February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Unc, the 48-49 winter was a real standout for how much snow one could get in such a warm winter, reminds me of last winter in some ways.

they had a great two weeks in December in 48-49...

1948 blizzard...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53991524/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53991528

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

they had a great two weeks in December in 48-49...

1948 blizzard...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53991524/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53991528

the 48-49 winter also had several moderate sized events, which those other winters didn't have (and almost had two double digit major events to boot!)- which makes it even more amazing.

[JerseyWx]

17 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That's the only time I can remember the ocean temps being below freezing and an east wind bringing in freezing drizzle on the east end.

Lot of ice on the Hudson that year.

[bluewave]

Anyone who had this as a +3 or greater winter with over 20" of snow is doing very well through February 14th.

12/1-2/14 departures at local sites:

site...winter average...actual...departure

BDR...32.6...36.8....+4.2

NYC...35.1...37.8....+2.7

LGA...35.5...39.5.....+4.0

JFK....35.1...38.5....+3.4

EWR..34.2...37.4....+3.2

5 site average.......+3.5

This looks like only the 5th time that a +3 or greater winter produced 20" or more of snow around the area.

It's also the first time this happened 2 years in a row. 

16-17

15-16

05-06

90-91

48-49

[CIK62]

Next 8 days, including today, to be about +7degs.   Still looking for an extended BN period starting near 2/26, continuing to mid-March-----for whatever good that may do then for us winterwise.

Six straight 50deg. days coming 2/19---2/24 and no precipation till 2/24.

[SnowGoose69]

It looks like NYC should get #10 for warmest winter on record.  I think they need to average 35.4 or higher and it looks like that'll happen

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days, including today, to be about +7degs.   Still looking for an extended BN period starting near 2/26, continuing to mid-March-----for whatever good that may do then for us winterwise.

Six straight 50deg. days coming 2/19---2/24 and no precipation till 2/24.

If the latest teleconnection forecast (AO+/PNA+) is reasonably accurate, at least the opening of that period 2/25 through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. A modest warm anomaly, though nothing like the one that will precede it (2/18-24), is a possibility. The second week of March might be colder than normal based on how some past AO+/PNA+ patterns have evolved and taking into consideration the gradual shortening of wavelengths that will be occurring.

This winter, the warmth has outdueled the cold with colder synoptic patterns winding up warmer than has typically been the case during the 1981-2010 period and the warmer ones winding up comparable to or even a little warmer than similar patterns during the 1981-2010 period.

[WEATHERBUFF]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the latest teleconnection forecast (AO+/PNA+) is reasonably accurate, at least the opening of that period 2/25 through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. A modest warm anomaly, though nothing like the one that will precede it (2/18-24), is a possibility. The second week of March might be colder than normal based on how some past AO+/PNA+ patterns have evolved and taking into consideration the gradual shortening of wavelengths that will be occurring.

This winter, the warmth has outdueled the cold with colder synoptic patterns winding up warmer than has typically been the case during the 1981-2010 period and the warmer ones winding up comparable to or even a little warmer than similar patterns during the 1981-2010 period.

I don't think winter is over at least for NYC north.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the latest teleconnection forecast (AO+/PNA+) is reasonably accurate, at least the opening of that period 2/25 through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. A modest warm anomaly, though nothing like the one that will precede it (2/18-24), is a possibility. The second week of March might be colder than normal based on how some past AO+/PNA+ patterns have evolved and taking into consideration the gradual shortening of wavelengths that will be occurring.

This winter, the warmth has outdueled the cold with colder synoptic patterns winding up warmer than has typically been the case during the 1981-2010 period and the warmer ones winding up comparable to or even a little warmer than similar patterns during the 1981-2010 period.

When I see your posts Don I know that the game is almost over for this winter; you spend a lot of time on this and lay out your reasoning very well IMO. Maybe we can sneak something in before winter ends, but I'm not betting on it. Will the warmer winters be the new trend? We have been warned about this for some time, or will we get some colder ones again? Probably, but my guess is warmer winters will become the norm.

[Rtd208]

I think the end of February and March will be very active storm wise and I think we will see a few very potent storms but I just don't see them being big snow producers with the lack of cold air, the further north and west you go the better chance you will have to see wintry precipitation and New England will probably do well IMHO.

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think the end of February and March will be very active storm wise and I think we will see a few very potent storms but I just don't see them being big snow producers with the lack of cold air, the further north and west you go the better chance you will have to see wintry precipitation and New England will probably do well IMHO.

I could see us getting some front end slop, but I hate those types of storms. OTOH hand a decent few inches of heavy wet March snow with no mixing is fine with me.

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I don't think winter is over at least for NYC north.

I agree. I don't think we've seen our last measurable snowfall. Once temperatures move closer to normal, there will be opportunities for snowfall again (perhaps as early as the closing days of February and likely in March).

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

When I see your posts Don I know that the game is almost over for this winter; you spend a lot of time on this and lay out your reasoning very well IMO. Maybe we can sneak something in before winter ends, but I'm not betting on it. Will the warmer winters be the new trend? We have been warned about this for some time, or will we get some colder ones again? Probably, but my guess is warmer winters will become the norm.

Typically, March has seen measurable snowfall following La Niña winters (both New York City and Philadelphia). So, at least until I see guidance that suggests otherwise, my guess is that we'll see at least one measurable snow event in March.

I agree that warmer winters will likely become increasingly common. The observed warming is a long-term trend and it is continuing. Natural variability is occurring within the context of increased radiative forcing, so some colder winters can be expected. At the same time, some exceptionally warm ones are likely, as well, and it would not surprise me if we saw another winter that rivaled or surpassed the warmth seen during winters 2001-02 and 2011-12 over the next 10 years. The average winter temperature will probably rise another one or two tenths of a degree over that timeframe.

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

When I see your posts Don I know that the game is almost over for this winter; you spend a lot of time on this and lay out your reasoning very well IMO. Maybe we can sneak something in before winter ends, but I'm not betting on it. Will the warmer winters be the new trend? We have been warned about this for some time, or will we get some colder ones again? Probably, but my guess is warmer winters will become the norm.

Of course we'll have some colder winters....look at the Pacific NW and Mountain West this year with large negative anomalies and outstanding snowfall. The trough that was over them in Winter 16-17 will be over us sometime in the future....just remember how cold we got in 13-14 and 14-15.

The main reason for the warmth this year is the -PNA/SE ridge, not global warming. AGW probably contributed like 0.5F of the +2.7F that NYC is running this year. So while there is clearly a background warming signal, it is overwhelmed in any individual winter by the pattern in the jet stream. So while we will continue to get milder on average, there will be plenty of variation.

[WEATHERBUFF]

13 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Of course we'll have some colder winters....look at the Pacific NW and Mountain West this year with large negative anomalies and outstanding snowfall. The trough that was over them in Winter 16-17 will be over us sometime in the future....just remember how cold we got in 13-14 and 14-15.

The main reason for the warmth this year is the -PNA/SE ridge, not global warming. AGW probably contributed like 0.5F of the +2.7F that NYC is running this year. So while there is clearly a background warming signal, it is overwhelmed in any individual winter by the pattern in the jet stream. So while we will continue to get milder on average, there will be plenty of variation.

I'm sure you have noticed that northeast Pa,that is north of AVP area has done well in snow despite being a few degrees above average.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Of course we'll have some colder winters....look at the Pacific NW and Mountain West this year with large negative anomalies and outstanding snowfall. The trough that was over them in Winter 16-17 will be over us sometime in the future....just remember how cold we got in 13-14 and 14-15.

The main reason for the warmth this year is the -PNA/SE ridge, not global warming. AGW probably contributed like 0.5F of the +2.7F that NYC is running this year. So while there is clearly a background warming signal, it is overwhelmed in any individual winter by the pattern in the jet stream. So while we will continue to get milder on average, there will be plenty of variation.

And Eurasia was very cold and snowy this year.  October Siberian Snow cover was at record levels.  (which brings into question the -AO theory with snowcover in Siberia since the AO was positive 95% of the time  this year)  

[weatherpruf]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

And Eurasia was very cold and snowy this year.  October Siberian Snow cover was at record levels.  (which brings into question the -AO theory with snowcover in Siberia since the AO was positive 95% of the time  this year)  

Of course we had colder, but much less snowy, winters in the 80's. I remember the Raritan river freezing over. Don't see that in winter too often anymore.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, nzucker said:

Of course we'll have some colder winters....look at the Pacific NW and Mountain West this year with large negative anomalies and outstanding snowfall. The trough that was over them in Winter 16-17 will be over us sometime in the future....just remember how cold we got in 13-14 and 14-15.

The main reason for the warmth this year is the -PNA/SE ridge, not global warming. AGW probably contributed like 0.5F of the +2.7F that NYC is running this year. So while there is clearly a background warming signal, it is overwhelmed in any individual winter by the pattern in the jet stream. So while we will continue to get milder on average, there will be plenty of variation.

It could be 1700 and this would still be a mild/warm winter. We lucked out somewhat getting to a normal season for most of us. We easily could be D.C.-Philly with single digit seasonal totals. This winter behaved much more like a typical La Niña with the cold air in the NW states and latitude pattern with snow amounts. 

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It could be 1700 and this would still be a mild/warm winter. We lucked out somewhat getting to a normal season for most of us. We easily could be D.C.-Philly with single digit seasonal totals. This winter behaved much more like a typical La Niña with the cold air in the NW states and latitude pattern with snow amounts. 

We are not closing in on normal in a lot of CNJ and I don't think we will this year unless something comes out of nowhere. Which, of course, is how it usually happens.

[tmagan]

17 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It looks like NYC should get #10 for warmest winter on record.  I think they need to average 35.4 or higher and it looks like that'll happen

That use to be a big deal, but not anymore.

[nzucker]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It could be 1700 and this would still be a mild/warm winter. We lucked out somewhat getting to a normal season for most of us. We easily could be D.C.-Philly with single digit seasonal totals. This winter behaved much more like a typical La Niña with the cold air in the NW states and latitude pattern with snow amounts. 

Yes, much is being made of two extremely warm winters in a row, but the reality is that this jet stream pattern will always produce mild weather in the East. We had a strong PAC jet, +QBO/low solar leading to +NAO/+AO, and a PV in eastern Eurasia. None of those features lead to a cold winter in the East. The difference between the warmest and coldest years globally from 2000-2017 is about 0.5C in global temperatures, yet we have had winter months like Feb '15 (-11F)and Dec '15 (+13F). And that was in the same year.

This winter behaved like a much stronger Nina than ONI would indicate, as you say. Despite barely surpassing weak Nina thresholds, the gradient looked like 73-74/07-08, two of the stronger Ninas on record. We had a huge gradient between a -8F winter in Montana and a +6F winter in FL; Seattle and Portland have had more snow than DC and Philly. The unusual double +QBO and low ozone/-AAM may help explain why this La Nina acted so powerful despite its official weak status.

 

[Paragon]

17 hours ago, nzucker said:

Of course we'll have some colder winters....look at the Pacific NW and Mountain West this year with large negative anomalies and outstanding snowfall. The trough that was over them in Winter 16-17 will be over us sometime in the future....just remember how cold we got in 13-14 and 14-15.

The main reason for the warmth this year is the -PNA/SE ridge, not global warming. AGW probably contributed like 0.5F of the +2.7F that NYC is running this year. So while there is clearly a background warming signal, it is overwhelmed in any individual winter by the pattern in the jet stream. So while we will continue to get milder on average, there will be plenty of variation.

But when you look at the world wide temp anomalies you realize that the Pac NW and Mountain West are tiny islands in a huge global signal of warmth.  Winters like 13-14 and 14-15, let's just say I wouldn't be holding my breath on anything like that happening again, that's probably a 1 in 20 year kind of cold, and I actually didn't find 13-14 as impressive as 10-11 or 14-15 was.

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Of course we had colder, but much less snowy, winters in the 80's. I remember the Raritan river freezing over. Don't see that in winter too often anymore.

I feel like our storm tracks have changed and on top of that the warmer SST in the Atlantic enable storms to bomb out more quickly and throw back more moisture.  Look at Feb 1983, that was a once in a decade kind of storm.  Now you get that kind of storm every couple of years.

For us, last year's blizzard beat out Feb 78, Feb 83, Jan 96, PD 2 2003 and Boxing Day 2010.

[Paragon]

17 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I'm sure you have noticed that northeast Pa,that is north of AVP area has done well in snow despite being a few degrees above average.

and just south of there in ABE, they've done way worse than we have.  It's a north and east thing this year once you go east of the Mississippi.  

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Typically, March has seen measurable snowfall following La Niña winters (both New York City and Philadelphia). So, at least until I see guidance that suggests otherwise, my guess is that we'll see at least one measurable snow event in March.

I agree that warmer winters will likely become increasingly common. The observed warming is a long-term trend and it is continuing. Natural variability is occurring within the context of increased radiative forcing, so some colder winters can be expected. At the same time, some exceptionally warm ones are likely, as well, and it would not surprise me if we saw another winter that rivaled or surpassed the warmth seen during winters 2001-02 and 2011-12 over the next 10 years. The average winter temperature will probably rise another one or two tenths of a degree over that timeframe.

And summers too, Don.  I read some research that indicates that by 2050 what we consider our hottest summers right now will be considered our average summers by then.

[NJwx85]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

I feel like our storm tracks have changed and on top of that the warmer SST in the Atlantic enable storms to bomb out more quickly and throw back more moisture.  Look at Feb 1983, that was a once in a decade kind of storm.  Now you get that kind of storm every couple of years.

For us, last year's blizzard beat out Feb 78, Feb 83, Jan 96, PD 2 2003 and Boxing Day 2010.

Maybe for you locally. It's not just about getting the biggest totals. 96', PD2 and Boxing Day are all time greats and untouchable.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Maybe for you locally. It's not just about getting the biggest totals. 96', PD2 and Boxing Day are all time greats and untouchable.

Yep. I'm just referring to the greatest storm total in a specific location.

For impact no doubt Jan 1996 was the greatest, with Boxing Day second (in my memory anyway.)

PD2 was actually the greatest storm total on record here before January 2016.

 

[Paragon]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I don't think we've seen our last measurable snowfall. Once temperatures move closer to normal, there will be opportunities for snowfall again (perhaps as early as the closing days of February and likely in March).

The city might have seen its last big snowfall though (this winter big would be 8"+ at any of the three airports or NYC).  We could easily see one or even two 4" snowfalls though.

[NJwx85]

35 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yep. I'm just referring to the greatest storm total in a specific location.

For impact no doubt Jan 1996 was the greatest, with Boxing Day second (in my memory anyway.)

PD2 was actually the greatest storm total on record here before January 2016.

 

The biggest knock on 12/26 is that DC saw nothing and Boston saw nothing like what NYC saw. 

 

Part of what makes 96' so incredible is the tremendous total area impacted. Just compare the areas of 18"+ snowfall. It's not even close.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

And summers too, Don.  I read some research that indicates that by 2050 what we consider our hottest summers right now will be considered our average summers by then.

That's true.