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March medium/long range disco

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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Between all the walking yesterday in DC and still feeling the effects from the flu several weeks ago, where my energy levels are at 50%, I really didn't have the energy to look to hard into the overnight runs of the models. 

But after a quick glance at the 00Z GEFS I did note a couple of things. We are seeing somewhat better ridging (compared to the 12Z) developing over top in the arctic regions through day 10 which in turn is forcing the pv farther south through that period. Higher heights in the east are breaking down much quicker then previous runs. We also are seeing a window of opportunity presenting itself roughly centered on day 10 as well as another one roughly centered on day 14. Snowfall mean has improved over the 18Z run but is somewhat comparable through the dc/balt corridor to the 12Z run though it has improved into western and central Va as well as well towards the eastern portions of MD. 

The 00Z EPS also has a little better ridging over the top as well as a displacement of the pv a little farther south through the nearer term. Better signal from previous runs for a storm centered around day 10 as well as a weaker signal for around day 14. Snowfall mean through the region has ticked up between an half inch to in some cases an inch. Control run is a fun run for the region, especially southern regions where we see close to a foot and a half in some sections , though PSU gets fringed with only 6-7 inches. :) Roughly 2/3 of the members get measurable snow in at least a potion of the region with quite a few heavy hitters in that mix.

All in all the overnight runs were a positive.

 

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41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Between all the walking yesterday in DC and still feeling the effects from the flu several weeks ago, where my energy levels are at 50%, I really didn't have the energy to look to hard into the overnight runs of the models. 

But after a quick glance at the 00Z GEFS I did note a couple of things. We are seeing somewhat better ridging (compared to the 12Z) developing over top in the arctic regions through day 10 which in turn is forcing the pv farther south through that period. Higher heights in the east are breaking down much quicker then previous runs. We also are seeing a window of opportunity presenting itself roughly centered on day 10 as well as another one roughly centered on day 14. Snowfall mean has improved over the 18Z run but is somewhat comparable through the dc/balt corridor to the 12Z run though it has improved into western and central Va as well as well towards the eastern portions of MD. 

The 00Z EPS also has a little better ridging over the top as well as a displacement of the pv a little farther south through the nearer term. Better signal from previous runs for a storm centered around day 10 as well as a weaker signal for around day 14. Snowfall mean through the region has ticked up between an half inch to in some cases an inch. Control run is a fun run for the region, especially southern regions where we see close to a foot and a half in some sections , though PSU gets fringed with only 6-7 inches. :) Roughly 2/3 of the members get measurable snow in at least a potion of the region with quite a few heavy hitters in that mix.

All in all the overnight runs were a positive.

 

Agreed good 0z runs.

EPS has the look of a gradient pattern prior to day 10, which may be something to keep an eye on, and then it ultimately gets a trough in the east around day 10. GEFS keeps more ridging along the east coast then brings the trough in day 10 forward. Just looked at the 6z GEFS and its perhaps a bit more impressive with the cold look right up until the end of the run. Builds a nice Davis Strait block day 15-16. Storm chances sprinkled in, especially days 10-15 and the snowfall mean ticks up during that time.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed good 0z runs.

EPS has the look of a gradient pattern which may be something to keep an eye on, and then it ultimately gets a trough in the east around day 10. GEFS keeps more ridging along the east coast then brings the trough in day 10 forward. Just looked at the 6z GEFS and its perhaps a bit more impressive with the cold look right up until the end of the run. Builds a nice Davis Strait block day 15-16. Storm chances sprinkled in, especially days 10-15 and the snowfall mean ticks up during that time.

Not a big fan of the off runs of the GFS but I did like seeing that the GEFS has a stronger signal for around day 10 and a much stronger signal for around day 14. Still not as concerned about the finer details of the waves and their placement through the CONUS at range in a somewhat volatile setup as I am about what is happening up top but it is nice to see nevertheless. 

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5 hours ago, chris624wx said:

Looks like 00z Euro found the d8-9 storm again. Definitely not as impressive as yesterday's 00z Euro run but nice, especially as you get closer to the Pennsylvania line. Decent event for the cities.  

Its actually day 7-8 and it looks like an overrunning event with cold pressing down in a n-s temp gradient. EPS has that general look also. I am personally rooting for that type of evolution- could produce a nice moderate event, and its inside of 10 days.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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Just looking at the snowfall means for the 06Z GEFS and there has been a significant spike. Whereas we were seeing the 3 inch line running roughly through the cities at 00z it now has the 6 inch line within spitting distant to the north and west. Looks as if we are seeing a spike roughly around day 6/7 and day 10/11 through day 16 shows a continuous increase. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Just looking at the snowfall means for the 06Z GEFS and there has been a significant spike. Whereas we were seeing the 3 inch line running roughly through the cities at 00z it now has the 6 inch line within spitting distant to the north and west. Looks as if we are seeing a spike roughly around day 6/7 and day 10/11 through day 16 shows a continuous increase. 

Yes.

Bigger fan of the off run now? :P

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Euro/EPS is back to the colder look for late next weekend. The 0z op had a 4-8" event for much of MD and southern PA verbatim, and there are about 10 EPS members with a light to moderate event next Sunday. As advertised its a gradient pattern with a High pressing down, so a bit tricky pinning down cold/location of precip and snow/mix/rain. Also worth noting that the GEFS still has the MA very mild under an east coast ridge at that time. Something to keep an eye on and its only 7 days out.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Didn't get home until almost midnight and had to be back at work 7am today so not much time to do any deep analysis. I may post this afternoon when I'm home if I have any energy left. 

From my glance (really just a glance) at all the guidance, I agree it was a definite positive trend overnight in everything. Couple quick thoughts. The day 7-8 threat is something coming across riding the boundary. The aleutian ridge is going to prevent anything from digging too much into the east but the ridging around Greenland and the lower heights around 50/50 also will depress the pattern and prevent anything from cutting too much either.  Also there is a lot of cold so just seeing red on the h5 doesn't mean warm. The boundary could sink a bit at times. So something could get under us. It's trending better. 

The day 10-15 period is based on the Greenland block holding as the aleutian block retrogrades and weakens. If that happens it opens the door to a major amplification of the trough into the east. Holy god are there some crazy solutions in the ensembles there. That's too far out to worry about details but the signal is consistently showing up. 

Finally, we saw a real uptick in snow mean last night. That is what we should continue to see if the signal is real as we get closer.  A mean stating flat is a loss because often that is simply a signal weakening being offset by new fake signals in the long range. Also as we get closer a mean of only an inch or two is a false positive as it's often from outliers and the snow area coverage will tighten up and you will end up on the outside.  Seeing the gefs jump up near 6" was a good thing. Seeing continued incremental increase is a must. 

Lucy is sure polishing that football and making it look purty lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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All we need for the d7-8 deal to do something is for SLP to pass south. It's a textbook W-E tracking gradient storm with a lot of sprawling cold to the north. My money is on PA or north but it would be a cold snowstorm even for us if SLP actually passes south before exiting the coast. There more than ample cold to tap. If it passes N then we could be in the 60's with showers while just 50-100 miles north would be below freezing and snowing.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

All we need for the d7-8 deal to do something is for SLP to pass south. It's a textbook W-E tracking gradient storm with a lot of sprawling cold to the north. My money is on PA or north but it would be a cold snowstorm even for us if SLP actually passes south before exiting the coast. There more than ample cold to tap. If it passes N then we could be in the 60's with showers while just 50-100 miles north would be below freezing and snowing.  

Probably favors areas from N PA into SNE. Interesting set up with an active jet, w-e with a hell of a n-s temp gradient. There is plenty of cold poised just north, and the euro op got it done for our general area with a pretty nice vort pass and cold pressing down. Was also nice to see some eps members had something too. I am officially interested, at least until the 12z Euro goes back to showing 60s for next Sunday.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably favors areas from N PA into SNE. Interesting set up with an active jet, w-e with a hell of a n-s temp gradient. There is plenty of cold poised just north, and the euro op got it done for our general area with a pretty nice vort pass and cold pressing down. Was also nice to see some eps members had something too. I am officially interested, at least until the 12z Euro goes back to showing 60s for next Sunday.

Not sure how I feel about that period yet. I am kind of the opinion that it will be dependent on how far south we initially see the pv forced. The farther south we see that the farther south we should see the flow and along with it the boundary. Never know, it might be a nice appetizer to the 2-3 foot snow we see a couple of days later. :) 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not sure how I feel about that period yet. I am kind of the opinion that it will be dependent on how far south we initially see the pv forced. The farther south we see that the farther south we should see the flow and along with it the boundary. Never know, it might be a nice appetizer to the 2-3 foot snow we see a couple of days later. :) 

This window has been sort of hiding in the guidance. Mostly its been the Euro hinting at something. Hopefully over the next few runs we see the Euro keep the general idea, and the GFS get on board. Be nice to have a legit trackable threat inside of 7 days, rather than have to keep waiting on the day 10-15 window, hoping it doesn't slide further into the future(Spring), or disintegrate altogether.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could be wrong, but the 12z GFS seems to have taken a step towards a more Euro like solution.

I actually thought the 00Z GFS suite started going towards the Euro.

Edit: In regards to the key features at 500mb. No idea as far as the surface because I only did a quick glance there.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Quick break to look at gefs. About the same for the day 7 threat. Snow mean increased just to our north but decreased slightly for DC and Balt due to the tightening I said would happen. Unfortunately that tightening happened right along the mason Dixon line with snow decreasing south and increasing north. But that's close enough and the trend lately has been south. 

Gefs looks even better day 10-16. It's retrograding the pacific features enough to get the trough in western Canada west into the PAC allowing enough pna ridge to dump the trough whole hog into the east around day 10. Then there are threats littered throughout the rest of the run with cold pretty much dominant day 10 on. 

Both threats still there not on gefs at least the second still looks better. But the first is close and at a range where the 75 mile south nudge we need isn't out of the question. Actually I would argue the boundary is likely to shift that much at least from this range only it could shift north just as easily as south. We will see. 

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Quick break to look at gefs. About the same for the day 7 threat. Snow mean increased just to our north but decreased slightly for DC and Balt due to the tightening I said would happen. Unfortunately that tightening happened right along the mason Dixon line with snow decreasing south and increasing north. But that's close enough and the trend lately has been south. 

Gefs looks even better day 10-16. It's retrograding the pacific features enough to get the trough in western Canada west into the PAC allowing enough pna ridge to dump the trough whole hog into the east around day 10. Then there are threats littered throughout the rest of the run with cold pretty much dominant day 10 on. 

Both threats still there not on gefs at least the second still looks better. But the first is close and at a range where the 75 mile south nudge we need isn't out of the question. Actually I would argue the boundary is likely to shift that much at least from this range only it could shift north just as easily as south. We will see. 

We have seen this play out before....the models in the 6-9 day period make us mildly interested and then in the 3-4 day period it trends north. Ill call it now, congrats Harrisburg to Binghamton

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