pcbjr Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Bingo! The last cold snap and " storm" had a few super cold looks like that and they were slightly over done and I sat here with a cold rain, in the 40s To quote my favorite band since you were on the music train earlier today - "I ain't often right but I've never been wrong" .... Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: To quote my favorite band since you were on the music train earlier today - "I ain't often right but I've never been wrong" .... Bingo! Did JB write that song!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Did JB write that song!?? The lyrics were written by Robert Hunter and the music by Jerry Garcia. Not a chill to the winter but a nip to the air, From the other direction she was calling my eye, Could be an illusion but I might as well try, might as well try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 20 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Confused it with the in house Clyde-model Lol must have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 hours ago, The Alchemist said: Would you guys quit it with the mic drop??? As a sound man, I keep twitching every time I read it... I know. I hope these mics they keep dropping are old, indestructible sm57s or sm58s. Those things will work no matter what happens to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 41 minutes ago, gwlee7 said: I know. I hope these mics they keep dropping are old, indestructible sm57s or sm58s. Those things will work no matter what happens to them. Can some one explain what the mic-dropping meme means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 10-15 day on the big 3 ensembles from the 12z runs. It's GEFS vs. GEPS/EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 The gefs doesn't look too far off! It has the ridge just off the west coast, where the other two, have it in the perfect spot for our eastern trough. Gefs should come around soon! I hope! Don't need it to score a coup now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Can some one explain what the mic-dropping meme means? It's essentially getting the last word by winning the argument in dramatic fashion. (Drops mic walks off the stage. Boom! Curtains!) Been a lot of mic dropping but nobody's won this argument yet, which is a curious phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 10-15 day on the big 3 ensembles from the 12z runs. It's GEFS vs. GEPS/EPSGEFS is going to eat crow here considering the look of the Operational. It's important to use ensembles, but it's also important to realize when ensembles are wrong...and the GEFS is just that. Doing terribly with this transition period, no doubt in my mind it corrects. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's essentially getting the last word by winning the argument in dramatic fashion. (Drops mic walks off the stage. Boom! Curtains!) Been a lot of mic dropping but nobody's won this argument yet, which is a curious phenomenon. I'm ready for something besides mics and rain, to fall from the sky! FabFeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 So for those keeping score at home, it's:Warm: GEFSCold: GFS Op/EPS/GEPS/JMA/CFSv2 Weekly/Beijing Climate Center Weekly and probably even the Brazilian model. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jon said: GEFS is going to eat crow here considering the look of the Operational. It's important to use ensembles, but it's also important to realize when ensembles are wrong...and the GEFS is just that. Doing terribly with this transition period, no doubt in my mind it corrects. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We have been in a stout Nina pattern, will have one of the warmest Jans in a long time and we are going to flip to a Nino pattern with a stout +ao/+NAO. Hmmm....lot of spiking the football on these day 15 ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: So for those keeping score at home, it's: Warm: GEFS Cold: GFS Op/EPS/GEPS/JMA/CFSv2 Weekly/Beijing Climate Center Weekly and probably even the Brazilian model. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk !!!! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 We have been in a stout Nina pattern, will have one of the warmest Jans in a long time and we are going to flip to a Nino pattern with a stout +ao/+NAO. Hmmm....lot of spiking the football on these day 15 ensembles. Uh, you're spiking the same football at day 15 ensembles, of which is the only model showing that warm of a solution. So what's your point?Sure, we can end up AN and I wouldn't go to Vegas against that prediction, but that doesn't mean we can't have BN and a decent pattern for 4-5 days out of the month. We got a winter storm with a month to date temp anom map looking like this. We aren't going to get sustained blocking, everyone knows that. Doesn't mean the pattern at the start of feb doesn't have potential, it's the best look yet, by a long shot. Usually when multiple global ensembles hit on a pattern like this, you can go to the bank with it - or hug the GEFS. To each their own my friend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Uh, you're spiking the same football at day 15 ensembles, of which is the only model showing that warm of a solution. So what's your point? Sure, we can end up AN and I wouldn't go to Vegas against that prediction, but that doesn't mean we can't have BN and a decent pattern for 4-5 days out of the month. We got a winter storm with a month to date temp anom map looking like this. We aren't going to get sustained blocking, everyone knows that. Doesn't mean the pattern at the start of feb doesn't have potential, it's the best look yet, by a long shot. Usually when multiple global ensembles hit on a pattern like this, you can go to the bank with it - or hug the GEFS. To each their own my friend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Great...we agree. At best this is a short window opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: We have been in a stout Nina pattern, will have one of the warmest Jans in a long time and we are going to flip to a Nino pattern with a stout +ao/+NAO. Hmmm....lot of spiking the football on these day 15 ensembles. We've been in a Niña pattern, but the indicies say we've been la nada, since about November and Cali has been getting rain like a Nino and we are about to get a lot of damp rainy weather, so besides the torchiness, the pattern says what indicies!??? So how has the front loaded Niña winter worked out? I think JB touted a back loaded winter in the fall, if so , kudos to him! So we havnt had a lot of cold and dry, like was expected in a Niña ! So basically, why could we not get a Nino like look now, with some blocking?? Not an impossibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Great...we agree. At best this is a short window opportunity. Yep I've said that in a few of my posts, that's this winter's mantra. We got lucky last time, we could or could not get lucky this time, it's all about timing....but the CFS monthly BN teasing is interesting. If it holds til the end of the month that would be nice, but not holding my breath for sustained cold at all. I just want another huge storm where I can get sleeted all night again by a stout warm nose, is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just now, pcbjr said: Pack probably thinks the Cowboys can win too!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Just now, Jon said: Yep I've said that in a few of my posts, that's this winter's mantra. We got lucky last time, we could or could not get lucky this time, it's all about timing....but the CFS monthly BN teasing is interesting. If it holds til the end of the month that would be nice, but not holding my breath for sustained cold at all. I just want another huge storm where I can get sleeted all night again by a stout warm nose, is that too much to ask? Nope, consider it done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We've been in a Niña pattern, but the indicies say we've been la nada, since about November and Cali has been getting rain like a Nino and we are about to get a lot of damp rainy weather, so besides the torchiness, the pattern says what indicies!??? So how has the front loaded Niña winter worked out? I think JB touted a back loaded winter in the fall, if so , kudos to him! So we havnt had a lot of cold and dry, like was expected in a Niña ! So basically, why could we not get a Nino like look now, with some blocking?? Not an impossibility Yeah this may look like a Niña pattern but it's being caused by other factors. Had we had a moderate La Niña it's entirely possible this winter would have been a disaster for the entire eastern US. The QBO and the pacific shifting to that PDO regime in the fall coupled with a stronger La Niña would have been really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jon said: Yep I've said that in a few of my posts, that's this winter's mantra. We got lucky last time, we could or could not get lucky this time, it's all about timing....but the CFS monthly BN teasing is interesting. If it holds til the end of the month that would be nice, but not holding my breath for sustained cold at all. I just want another huge storm where I can get sleeted all night again by a stout warm nose, is that too much to ask? We specialize in warm noses so I would bank on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: We have been in a stout Nina pattern, will have one of the warmest Jans in a long time and we are going to flip to a Nino pattern with a stout +ao/+NAO. Hmmm....lot of spiking the football on these day 15 ensembles. When your playing with house money and already at seasonal norm, you have the luxury to spike it all day long even if your getting sunburnt in the middle of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 FWIW--- Mack says nothing!!! lol From- JB GEFS: I Have No Idea Why the Western Trough Day 15 I realize there is a lot of sentiment favoring the GEFS but it makes little sense with its own MJO for one and for two it looks nothing like the Canadian or the Euro Ensembles Its fascinating to see the debate here. The GEFS does not see the trough in the GOA . IN fact Day 16 it has a huge ridge there! and the trough in the rockies giving ammo to the ideas I am hearing about that there is no change coming........... It doesnt even make sense with its 10mb! Very Strange, The Euro looks like what I believe is going to happen, and at the very least we see the Canadian and Euro in very different modes than the US models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: FWIW--- Mack says nothing!!! lol From- JB GEFS: I Have No Idea Why the Western Trough Day 15 I realize there is a lot of sentiment favoring the GEFS but it makes little sense with its own MJO for one and for two it looks nothing like the Canadian or the Euro Ensembles Its fascinating to see the debate here. The GEFS does not see the trough in the GOA . IN fact Day 16 it has a huge ridge there! and the trough in the rockies giving ammo to the ideas I am hearing about that there is no change coming........... It doesnt even make sense with its 10mb! Very Strange, The Euro looks like what I believe is going to happen, and at the very least we see the Canadian and Euro in very different modes than the US models Of course he sees the Euro solution. The smart money is on the GEFS. Take the worst solution and double down this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Can some one explain what the mic-dropping meme means? It's fake news,pay it no mind. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Of course he sees the Euro solution. The smart money is on the GEFS. Take the worst solution and double down this winter. I was just passing along info, I could care less who believes it or not?? Just another forecasters opinion NOT a model Interpreter.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Timothy Clyde said: Don't expect me to answer every time I am quoted after I already dropped the mic and closed the lid on my laptop. I said wintry weather is possible second week of February or after but not anytime before then so that gives you 4-5 weeks to not watch the models be wrong. Good, please keep it closed and don't ever pick up the mic again unless you can show us sound reasoning/illustrations why you think the models are wrong..... Mods, is this really Wilkes with another attempt to infiltrate the board? Oh wait, I almost forgot about the ignore feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: When your playing with house money and already at seasonal norm, you have the luxury to spike it all day long even if your getting sunburnt in the middle of January. It's always great being on the wrong side of a huge bust...but then getting your nose rubbed in it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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