Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not doing anything. Just saying the hiatus from cold and snow (with the exception of tonight's thing) had been modeled well. I don't think it has, though... What about the -NAO from yesterday... I think the "mood" to 86 the winter is verifying rather nicely, sure. Come hell or high water ... this winter seems destined to irk the winter enthusiasm base - no quesiton. In elaborate ways, too. And...it's not just not working out... it's doing so in a insidiously. heh, it's all good. Frankly, I'm ready for spring... I kind of checked out back in mid December when it first became apparent we were being dealt reversals ... Just trying to be objective is all. As much as I dread middle age... time goes by real fast for me. It'll be June 10 in like 10 minutes ... fuggit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: shut'em down? This particular run would certainly do that with warmth and rains. Though it's got zero support for record warmth like that. What a fluke run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This particular run would certainly do that with warmth and rains. Though it's got zero support for record warmth like that. What a fluke run Really? As Scott and I were just intimating ... maybe the cosmic stick in the bum winter we're having might be a clue, too - no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Gotta watch that block though up toward Ontario and Hudson Bay between D4-5...Euro is stronger with it this run and if it manages to close off and sit there, then next week all of the sudden becomes more interesting. The block opens back up on this run and moves east, so it allows the storm to be warmer at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Hey thats a nice southeaster event for kevin on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The rains next week on Euro aren't even warm...they are the ugly 35-40F variety. It's not a torching 55F rainstorm (except maybe the cape, SE MA and southcoast areas) Not that the verbatim solution really matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 February 2015 walking thru the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think it has, though... What about the -NAO from yesterday... I think the "mood" to 86 the winter is verifying rather nicely, sure. Come hell or high water ... this winter seems destined to irk the winter enthusiasm base - no quesiton. In elaborate ways, too. And...it's not just not working out... it's doing so in a insidiously. heh, it's all good. Frankly, I'm ready for spring... I kind of checked out back in mid December when it first became apparent we were being dealt reversals ... Just trying to be objective is all. As much as I dread middle age... time goes by real fast for me. It'll be June 10 in like 10 minutes ... fuggit From almost two weeks out, the whole hemispheric pattern was modeled to get crappy. That's what I mean. I don't care about the specifics of whether it's 40 or 55...it looks rather hostile for good cold and snow which is all I mean. However, given the look I see heading into Feb, I think checking out is a bit premature. But that's JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From almost two weeks out, the whole hemispheric pattern was modeled to get crappy. That's what I mean. I don't care about the specifics of whether it's 40 or 55...it looks rather hostile for good cold and snow which is all I mean. However, given the look I see heading into Feb, I think checking out is a bit premature. But that's JMHO. oh i'm with ya - i get it. we're just sort of biding time "hoping" that the -NAO has legs - that was sort of new to the equation along the way. right now, it's limping in the guidance to put it nicely. it could return. the way the winter has gone, it won't... Know what a lot of this reminds me of - that notion that the base-line climate has/is passing over a threshold (so to speak). Like, maybe in the absence of a -EPO or -NAO (that's not a circle jerk like this modeled pos), the baseline is already too late. maybe we think of cold snaps as getting back to normal, when in reality, they are just cold anomalies... but then I think that's not likely ... when the climate/NASA tell us this month or that month is the warmest ever...they're usually talking about mere decimals less than tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh i'm with ya - i get it. we're just sort of biding time "hoping" that the -NAO has legs - that was sort of new to the equation along the way. right now, it's limping in the guidance to put it nicely. it could return. the way the winter has gone, it won't... Know what a lot of this reminds me of - that notion that the base-line climate has/is passing over a threshold (so to speak). Like, maybe in the absence of a -EPO or -NAO (that's not a circle jerk like this modeled pos), the baseline is already too late. maybe we think of cold snaps as getting back to normal, when in reality, they are just cold anomalies... but then I think that's not likely ... when the climate/NASA tell us this month or that month is the warmest ever...they're usually talking about mere decimals less than tenths. The -NAO is voodoo until further notice. Guidance has been biased way too negative since the Fall. I'm not talking about some weenie Hudson Bay block, I mean a true -NAO. I do see signs of some sort of strat disruption as you have noted too. The ridging at 50mb-10mb looks to coincide with 500mb ridging in the same spot. Hopefully that means we have some stability to the pattern after we flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The -NAO is voodoo until further notice. Guidance has been biased way too negative since the Fall. I'm not talking about some weenie Hudson Bay block, I mean a true -NAO. I do see signs of some sort of strat disruption as you have noted too. The ridging at 50mb-10mb looks to coincide with 500mb ridging in the same spot. Hopefully that means we have some stability to the pattern after we flip. If we do ... frankly, the PNA just rose from -2 to passing neutral and supposedly heading for +1 ... we should have had a big A. by now anyway ... we haven't. Nor has the "pattern" convincingly done schit in my mind. I mean, I keeping vigil that it still may... and it may. But, so far, California is getting ready for another hundo in the elevations with flood warnings in the valleys - Weeks ago I postulated in brief that I wondered what would happen if the EPO really relaxed, with that preponderant warm wall in the deep S creating so much gradient at the time. Like the earliest spring ever... At some point in this GW scare, that unsavory reality will happen... Most roll eyes and argue we're decades away from this or that ... but, nobody knows. The nay sayers are as full of schit as the hay sayers. At the end of the day, warming tends to equal not cooling. In any event, the stratosphere part of this is also voo doo to me until it is shown to be a downweller - i haven't seen evidence of that. warm nodes pop off all the time; doesn't make them modulators of the AO. as far as the NAO since Fall ... that may be so... This was the first modeled negative phase that caught my eye - I wonder if we do get the phase negative and never cool off because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Lots of melts today.... shades are still closed for two more weeks.... as has been discussed for probably 10 days now. Open on 2/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lots of melts today.... shades are still closed for two more weeks.... as has been discussed for probably 10 days now. Open on 2/1 I still stand by this On 1/11/2017 at 0:25 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Close the shades for 15 days, at least down here. Open them again during the Super Bowl bye week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Lol 2 more weeks. The cold is here the 27th and big storm signal last 2 days of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol 2 more weeks. The cold is here the 27th and big storm signal last 2 days of month That's 10 days of waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: That's 10 days of waiting With wintry precip today and tomorrow and as Will stated, something to watch early next week. Better than 50's everyday Like folks were calling for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With wintry precip today and tomorrow and as Will stated, something to watch early next week. Better than 50's everyday Like folks were calling for It's been above normal and will continue to be through the next 7-14 days. No one called for 50s (20 above) for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: It's been above normal and will continue to be through the next 7-14 days. No one called for 50s (20 above) for 2 weeks. BN looks to be timed 26-27th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: BN looks to be timed 26-27th on Add a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's been above normal and will continue to be through the next 7-14 days. No one called for 50s (20 above) for 2 weeks. He's spinning his web of BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol 2 more weeks. The cold is here the 27th and big storm signal last 2 days of month Lol 10 days 2 weeks. Same damn thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, tamarack said: The 2/2 storm was windy and we had some lesser wind with the VD bust, but beyond that, my recollection was cold, clear, calm wx. Also dry - diurnal range averaged 26.6 with no major frontal rockets/plummets, so sublimation was certainly in play, though having the pack with a net decline 2/2 thru end of month remains an oddity. Some of that decline was inevitable due to settling, as 1/30-2/2 saw two storms bring 16" of 15:1 snow, but we had storms of 4.7" and 5.5" (plus a number of under 2" events) later that month and still lost depth. I could only check AUG for winds in your area, but they had gusts around 30 mph for most of the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Add a couple more days. Nothing has a torch thru month end. Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing has a torch thru month end. Nothing Whatever you say chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whatever you say chief. Post the images that have warmth thru Jan31 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Post the images that have warmth thru Jan31 please He didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: He didn't say that. The man is sick. It's a terrible pattern with the chance of ending in a torch before we flip. I'm not sure about that torch part, but it's a puke pattern until after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: He didn't say that. I'm asking for images of AN thru month end. That's all I want to see. Maybe I'm missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Post the images that have warmth thru Jan31 please Pattern looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He's spinning his web of BS. 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The man is sick. It's a terrible pattern with the chance of ending in a torch before we flip. I'm not sure about that torch part, but it's a puke pattern until after day 10. Same old same old with that one...Total and complete BS!! He's spinning his web of BS so he can fool himself into sleeping better these next 12 days lol..it's so dam stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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