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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The example I keep using is for a warm layer of +1C. The Kuchera method if your max temp aloft is warmer than -2C would say your ratio is 12 + 2*(271.16-MaxTemp)

Now a +1C warm layer is most likely sleet. But Kuchera would say 12 + 2*(-3) = 6:1. That's pretty damn high for a sleet ratio.

So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better?

As in this event?

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better?

As in this event?

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

Cobb and Kuchera are what I have been using for years and blended have had pretry good results, both are showing on average a 14 or 15 to 1 overall ratio.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cobb and Kuchera are what I have been using for years and blended have had pretry good results, both are showing on average a 14 or 15 to 1 overall ratio.

Cobb is probably the best of the bunch, seeing as it factors in temps, lift, and RH to an extent.

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40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. 

Oh, yes....SGZ needs to be fully saturated, and between roughly -16-20C....

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Im not a stud with soundings yet so correct me if im wrong..Drool worthy ?

 

IMG_2237.PNG

Yes, that is really good...you have the max omega lining up with the optimal snow growth temps. Classic "Cross hair sig"...you also have an isothermal layer near -10C, which is on the warmer edge of the good snow growth range...so thats good too.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, that is really good...you have the max omega lining up with the optimal snow growth temps. Classic "Cross hair sig"...you also have an isothermal layer near -10C, which is on the warmer edge of the good snow growth range...so thats good too.

Cool, thanks. I have a few sites been taking notes from, so now I'm quizzing myself. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought that too. Looked like a great hit.

Yeah I was pretty pleased with that run. There's almost a spurious piece of vorticity that strengthens out ahead of the main show around 30 hours. Not sure if that's real or not...if it isn't, then this would be tucked even closer.

 

Either way, that has the look of a pretty major hit for at least the eastern 2/3rds of the region.

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