Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Second low forms in TN on Monday 1/9 and tracks ENE, brings cold air in backside and it finally makes it down into GA, SC LOL. NC/TN looks to get some NW flow showers from that one, but not much else. 540 stays into Northern SC through hr 300, and looks to retreat. No other wintry precip on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 UKMet looks pretty good at 144. Stronger low over E Canada than 00z GFS at the same time with stronger polar energy dropping into it over C Canada. Wish the Euro had this look. Hard to say what would happen with the timing of the wave rounding the bin there in California....overall we haven't taken a step back tonight in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Provocative image at 372, LOL. 1038 high over Ohio with 540 line from N Atl to Augusta to MYB, with gulf precip blossoming, ice in TX/LA. Too bad that look isn't within day 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Are you confident that will happen? So far you have insulted 3+ people in one night. What's your endgame of point to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 You can't ask any more from these operationals that we are getting. Every single run the past couple of days has shown a storm this far out, pretty fantastic opportunity for most of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 57 minutes ago, packbacker said: Better blocking on this run. Even better on the 18z GFS Para run...much better over the NE states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Even better on the 18z GFS Para run...much better over the NE states Wow..hard to believe that's a cutter on the para... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: Wow..hard to believe that's a cutter on the para... Yeah agree Jonathan, you wouldn't think, but that wave out west phases and goes negative tilt over the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 We need the Para look over the NE into E Canada with a well timed SW states wave that is weak to moderate in strength....not too much to ask right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Canadian caved to the suppression solution. No longer a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Wow..hard to believe that's a cutter on the para... Para really is horrible, compared to the other models,with verification! We should only like it when it shows good, like the UKMET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GEFS doesn't look good. Quite a few cutters and rain it seems based on P-Type panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Para really is horrible, compared to the other models,with verification! We should only like it when it shows good, like the UKMET! No it's not. Verification scores from October through late November had it outperforming GFS and tied with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Para really is horrible, compared to the other models,with verification! We should only like it when it shows good, like the UKMET! I thought the Para scores were fine, but I don't have them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: GEFS doesn't look good. Quite a few cutters and rain it seems based on P-Type panels. Based on the analysis others have presented here, it looks very unlikely that we get anything significant east of RDU so now I am just interested in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Based on the analysis others have presented here, it looks very unlikely that we get anything significant east of RDU so now I am just interested in the cold air. Still plenty of time for this to change for the better. I wouldn't worry about the rain/snow line until we are within 120 hours. If by then models indicate NC is out of the game then it'll be time to look for the next system. With this being 156-204 hours out there is plenty of time for changes to happen. UK has done well this winter and may give us a clue what to expect from the Euro and GFS in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: GEFS doesn't look good. Quite a few cutters and rain it seems based on P-Type panels. The ensemble members have been pretty stingy overall over the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, griteater said: The ensemble members have been pretty stingy overall over the past few days Still a good ways to go but with winter storms of past years you generally want 10+ GFS members on your side and a good 30+ Euro members at this range to have a legit shot of something. It will change a lot the next few days but early indications point towards a snow/ice event for areas to our N and W as has been the theme all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Ehh, at least the mean isn't terrible. Definitely some more northern tracks (wouldn't call them "cutters" per se) in there though based off accumulation trajectory. Control run sure isn't pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Also of note... models typically trend warmer as we get closer to events not colder. Sometimes they do in CAD situations but when we are waiting for the cold to arrive it's almost always slower than modeled. With a marginal setup as is currently modeled that doesn't bode well for snow/ice chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Well it's a better run on the Euro, but probably going to be a VA special....we'll see, out to 162, positive tilt trough in the 4 corners and sfc high too far west in Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's a prolonged overrunning event again, multiple weak sfc lows running along the SE coast. Snow in VA into the NW NC mtns....system gets colder as it goes along so changeover to snow for the rest of the mtns down into N GA and Bama...a little out east of the mtns as well....would be a doozie with a little more cold push. Euro is diving the northern stream energy into the wave out west so it's keeping that sfc high too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Euro bringing more cold down out of Canada at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1AM WPC Discussion... FINALLY FINISHING UP WITH NEXT THURS/FRI... ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIG FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NW AND SHOULD BE A KICKER TO DRIVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION DOWNSTREAM. THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS BATCH OF UPPER DYNAMICS... AS SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS ENERGY INTACT... WHILE OTHERS SHEAR THE SYSTEM OUT. THIS IS RATHER IMPORTANT... AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO OVERRUN INTO THE THEN ESTABLISHED COLD SECTOR OVER THE EAST/SOUTH. THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS MEANS MOISTURE EASILY REACHING THE COLD SECTOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FROZEN PRECIP... WHILE THE SHEARED-OUT SOLUTIONS MEANS A SUPPRESSED SOLUTION OF MAINLY RAIN AND NOT OF MUCH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD. THIS LATE WEEK SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT BEARS WATCHING. MUSHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: UKMet looks pretty good at 144. Stronger low over E Canada than 00z GFS at the same time with stronger polar energy dropping into it over C Canada. Wish the Euro had this look. Hard to say what would happen with the timing of the wave rounding the bin there in California....overall we haven't taken a step back tonight in my mind Add Euro to the comparison at hr144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It will probably change many times on the models but it looks like the typical half inch of slush for RDU South and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6z GFS was overall very similar to 0z except further south and with even less overall accumulation across the board. (But more in E NC) Wonder if this will end up trending back into a stronger, more consolidated system as we get closer? Need to tread lightly however between stronger storm with possible higher accumulations that could cut vs a weaker wave with less accumulation but with less chance to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Good lord at the 6Z run, barely below freezing in ATL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: 6z GFS was overall very similar to 0z except further south and with even less overall accumulation across the board. (But more in E NC) Wonder if this will end up trending back into a stronger, more consolidated system as we get closer? Need to tread lightly however between stronger storm with possible higher accumulations that could cut vs a weaker wave with less accumulation but with less chance to cut. As other have said we just want the storm signal at this range. We want the overall pattern to be able to produce a storm. Details should be looked at within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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