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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent


Jonathan
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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm already down to 36, if we stay at or below 51 degrees, our forecast high, it will help a lot moving forward! On another note, all the forecasts for Sunday and Monday lows are in the 7-10 degree range, TWC and accuweather

That 72hr+ below freezing period looking more and more possible. Glad I have plenty of ice melt, Walmart had none left.

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Just now, JoshM said:

Doesn't matter how this storm goes, I seem to get 3-5 every run. I'll take it, and call it a day.

Bingo! The slight South shift on 0z GFS, is fine with me! As long as it's colder, I'd rather worry about qpf, instead of temps! But widre said everybody sucks at temps and will all melt on Saturday! LOL

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Bingo! The slight South shift on 0z GFS, is fine with me! As long as it's colder, I'd rather worry about qpf, instead of temps! But widre said everybody sucks at temps and will all melt on Saturday! LOL

 

sun angle may kill accums too, along w/ground temps. 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Bingo! The slight South shift on 0z GFS, is fine with me! As long as it's colder, I'd rather worry about qpf, instead of temps! But widre said everybody sucks at temps and will all melt on Saturday! LOL

I still think, even if it wasn't MBY, that this will tick back north a pinch. I think you and me could live with this moving NW a pinch :)

 

gfs_asnow_seus_13.png

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It's hilarious how offended Brick gets when anyone brings up possible temp issues or precip issues or track issues.



Legit question from the uninformed, does the "BL temps suck!" guy have a valid point? I can't tell (due to met ignorance) but my long-honed message board spidey sense says troll?


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1 minute ago, JoshM said:

I still think, even if it wasn't MBY, that this will tick back north a pinch. I think you and me could live with this moving NW a pinch :)

 

gfs_asnow_seus_13.png

One of many concerns, but one I can't shake, is that hole between ATL and GSP!!!! I think Lookout touched on it today, it's been a very recurring theme, on a lot of model runs! The Savannah river snow hole, is real

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

One of many concerns, but one I can't shake, is that hole between ATL and GSP!!!! I think Lookout touched on it today, it's been a very recurring theme, on a lot of model runs! The Savannah river snow hole, is real

That has bit you in the ass before, but there's always something in the 11th hour that will get someone. These storms are like military operations, nothing ever goes according to plan.

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1 minute ago, thess said:

 


Legit question from the uninformed, does the "BL temps suck!" guy have a valid point? I can't tell (due to met ignorance) but my long-honed message board spidey sense says troll?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

He's pretty knowledgeable, but tends to use his superpowers for evil! A snow killjoy! But could be a valid point! BL temps are surface temps, always a concern in South 

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2 minutes ago, thess said:

 


Legit question from the uninformed, does the "BL temps suck!" guy have a valid point? I can't tell (due to met ignorance) but my long-honed message board spidey sense says troll?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

I agree for y'all. I still think we have some temp concerns but we will see. 

 

Have you gone back back to work yet? 

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb.  It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.

In all my years of tracking winter weather in South Carolina, I have found there is always a warm nose. Always. 

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb.  It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.

The funny thing is that the NAM has 925 and 850 ESPECIALLY cold. It's surface temps that are way warm.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

"The BL Temps Suck Guy" -- LOVE IT!

 

But seriously, we're gonna fight with them Friday evening. Precip always moves in faster than expected with these set ups, so we're gonna lose some precip to the rain monster.

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb.  It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.

Atleast on the GFS we are good here for the duration, about 25 miles to spare.  The strength of the low and absence of a bonified 850 are keeping the warm punch in check.  I would give caution though to folks using those stock 10:1 snow maps, the snow flag does not descrimnate between IP ZR or SN.  

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

Ground temps are a concern but will just make things worse as it will melt and then refreeze...assuming we get any snow.  Which I am holding out until 12z runs tomorrow.

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Just now, No snow for you said:

Can you imagine the meltdown if we lost this storm now. 

Ummmm....it would be Dec 2000 all over again.  But, RAH is like 30-40 miles from 1" so a SE shift and yes it would suck.  That's something that could change day of the storm.

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