NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: It would increase the chance for rain. Maybe for the city, it's better for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is a lot slower this run. No precip even in the area on Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12km is weaker by 2mb when the storm is forming in Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NAM is a lot slower this run. No precip even in the area on Wednesday evening. That gives more time for cold to get in right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The NAM is going to be an interior bomb. Looks warm for the coast, at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nevermimd, the dynamics are so strong on the NAM that it quickly cools the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 We literally just got NAM'ed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 991mb tucked into the coast. Dry slot close to NYC. NW JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: We literally just got NAM'ed! Only issue is that the dry slot comes fast for the immediate coast. All areas are around an inch LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Only issue is that the dry slot comes fast for the immediate coast. All areas are around an inch LE. So even if we subtract for a little rain at the outset we R looking at 6 to 10 on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Only issue is that the dry slot comes fast for the immediate coast. All areas are around an inch LE. The slower the system, the more cold air is able to seep into the area, correct? This probably explains the lower temperatures of the slower run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Absolute crusher. Rates through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM has a foot+ from NW NJ up to Maine. Interior NE is 12-24". NYC proper is around 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Let's see if the other models trend NW. NAM sticking with its Feb 2001 redux. My "expectation" where I am is a few inches of slop after rain, if we can see more than this, awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nam might be too amped Lets see the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 That's a juicy nam run..don't the more intense storms tend to hug the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Jeeez the NAM is a crush job for the interior.. it's had the hot hand so far hopefully it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Isn't the NAM notorious for overdoing precip? Either way, excited there's something to look forward to tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Let's see if the other models trend NW. NAM sticking with its Feb 2001 redux. My "expectation" where I am is a few inches of slop after rain, if we can see more than this, awesome. Feb 2001 is actually a pretty brilliant comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Let's see if the other models trend NW. NAM sticking with its Feb 2001 redux. My "expectation" where I am is a few inches of slop after rain, if we can see more than this, awesome. I don't understand how your forecast is a few inches when the potential here is for a foot of snow even for NYC. This is a coastal storm folks and if this tracks through the BM the coastal areas will do best because they'll get the most precip and dynamics, especially if the slower depiction comes to fruition, resulting in a colder solution. I do not think NYC gets any dry slotted out of this, obviously still another 48hrs away but this is close to a blizzard for our area according to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 From PivotalWx (Kuchera ratio): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Crush job for Orange/Dutchess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Looks to be turning into a coast screw job Every other model is well SE of this. Jumping on the NAM alone is most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Looks to be turning into a coast screw job Not really still way too early to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: From PivotalWx (Kuchera ratio): This is assuming 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Every other model is well SE of this. Jumping on the NAM alone is most of the time. Aren't the GFS ensembles well nw of the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Every other model is well SE of this. Jumping on the NAM alone is most of the time. I see the consensus being between the 18z GFS and the NAM. The NAM is *usually* too amped at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Every other model is well SE of this. Jumping on the NAM alone is most of the time. I don't necessarily think the NAM is a good model, but it has had the hot hand lately, kinda like Brady last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: This is assuming 10:1? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: This is assuming 10:1? No that's the kuchera method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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