consensus but the range is still way out there. I could care less what the sensible wx is in my yard right now if these pressure panels showing up over and over verify. I'm not as nervous as I was a week ago. 

I'm keying on and liking the red/yellows/browns over Alaska and the blues over Japan on that Euro Ensemble mean map. As long as they keep showing up, we'll eventually be in business.

[Eduardo]

I'd trade warmth for a -AO. Euro is showing a west ridge/east trough but the high latitudes are pretty gross. Copious low pressure all over where we want high pressure. I'm not liking November. 

 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS just insists on smothering the high latitudes with HP. Run after run. 12z GFS parked a 1050hp over GL for a time as well. I posted in Grit's thread in the SE earlier today about this. I was skeptical of the GFS/GEFS but the EPS is now starting to show expansive HP in the same general areas now. Not to the level of the GEFS but the lr progs look absolutely nothing like the CanSips mean for Nov. 

 

 

 

 

When is the last time we've seen 1050+hp over GL inside of 10 days? lol

 

 

 

We have some consensus but the range is still way out there. I could care less what the sensible wx is in my yard right now if these pressure panels showing up over and over verify. I'm not as nervous as I was a week ago. 

A comparison of these two posts (the first from the November thread) teaches a perfect lesson regarding the perils of living and dying with each individual op/ensemble run.  Of course, this was not at all the thrust of your analysis, which is always balanced.  But it's a good illustration for many (myself included) that there is much more to this craft than monitoring the ever-shifting ugly and pretty colors depicted in the med/long range.

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

A comparison of these two posts (the first from the November thread) teaches a perfect lesson regarding the perils of living and dying with each individual op/ensemble run.  Of course, this was not at all the thrust of your analysis, which is always balanced.  But it's a good illustration for many (myself included) that there is much more to this craft than monitoring the ever-shifting ugly and pretty colors depicted in the med/long range.

November is the hardest month on the nerves and mind. Head fakes are common but eventually some of the personality of winter does come into focus. Usually by the holiday.

 The only areas I pay much attention to are the npac and high latitudes. Mid latitude continental weather doesn't matter much. Meaning it can be warm all month in my yard and I wouldn't care as long as the bigger picture looks ok. 

I'm just glad we're seeing some conflicting signals irt pressure patterns around the pole. I won't lie. CanSips spooked me a little. I'm looking for any legit signs that it's going be wrong. The stuff I posted earlier today looks good but it's too far away to really take seriously. If we can close a week in time and hold the look then it's safe to say the CanSips and CFS are going to be wrong for Nov. 

[SnowLover22]

Looks like a 1066+ this run..da*n

Such thing as too much of a good thing?


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[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Never

Especially with high latitude blocking

Yea, could care less that it might be "wasted" because it's a month early. I'd much rather track how long it holds instead when is it ever coming. Lol

Gfs/gefs are being consistent with legit blocking but too far out to bite. At least we can track it and see if time closes or gets pushed. 

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, could care less that it might be "wasted" because it's a month early. I'd much rather track how long it holds instead when is it ever coming. Lol

Gfs/gefs are being consistent with legit blocking but too far out to bite. At least we can track it and see if time closes or gets pushed. 

Yeah I will remain skeptical for now. Would like to see some indications on other guidance, but right now there is none lol. Not really seeing it on the EPS during that timeframe(day 14-15) although the general h5 look is otherwise similar to the GEFS (especially the NPac).

[CAPE]

The 18z GEFS has a pretty legit east-based blocky look at the end of it's run, with a ridge just poking NW into GL. During the same time frame, the 12z EPS has a weak trough in that area, and pretty neutral h5 height anomalies around GL. All in all not a huge difference for 2+ weeks out.

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I will remain skeptical for now. Would like to see some indications on other guidance, but right now there is none lol. Not really seeing it on the EPS during that timeframe(day 14-15) although the general h5 look is otherwise similar to the GEFS (especially the NPac).

The eps has definitely trended better with MSLP panels. Go back 5+ runs and look at the mslp panels. Low pressure surrounding GL. Steady trend towards +hp anoms in the ao/nao domains the last few runs. Gefs is obviously preferable...lol...but all in all things are breaking the right way for now. 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The eps has definitely trended better with MSLP panels. Go back 5+ runs and look at the mslp panels. Low pressure surrounding GL. Steady trend towards +hp anoms in the ao/nao domains the last few runs. Gefs is obviously preferable...lol...but all in all things are breaking the right way for now. 

 

Agreed in general. Need to see another run or 2 on the EPS to see if the trend is real. I think you know me- I basically only look at h5 at range lol. But it seems to be going in the right direction for now yes.

[Rtd208]

Not necessarily a big ticket winter but not bad either.

https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook

[CAPE]

Looking at the 0z EPS, it now has impressive h5 +height anomalies and a pronounced ridge near Barents Sea/Scandinavian region, and building into Greenland at the end of the run. The biggest +height anomalies on previous runs were over Siberia. For now, the general look up top continues to evolve in a more favorable direction on LR guidance.

[mitchnick]

Anyone notice the CFS2 lately for December?  Slight changes.  Lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017110412&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0