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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Let me try to explain why I think that wedge is not very likely.  That map is at 850mb from the operational gfs day 4. Fine.  What's it show at the surface?  No cold air.  What do the ensembles show at these levels?  Similar to 2m ops.  They support each other.  What about the para?  Its 6z run looks warm.

Is this data people want ignored just because it's not positive?...

 

 

gfs_T2m_us_20.png (1024×696)

gfs_T2m_us_21.png (1024×696)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png (1024×696)

 

What about these images?  Are you not posting them because it isn't what you want to see?

If you have a problem with what a model shows, take it up with the model, not the people posting it.

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22 minutes ago, Sparky said:

March 99 had 3 events.

March 4 - 6"

March 9 - 3"

March 14 - 9"

total - 18"

Not in DC, they mostly missed the first and 3rd events, they had the one in the middle and that just about it other then a sloppy inch or two with the March 14th.  I was not talking about our area, we do much better.  Our WORST years usually still manage to get up into the 8-12" range while that is actually just a typically crappy year but not historically bad year in DC or Baltimore.  Their duds are under 5" years.  

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Let me try to explain why I think that wedge is not very likely.  That map is at 850mb from the operational gfs day 4. Fine.  What's it show at the surface?  No cold air.  What do the ensembles show at these levels?  Similar to 2m ops.  They support each other.  What about the para?  Its 6z run looks warm.

Is this data people want ignored just because it's not positive?...

 

There really is no "wedge". There is no cold air source. Those areas are colder at 850 mb and surface(as modeled) due to elevation and dynamical cooling most likely. And that is what it would take for a storm with a crappy air mass to produce snow- elevation and dynamics. It would need to deepen faster, or any ccb snow will be northeast of the MA. That is more likely. Most likely its a cold rain for this entire region, but there is an outside chance at some snow for the mountains.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

gfs_T2m_us_20.png (1024×696)

gfs_T2m_us_21.png (1024×696)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png (1024×696)

 

What about these images?  Are you not posting them because it isn't what you want to see?

If you have a problem with what a model shows, take it up with the model, not the people posting it.

 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Throw out the Euro.  Not even close. 

 

:P 

If you insist.

ecmwf_T850_eus_6.png

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4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Literally the euro would only need to be 5 degrees colder in all levels and it be a wet paste bomb for 1-95. It is so close. Not bad for 100 hours out. Keep it trending 20 more miles until the event and then we got something.

I get confused when you talk about trending in this set-up. Trend toward colder air for those of us along 95? Where's that air coming from?

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The bickering is pointless.  The early week period has trended a lot colder the last 72 hours.  That is undeniable.  Its now very close for places up here and out west.  1-2 more degrees and were looking at a wet snow paste job.  It still needs a bit more work then that for the Dc/Balt area.  The models right now as they are still show mostly rain up here and all rain in the cities.  Has there been a trend colder yes.  Arguing the details of all that seems pointless.  But the cold isnt "coming" from anywhere, the models are simply trending colder with the entire column, the cold is simply appearing over us so to speak.  Part of that is the storm evolution becoming more favorable.  Placing the H5 low and CCB over us which then aids in convective cooling.  get the low a little deeper and heights to crash just a tad bit more and its possible it trends a little colder.  Still a tall order.  But for some with a little elevation NW of 95 its close enough.  I don't usually post about stuff like that because if your in DC you dont care.  But location matters so to pick on someone up here or out by winchester who has a slim chance of something out of this just because you might be in a location that doesnt is petty too.  As mitch pointed out its still 100 hours out and has time to continue to trend better or pull a lucy on us.  

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7 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Literally the euro would only need to be 5 degrees colder in all levels and it be a wet paste bomb for 1-95. It is so close. Not bad for 100 hours out. Keep it trending 20 more miles until the event and then we got something.

we dont need a 20 mile trend.  The SLP track and h5 are pretty solid.  The problem is the antecedent airmass.  We just need a colder trend, not a this direction or that trend.  

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look at euro shows 850's below zero for majority of storm up here. If surface drops like gfs to mid 30s then n/w burbs with any elevation  would get a heavy cement paste job...interesting trends

Don't be stupid, you take the surface temps of the GFS and the 850 of the euro and predict a foot of snow.  DUH

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The bickering is pointless.  The early week period has trended a lot colder the last 72 hours.  That is undeniable.  Its now very close for places up here and out west.  1-2 more degrees and were looking at a wet snow paste job.  It still needs a bit more work then that for the Dc/Balt area.  The models right now as they are still show mostly rain up here and all rain in the cities.  Has there been a trend colder yes.  Arguing the details of all that seems pointless.  But the cold isnt "coming" from anywhere, the models are simply trending colder with the entire column, the cold is simply appearing over us so to speak.  Part of that is the storm evolution becoming more favorable.  Placing the H5 low and CCB over us which then aids in convective cooling.  get the low a little deeper and heights to crash just a tad bit more and its possible it trends a little colder.  Still a tall order.  But for some with a little elevation NW of 95 its close enough.  I don't usually post about stuff like that because if your in DC you dont care.  But location matters so to pick on someone up here or out by winchester who has a slim chance of something out of this just because you might be in a location that doesnt is petty too.  As mitch pointed out its still 100 hours out and has time to continue to trend better or pull a lucy on us.  

I think part of the "cold" stuff is the fact that it is the heart of winter and cold is pretty much the baseline.  It's pretty easy to get to "cold" even in an above avg temp setup.

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9 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Literally the euro would only need to be 5 degrees colder in all levels and it be a wet paste bomb for 1-95. It is so close. Not bad for 100 hours out. Keep it trending 20 more miles until the event and then we got something.

It id not directional trend we need.. rather we need a trend in temps.. The track basically perfect...  perhaps something changes in the next day or so with HP to our north.. thats the only thing that will help us

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2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Literally the euro would only need to be 5 degrees colder in all levels and it be a wet paste bomb for 1-95. It is so close. Not bad for 100 hours out. Keep it trending 20 more miles until the event and then we got something.

There is almost no cold air to tap.  Best we can hope for is a mix of the 500 mb low tracks over us.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

we dont need a 20 mile trend.  The SLP track and h5 are pretty solid.  The problem is the antecedent airmass.  We just need a colder trend, not a this direction or that trend.  

LOL.. I replied with almost the same thing before reading yours... 

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I get confused when you talk about trending in this set-up. Trend toward colder air for those of us along 95? Where's that air coming from?

The trend towards colder the last few days isnt because the cold is coming from anywhere.  Its more that the models are trending the entire airmass a bit colder as we move closer.  Some of the recent colder look is due to a shift towards a more consolidated well organized system with a perfect H5 pass.  That places the ccb over us along with the crashing heights under the H5 low and combined leads to enough convective cooling to get us close.  To get the last 1-2 degree drop I would need, or 4-5 you would is going to be tough though.  We are already talking about a pretty perfect track here so not much can improve there.  We would need a slightly more amplified system perhaps.  Or simple model error, like they are too warm by a couple degrees, that is not crazy.  The low is pretty strong but not maxed out in potential so a slightly stronger system is possible.  NOT likely but possible.  The models could be underestimating the cooling, a bit more high pressure building up to the north under the ridging, a bit more convective cooling....eehh do I think its likely NO but within the realm of possibility yes.  

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It is just as fair to say the models can't be right with warm temps shown 7+ days out as it is to say they can't be right about the cold temps.

 

Here's the thing.  this winter our "warm' spells have often been muted and not as torchy.  i'm less likely to believe that temps will be as warm as shown that far out.  And that we are in the colder part of our winter climo tells me that it is something to keep an eye on.  And since a majority of our classic snows have temp issues it wouldn't be surprising for I-81 to get pummeled and me get rain and 32.1F

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