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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208
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43 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Great visible loop with snowcover 

 

 

 

Incredible shot! You can actually see the snowline slowly receding back north. Given the long range forecast, doesn't look like the arctic will be making anymore advances to most of the northeast until next fall/winter.

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Another snow eating day, 44F.  The nice thing is that we didn't get any heavy rain to go along with these warm sunny days.  By the time we have a chance for rain, most of the snow will be gone for many of us, especially after the next couple of days.

We have been lucky in recent years that we haven't seen a big flood cutter following our KU snowstorms like we did in January 1996. I had to drive home during that January 96 downpour and the streets turned into rivers with snow piles covering all the drains. The worst recent flooding was during the warm up in March 15 on a mild sunny day.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/03/11/rapid-snow-melt-leaves-homes-flooded-on-long-island/

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been lucky in recent years that we haven't seen a big flood cutter following our KU snowstorms like we did in January 1996. I had to drive home during that January 96 downpour and the streets turned into rivers with snow piles covering all the drains. The worst recent flooding was during the warm up in March 15 on a mild sunny day.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/03/11/rapid-snow-melt-leaves-homes-flooded-on-long-island/

I agree.  This year, by the time we get any rain, most of the snow will be gone.

Nice link as well.  I remember in March '15 how warm it got.  Rapid melting, and most folks in the community thought we finally turned the corner and Spring was on the way. Snow was melting off the roof like crazy, nearly overflowing the gutters.  Little did we know, on March 20th, four more inches would fall.

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3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes, temps in the mid to upper 30's for both days with nights in upper teens to low 20's.... which is very cold when temps are supposed to be in the low 50's now.

My forecast has 38/22 Wednesday and 40/31 Thursday for the two days. Could be colder if the Euro verifies. Definitely chilly for late March, keeping winter jacket out.

Walking through Claremont Park in the Bronx and still full snow cover.

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have been lucky in recent years that we haven't seen a big flood cutter following our KU snowstorms like we did in January 1996. I had to drive home during that January 96 downpour and the streets turned into rivers with snow piles covering all the drains. The worst recent flooding was during the warm up in March 15 on a mild sunny day.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/03/11/rapid-snow-melt-leaves-homes-flooded-on-long-island/

It was worth it to get that amazingly long snow season going all the way into April.  1995-96 and 2002-03 have been our only "old style" classic October-April snow seasons.  Even in this era of above normal snowfall, outside of those two seasons, most of the snow has been confined to a couple of months.

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18 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I havent looked at the numbers but this lack of a -NAO has to now be up there with that stretch from 1988-1993.  That one was probably a result of the colder AMO, not exactly sure what the reason for this one is but I suspect something with the SSTs although the I cause is probably indirect 

snowfall has been a lot better than that era though

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17 hours ago, uncle W said:

before 1950 there were about ten months that had 25" of snow or more for 80 years...from 1950 to 1990 there were none...there are 8 so far since 1990...

What about 30" I remember that NYC only had one 30" month all the way up until this century- and that was in March.

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18 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I don't think the 2009-2010 pattern will ever be repeated in my lifetime. Strong negative AO and very warm Pacific. I was home sick from school (U of Maryland) in Ellicott City, just W of Baltimore, for the back-to-back blizzards in early Feb. Best week of my life (not to mention wee'd had the December Miller A blizz already). I know it might be blasphemous to talk about up in these parts, but that block during Feb. 5-6 was pure bliss to see in a place where I experienced so much heartbreak from a lifetime of battling marginal temps and Miller B's jumping the coast. We got almost 32 inches in Ellicott City and then another 15 during that Feb 9-10 blizzard that looked like a napalm hose on radar. A pattern that executes to perfection is once in a lifetime. 

napalm huh- I don't think you want to be near that stuff

How much did you get in that month? over 50"? how does it compare to 2002-03?  February 2003 was a big month too.

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19 hours ago, uncle W said:

the warm Atlantic near the coast helps...any cold air has that to tap into if there is a storm near by...

Exactly, that is why we've been getting these big snowstorms even in mild patterns.  You just need cold air nearby for it to deliver.

Big December snowstorms- reminds me of Dec 1995, 2003, 2009, 2010......we've had quite a few but no huge ones since 2010.  Lately most of our snow seasons have been starting after Jan 20.

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23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Looks great! Fitting since tomorrow is the first day of astronomical spring. Looking forward to the warm weather starting next weekend. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing!

Spring is boring, hopefully it goes over to summer rather quickly :)

I wasn't too far off with my prediction of the last snowstorm being around March 13th and the warm up after March 22nd from a month ago haha.

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I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning even with frigid overnight temps near 10 the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 22 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day the snow pack Thursday (16th) morning was 18.8. Probably more compression than anything.

After a high of 35 Thursday the snow pack Friday (17th) morning was 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is down to 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday with clouds and snow showers most of the day the snow pack is 15.1 inches Sunday (19th) morning.

After a high of 44 Sunday with sun most of the day the snow pack is 12.6 inches Monday (20th) morning.

To be continued tomorrow morning.

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Looks like March will end BN by 3.6degs.

So far:    (-4 2 x19) + (-4x8) = -112/27 = -4.1 estimated by the 28th.   Making the last  4 days normal, -112/31 = -3.6.

So analogs blew it big time, even with zero lead time.  I, for one, will want to see these analogs get the next month right before I can trust them again.   They are still AN every month for the next 12 nearly everywhere in the lower 48.

Guess the whole world will burn, with the El Nino that seems on the way.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Looks like it could be a significant event for the interior regions of the Northeast f the Euro is close on the overrunning potential. We'll see what things look like once we get under 120 hrs. 

 

ecmwf_ptype_a_neng_34.thumb.png.ca5a3d4f151ca639162b37e1d63256ed.png

 

 

 

 

The GFS has it too, but seems like a fragile setup.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Looks like March will end BN by 3.6degs.

So far:    (-4 2 x19) + (-4x8) = -112/27 = -4.1 estimated by the 28th.   Making the last  4 days normal, -112/31 = -3.6.

So analogs blew it big time, even with zero lead time.  I, for one, will want to see these analogs get the next month right before I can trust them again.   They are still AN every month for the next 12 nearly everywhere in the lower 48.

Guess the whole world will burn, with the El Nino that seems on the way.

what analogs were used?...

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50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More like central New England north now. Once you get to the 20th, even southern New England is out of the game minus a freak spring event

I strongly disagree with that. Beginning with the Easter 1970 storm I've seen many 1 foot plus storm in the HV after March 20th.

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