OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hear no mention of that...just talk about how everything was northwest, SGZ was deeply saturated temps were perfect. Everything verifying nw, blah, blah. I have to step up my game with stuff like that....if I understood those things, I would have ignored all of that crap and went lighter. Yeah, it's tough. I mean things definitely verified NW, but there were some flags to be wary of. I mentioned some of them in my AFD last night, as to why I didn't go crazy on headlines for my area. But it's also a little easier for me when the goods were always going to be SE. BOX had the gradient right in the heart of their forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty solid event in Natick with over 8" and counting. Glad we didn't follow qpf here. This area is more prone to the exhaust being further north. Glad you made out ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, it's tough. I mean things definitely verified NW, but there were some flags to be wary of. I mentioned some of them in my AFD last night, as to why I didn't go crazy on headlines for my area. But it's also a little easier for me when the goods were always going to be SE. BOX had the gradient right in the heart of their forecast area. I guess the frustration is as much bc I can't be sure of how to avoid this type of bust again in the future, as much as it is about missing the really good snows. I'm coming away from this just as uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess the frustration is as much bc I can't be sure of how to avoid this type of bust again in the future, as much as it is about missing the really good snows. I'm coming away from this just as uncertain. You never avoid busts. A good enthusiasts or meteorologist will just have less busts. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10.25 and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess the frustration is as much bc I can't be sure of how to avoid this type of bust again in the future, as much as it is about missing the really good snows. I'm coming away from this just as uncertain. When the forecast gets difficult, just work your way back to the large scale. Stick to synoptics, because chasing the mesoscale can burn you. Like you said, closed H7 low would mean better forcing and more evenly distributed snow because of CCB development. Likewise, a deep DGZ is great, but it needs to also have lift and saturation. They helped us key into a farther NW track days before the models really started hinting at it with QPF, but it appears the NWS also went a little GGW too. So we're all guilty of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: You never avoid busts. A good enthusiasts or meteorologist will just have less busts. . I mean....this was sounding the like the mid level magician system from Feb 2015 for awhile, and it ended up as the boxing day's gimpy, red-headed step child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Really great day in N. RI - hard to give an accurate obs for snow on the ground, but I'll say 8" and still snowing (radar be damned.) And the fluffiest, sparkly, dry powder you can imagine. Winds continue to freshen, and 14.5F. Football, bourbon, and plenty of snow on the ground. Nice surprise and much appreciated for what has so far been a quiet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: When the forecast gets difficult, just work your way back to the large scale. Stick to synoptics, because chasing the mesoscale can burn you. Like you said, closed H7 low would mean better forcing and more evenly distributed snow because of CCB development. Likewise, a deep DGZ is great, but it needs to also have lift and saturation. They helped us key into a farther NW track days before the models really started hinting at it with QPF, but it appears the NWS also went a little GGW too. So we're all guilty of it. This is my main take away....if I bust low in the future on a system without a closed H7 low, then so be it. Steve, awesome, buddy....hope the dogs enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The problem is that small nuances can burn you. It just happens. Next time, you'll forecast lower because of the qpf and then you'll get burned and get 11" on 0.45" of qpf....because the next time the DGZ has the lift perfect and you get a band. I went 6-10 for ORH and will probably miss barely on the low end. It happens. Maybe should have gone 5-9 or 4-8 but that's the game. But just east in westborough, Framingham, and Natick it's going to beat the model qpf by a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
October_1979 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 8" final here. congrats to those to the east who did even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Good stuff. Thanks for the feedback, guys.....appreciate it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 And then there was yesterday morning over SE areas. Who would have thought 5.5" with that and 30:1 ratios? I mean it looked like someone could get a few inches, but that's pretty darn good. Sometimes it also helps being directionally correct too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 The snow guy just came so I had to move whatever car was in the driveway once he plowed a path for me to get out. Still snowing steadily. Had to scrape the windows with my bad arm but I got it to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish we would get one...just one March 2001, or Dec 1992 event....its either ski resort shuffle, or cj. Anything else is an endangered species. You didn't mix in 01? I flipped to freezing rain, sleet, and i think plain rain for almost 18 hours and still managed well over a foot, that was an epic 54 hour snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 We have estimated 14" . Heavy heavy drinking going on. Manhattan warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Over 10" now and still some light snow coming down...maybe I'll get 10.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 A little over 8" in Cambridge and still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: You didn't mix in 01? I flipped to freezing rain, sleet, and i think plain rain for almost 18 hours and still managed well over a foot, that was an epic 54 hour snow storm. I started as some sleet and rain, then flipped pretty quickly to snow. Had like 21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All I kept hearing was how the interior shouldn't worry bc everything was saturated the everything was orgasmic in the SGZ. This was a lamer Boxing day. I don't get why everyone said that. I posted like six days ago saying I was worried for your area and the interior. The storm had that "I'm gonna piss Ray off" look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, amarshall said: We have estimated 14" . Heavy heavy drinking going on. Sweet , a mini 12/21/09 distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ha, I called Carver / Lakeville as the JP this morning! What did you get? I'm at 3.1". About the same as the New Years Eve event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5.5" and still snowing....hopefully will crawl into my 6-12" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, metagraphica said: Over 10" now and still some light snow coming down...maybe I'll get 10.5" Nice thats good to hear, makes me feel a little better about going 6-12 especially out in the eastern counties, im sure there will be some 11 and 12 spots especially around ginxy to the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: I don't get why everyone said that. I posted like six days ago saying I was worried for your area and the interior. The storm had that "I'm gonna piss Ray off" look I agreed, but at the last moment, caved.....at least I didn't go nuts....I mean, my range is close to verifying on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Here's the 12z Euro 12 hour forecast (valid 00z this evening). You can see the f-gen axis (red), and deformation axis (yellow) like I showed last night. The white line would be the area you look for the strongest banding to set up. I would say it's a good proxy for the radar right now. The problem is this is H7, so when you start to talk about much farther NW of that you are getting pretty high aloft. And there are your lift and saturation problems. We have the lift, but we don't have the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nice thats good to hear, makes me feel a little better about going 6-12 especially out in the eastern counties, im sure there will be some 11 and 12 spots especially around ginxy to the SE coast. Yeah the furthest west areas in CT are definitely going to come close to 11 or 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Pretty cool OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 This is what happens when you're too far NW. But now we have a great proxy for warning criteria if we don't have a ruler handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Pretty cool OES Seriously. Those streamers connect back to features on our radar just off the Pit North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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