Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Congrats Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 We are very unlikely to miss snow in March to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Haha wow the euro is suppressed. Richmond is snow city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Big snow event for much of NC and S VA this run. Now I am really interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 That is a massive dome of cold over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are very unlikely to miss snow in March to the south. Possible but I doubt it. The EPS should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I'm going with a blend of the gfs and euro with a side order of the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: We have seen this play out before....the models in the 6-9 day period make us mildly interested and then in the 3-4 day period it trends north. Ill call it now, congrats Harrisburg to Binghamton I'm not sure this year you can say that. Harrisburg has had next to nothing this year. The very few times we got into the day 7 range with a real threat one trended south and 2 completely suppressed/sheared out and I can think of one that went north. This year just getting anything even close to us has been the problem. It's been an "interior" winter as in interior Quebec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 LOL....Euro being the Euro. Still a little out of range for specifics. A lot of these suppressed solutions at day 6+ come north...but not always. Long week ahead. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 That is a mighty big shift in one op run. Shows the volatility and the potential. I would love for the next weekend deal to become a legit threat. We desperately need something inside of 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm going with a blend of the gfs and euro with a side order of the cmc. A blend of the two would probably be pretty sweet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm going with a blend of the gfs and euro with a side order of the cmc. It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent? peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is a mighty big shift in one op run. Shows the volatility and the potential. I would love for the next weekend deal to become a legit threat. We desperately need something inside of 7 days. Those differences between models and between runs all revolve around whether that hammer of cold moves south. GFS not enough, Euro too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 It's already full on spring there that solution would be nuts for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent? peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. I want the 38" the Euro gave me yesterday. Normally I would curse snow that big but in March it would be something to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those differences between models and between runs all revolve around whether that hammer of cold moves south. GFS not enough, Euro too much. Given its March, and the Pacific is crapola, I am thrilled to see an op run drive the cold that far south. The blocking on the NA side looks legit. Lets hope so, because the Bering Strait monster certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent? peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol Good post. it seems like All the major models are moving in this direction. I am excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are very unlikely to miss snow in March to the south. Let's bet. This is the year it would happen. If I'm in South VA, I'm pretty happy right now. Normally, I'd be dreading the trend north, but we thought that about the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol Yea we have as much chance as anyone with the day 7 gradient system. After that I envision several systems over the day 10-16 period any of which could stay under us and yes we're fighting climo more but if it's going to snow mid march getting the cold on our side with blocking is how to do it. I see multiple chances here. All low probability but decent when calculating odd one clips us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 I am not saying we can't miss south. We could. But until we're inside 100 hours and unless other guidance goes that way I am not worried about that yet. No more then it going north. Still way too far out to be overly concerned with one op run. Especially when the other major tool used it the opposite way and historically a compromise is best when they diverge. Let's see what the EPS does in an hour. It's march 5 and we're talking about legit threats. I'm scoring today as a win so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Let's bet. This is the year it would happen. If I'm in South VA, I'm pretty happy right now. Normally, I'd be dreading the trend north, but we thought that about the last storm. I forget the year, but there was a 1-2 foot snowstorm in NC in mid March some years back. It does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I forget the year, but there was a 1-2 foot snowstorm in NC in mid March some years back. It does happen. Besides a storm can get suppressed south by the flow even if it's too late to get snow down there due to boundary level temps. They would just get rain. But even in the summer things can get suppressed. That argument is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I forget the year, but there was a 1-2 foot snowstorm in NC in mid March some years back. It does happen. 93'...... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Besides a storm can get suppressed south by the flow even if it's too late to get snow down there due to boundary level temps. They would just get rain. But even in the summer things can get suppressed. That argument is silly. True. I highly doubt this ends up being suppressed unless it completely dampens and gets crushed to nothing. If there is to be a wintery storm in a gradient pattern based on the advertised large scale pattern, and factoring in climo, I think our general region and especially points north are favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: 93'...... Nut lol no It was a suppressed event. Got as far north as Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 EPS looking pretty good for d7-8. A few misses south and north but the majority of snow producers put us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looking pretty good for d7-8. A few misses south and north but the majority of snow producers put us in the game. Yup was just going to post this. Some spread as expected but overall the EPS looks pretty good for our region next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup was just going to post this. Some spread as expected but overall the EPS looks pretty good for our region next Sunday. Yea, the mean is a MA special too so DC/Balt is dead center of the various tracks for the members that snow on the region. Couple nice hits in there too. Best d7 run of the EPS in a very long time. I can't even remember the last one that was better. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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