Hazey Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Use protection... Only way to ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 I wonder what scale and degree of banality weather over time finally stops the forum from ever being used... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder what scale and degree of banality weather over time finally stops the forum from ever being used... heh Why do use the word banal so much in posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why do use the word banal so much in posts? ...outfit that sentence with any adjective you like... why do you post sentence that like, "Why do use the word banal so much in posts?" this is a weather forum - not whatever you fantasize of it's use (to which we all suffer...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder what scale and degree of banality weather over time finally stops the forum from ever being used... heh I wonder if there's a San Diego weather forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 RAP has some pretty good squalls moving through NH and MA later today. HRRR likes it too...but extends the squalls even further south into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I wonder if there's a San Diego weather forum? haha, zactly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP has some pretty good squalls moving through NH and MA later today. HRRR likes it too...but extends the squalls even further south into CT. sat has what appears to be a meso-beta scale circulation sooner entering NYS from western Ontario - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: sat has what appears to be a meso-beta scale circulation sooner entering NYS from western Ontario - I mentioned that in the banter thread. Whoever gets in on that will get a quick dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP has some pretty good squalls moving through NH and MA later today. HRRR likes it too...but extends the squalls even further south into CT. Windsexy afternoon and night, lots of peeps on the roads Friday nights, hope there are no major crashes. That one in Syracuse yesterday on 80 was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Windsexy afternoon and night, lots of peeps on the roads Friday nights, hope there are no major crashes. That one in Syracuse yesterday on 80 was ugly All the old school windex requirements are checked off in this event: 1. Unstable low levels (check...we have about 14C between T1 and T5 using old FOUS technique) 2. Good lift (check...LI spike of 12 in 12 hours...or just look for omega in a sounding and we have that too) 3. LL moisture (check...greater than 50% in BL....however, not by much, so this is the one factor that would bother me a little) 4. Good PVA/sfc front convergence (check...PVA isn't amazing, but made up for in excellent LL sfc features...almost a mesolow) If the boundary layer RH was higher, I'd probably be balls to wall in forecasting Kevin amounts...widespread 1-3 probably. But we're lacking just a bit in that department, so we'll probably be a bit limited. Should be some good squalls, and someone will get lucky (NH looks best if I had to guess), but there could be some gaps where it's just a few snow showers with little or no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All the old school windex requirements are checked off in this event: 1. Unstable low levels (check...we have about 14C between T1 and T5 using old FOUS technique) 2. Good lift (check...LI spike of 12 in 12 hours...or just look for omega in a sounding and we have that too) 3. LL moisture (check...greater than 50% in BL....however, not by much, so this is the one factor that would bother me a little) 4. Good PVA/sfc front convergence (check...PVA isn't amazing, but made up for in excellent LL sfc features...almost a mesolow) If the boundary layer RH was higher, I'd probably be balls to wall in forecasting Kevin amounts...widespread 1-3 probably. But we're lacking just a bit in that department, so we'll probably be a bit limited. Should be some good squalls, and someone will get lucky (NH looks best if I had to guess), but there could be some gaps where it's just a few snow showers with little or no accumulation. That is exactly what I will verify with. Good luck in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 How was the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How was the 12z GFS? Looks torchy starting around next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Looks torchy starting around next weekend. A clipper and possible front ender before that though. Lots of cold to the north though. If we can just stay on the cold enough side of things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Lurking boundary on 12z GFS leading up to St Paddy's day. Active overall look. Looks potentially snowy to me. Also features a clipper deal on 3/10-3/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I miss March 2013. Bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I miss March 2013. Bring it back. If it can't snow.. let's get Morch 2012. Nobody wants tomorrow with no pack to protect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it can't snow.. let's get Morch 2012. Nobody wants tomorrow with no pack to protect There is zero chance for Morch 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is zero chance for Morch 2012. Obviously.. but the point was if there's no chances of snow.. let's just get into 60's and 70's everyday like the last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Obviously.. but the point was if there's no chances of snow.. let's just get into 60's and 70's everyday like the last week Yes, but that isn't going to happen outside of a brief spike from a cutter...so it's kind of pointless to lament over it in the model thread. There is still a chance of getting a good snow event in the pattern shown, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder what scale and degree of banality weather over time finally stops the forum from ever being used... heh Six straight months of November would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: All the old school windex requirements are checked off in this event: 1. Unstable low levels (check...we have about 14C between T1 and T5 using old FOUS technique) 2. Good lift (check...LI spike of 12 in 12 hours...or just look for omega in a sounding and we have that too) 3. LL moisture (check...greater than 50% in BL....however, not by much, so this is the one factor that would bother me a little) 4. Good PVA/sfc front convergence (check...PVA isn't amazing, but made up for in excellent LL sfc features...almost a mesolow) If the boundary layer RH was higher, I'd probably be balls to wall in forecasting Kevin amounts...widespread 1-3 probably. But we're lacking just a bit in that department, so we'll probably be a bit limited. Should be some good squalls, and someone will get lucky (NH looks best if I had to guess), but there could be some gaps where it's just a few snow showers with little or no accumulation. Echoing 40/70, that's been the dtory for wherever I've lived since moving out of Ft. Kent (where we'd get 1-3 squalls/winter) in 1985. The one exception was Jan. 28, 2010, and since that 30 minutes of fun marked the end of winter, I don't like the precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Six straight months of November would do it. September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 My very amateur eyes like the look from and of next week into late March . Sure there might be some torch days but I think the interior has decenta shot at one more warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Echoing 40/70, that's been the dtory for wherever I've lived since moving out of Ft. Kent (where we'd get 1-3 squalls/winter) in 1985. The one exception was Jan. 28, 2010, and since that 30 minutes of fun marked the end of winter, I don't like the precedent. Today is actually the 21 year anniversary of a good windex event on 3/3/96....I remember we had good snow squalls for a couple hours that morning culminating in a rapid temp drop after the final (and most intense) squall came through. It was impressive to see the temp drop in March like that. We ended up with a couple inches on top of the 7" that fell the previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: September. You are right, because there is no chance of snow in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 "Some torch days" are appreciated at this point....the pack period is over in sne...be warm when it isn't snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You are right, because there is no chance of snow in September. September is the one month, aside from the 1/80 year worthwhile tropical event, that has zero redeeming meteorological quality around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I recall a squall event maybe 4-6 years ago that had TSSN and dropped 2-4" inches over a decent area of SNE.. not sure of the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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