Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Experimental: watching the 21st through the 26th for emerging storm signal. I say "experimental," ...because obviously these teleconnector mode/modlity -based suggestion don't always bear fruit. It is always a game of balancing probabilities in any engagement where chaos plays a role. But, the multi-day rise in the PNA has been well underway, and now... we have in recent days (going back four as far as I am aware) a solidly consistent -NAO progged from the GEFs mean. That -NAO part of this gets rolling over the next week. Somewhere out there in time, there's a bit of an Archembault signal. The PNA alone is more central to her statistical science, but the NAO does have a bit of its own similar finding/study, so the two together only helps the idea along.. That's number 1 above. Not sure if that later signal number 2 has legs, but that's a secondary peak in the PNA that's also gathered some legs in the last two days. The EPO relaxing the postiive mode with antecedent rise in the PNA ... it offers some hope that if the EPO does go negative, the heights in the deep south won't be as out of sync and thusly hugely compressed with too much anomalously fast flow to allow much to happen. So, long and the short: The shorter term deal over the next couple days ...but there is a more multi-region, mult- faceted signal in the 21st + range. I saw the 00z Euro get close and well ... much to our collective chagrin, Archembault doens't discuss snow or rain - just 'enhancing precipitation' - which intuits event frequency from logic alone. The operational runs have been flirting with that anyway - this is a time when the flirtation may actually lead to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 John, I was looking at the indices as well and noticed the rise modeled in the PNA and the phase change on the NAO. Taking a look at last nights Op Euro (00z) you can see this nicely. The EPS has a nice look too btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just checked models for the first time today...isn't that euro from from last night pretty damn weenie-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: John, I was looking at the indices as well and noticed the rise modeled in the PNA and the phase change on the NAO. Taking a look at last nights Op Euro (00z) you can see this nicely. The EPS has a nice look too btw. That is an impressive appeal! I didn't want to get too into modeling specifics....heh, despite the thread's title and so forth, as there will certainly be reams of pages for that sort of digging in. But yeah, that's just thickness challenged by ooooh so little from becoming a historic snow thing there. That's like a "snow machine" look. It's when you have sfc to 875mb NE, then E from 850 to 750 mb, then SE from there to 600 or so ...then S and so on... Basically, maximizing theta-e transport into relative sigma levels without tainting the total depth with too much warmth at any given layer. Any system that achieves that is a snow machine - We used to joke about that but it's legit when you think about it. Anyway, that's obviously subject to change... just that as is, that's an impressive look. It's also technically a Red Block btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Frightening how this is mirroring 2015 (runs and ducks the flying buns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is an impressive appeal! I didn't want to get too into modeling specifics....heh, despite the thread's title and so forth, as there will certainly be reams of pages for that sort of digging in. But yeah, that's just thickness challenged by ooooh so little from becoming a historic snow thing there. That's like a "snow machine" look. It's when you have sfc to 875mb NE, then E from 850 to 750 mb, then SE from there to 600 or so ...then S and so on... Basically, maximizing theta-e transport into relative sigma levels without tainting the total depth with too much warmth at any given layer. Any system that achieves that is a snow machine - We used to joke about that but it's legit when you think about it. Anyway, that's obviously subject to change... just that as is, that's an impressive look. It's also technically a Red Block btw I agree with the model specifics. Just that the look was there. Even today's op 12z GFS has it. PNA ridge is too far west so its a warm look but still has the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Frightening how this is mirroring 2015 (runs and ducks the flying buns) Snow to thy knickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Snow to thy knickers. I'm down for a tricentennial repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Anyone know what phase of the MJO is progged towards the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Anyone know what phase of the MJO is progged towards the end of the month? GEFS says 8 > 1 > 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is an impressive appeal! I didn't want to get too into modeling specifics....heh, despite the thread's title and so forth, as there will certainly be reams of pages for that sort of digging in. But yeah, that's just thickness challenged by ooooh so little from becoming a historic snow thing there. That's like a "snow machine" look. It's when you have sfc to 875mb NE, then E from 850 to 750 mb, then SE from there to 600 or so ...then S and so on... Basically, maximizing theta-e transport into relative sigma levels without tainting the total depth with too much warmth at any given layer. Any system that achieves that is a snow machine - We used to joke about that but it's legit when you think about it. Anyway, that's obviously subject to change... just that as is, that's an impressive look. It's also technically a Red Block btw However, as I was saying in the other Mayhem thread a couple hours ago, would the Canadian High, over deep snow cover not create some cold air and low dews to advect in and keep us cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Frightening how this is mirroring 2015 (runs and ducks the flying buns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: However, as I was saying in the other Mayhem thread a couple hours ago, would the Canadian High, over deep snow cover not create some cold air and low dews to advect in and keep us cold enough? In theory ...yeah. (actually it's an interesting question re the dew point mathematics). You know it's funny, no one (or effort that I am aware) has ever put out a formal refereed paper that titled: "Regional North American snow cover modulating low level thickness effect on evolution of cyclogenesis" ? why - it seems it's come up as an operational meteorological aspect on enough occasions. AFD's talk about snow pack drainage, or cold nights/radiative over snow pack then feeding back into CAD... it's obviously factor-able. Maybe it's just one of things where everyone knows it is what it is and we move on. Anyway, it's true but ...that's also something like that is in that Ekman layer of uncertainty where the models typically can't resolve those type of physical inter-plays so close to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 12z GEFS showing potential in that time period as well. Thicknesses blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Every run.. every model keeps cooling . The torch has vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every run.. every model keeps cooling . The torch has vanished The bare ground really cares if it's 42 instead of 50. You are delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The bare ground really cares if it's 42 instead of 50. You are delusional. I don't follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't follow Through 1/15: BOS: +3.5 BDL: +3.3 ORH: +3.0 PVD: +2.9 The next 7 days will add to thone positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't follow It's a mild, terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I've given up on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a mild, terrible pattern. It is? We have 2 winter events the next 7 days. That's not terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is? We have 2 winter events the next 7 days. That's not terrible Every event is a winter event during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Every event is a winter event during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Of course it's AN, but it's far from the advertised torch . That's what I'm saying. And we're getting an ice /snow storm tomorrow night and possibly another in 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Make sure to take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I'd take half of a Feb 2015 and run for the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro is driving rain to snow after day 7 and then tees up a Miller B to end it. LOL. EGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 nuke.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Nah .. just mild terrible . WAN thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I'd take half of a Feb 2015 and run for the hills As long as it isn't the latter half of Feb '15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.