SJonesWX Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeeeah, okay - if you say so. the 'music' of the forum isn't conveying that same melody, Ray -come on. it's not a difficult read when when you see a constant stream of 'this cold means business' type content, based on a present thermometer ob - there's no other reason to say things like that other than to believe it has some special resistance to warming. it may - look, i'm not doubting the agreement between the RGEM and NAM ..and the trend of the others. i'm just saying 'in general' it's possible. and should it warm more in the end than presently believed or wanted, there's a dying hope folks won't get grousy about it. word i think pretty much everybody here, even NNE'ers understand that Sunday is going to warm up. i haven't seen anyone deny that, even your buddy in Tolland. but i think you are confusing what people are saying about Saturday being a colder solution. ie: many posters BYs will be cooler on saturday during the bulk of the precip, but come saturday night and sunday, it is torch away. but please...preach on about how we aren't getting it but you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i think pretty much everybody here, even NNE'ers understand that Sunday is going to warm up. i haven't seen anyone deny that, even your buddy in Tolland. but i think you are confusing what people are saying about Saturday being a colder solution. ie: many posters BYs will be cooler on saturday during the bulk of the precip, but come saturday night and sunday, it is torch away. but please...preach on about how we aren't getting it but you are. probably am - sure. i don't speak that special insider dialect that's common to this particular subforum's parlance. that's code for being on the outside look in. i think also that the warmth is retarded even over present consensus - if that's not hypocritical enough... haha. but seriously, that weird cold back into BOS is typically a sign that the bl will resist to the last plausible moment - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 you know the atmosphere just simply hate winter weather enthusiasts when you got this kind of real-estate coverage and the f'er can hold it back ... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The biggest change in guidance over the last 48-60 hours has been instead of a front end thump to immediate 35F and 45F rain and then 55F rain not long after...the evolution has morphed into a more prolonged in situ CAD event aided by the meso low...so most of Saturday away from the south coast and SE MA could be quite cold and even hazerdous on Saturday evening with freezing drizzle in the dry slot...previously late Saturday afternoon and evening had looked quite warm. We still are going to warm sector, but it just appears to be delayed now by 6-10 hours versus prior morphology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The biggest change in guidance over the last 48-60 hours has been instead of a front end thump to immediate 35F and 45F rain and then 55F rain not long after...the evolution has morphed into a more prolonged in situ CAD event aided by the meso low...so most of Saturday away from the south coast and SE MA could be quite cold and even hazerdous on Saturday evening with freezing drizzle in the dry slot...previously late Saturday afternoon and evening had looked quite warm. We still are going to warm sector, but it just appears to be delayed now by 6-10 hours versus prior morphology. How long in 50's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Man, I keep harping on it but if we had the high more north of Maine, this would be a real doozy...prob almost double the qpf and a zero percent chance of warm sectoring. It is impressive enough as it is that this will produce pretty solid snowfall accumulations with such a retreating seaward high pressure. Of course, the antecedent airmass has a lot to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Yeah, a dam shame. Would be a prolonged overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The question for me up here is how long does the CAD hold? I always overperform with it. Greens warm up and even up to Concord NH but it never seems to get here. First wave is obviously all snow but wonder how long we stay below 32F with the second round? That is the question up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How long in 50's? Congrats on 58 on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 I'm pretty sure people have been thinking a big jump in temps for Sunday the whole time. Just that the timing has been pushed back a few hours and might be shorter lived. I do t think it will jump 50 degrees, but it will get to near or above 50 for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Take the personal crap to banter or PM. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on 58 on the RGEM. How long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Take the personal crap to banter or PM. Thanks. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 My thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Any mine are here: http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Thump-of-Snow-Followed-by-Ice-407149855.html I agree with what Will posted earlier. Definitely a nice cold tuck modeled now and I think we really do get a good thump on the nose of that LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I feel like SW CT near the coast is going to do well. They should hold the cold just a few miles from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I feel like SW CT near the coast is going to do well. They should hold the cold just a few miles from the water. I was pretty close to bringing our 4-6" band all the way down to New Haven about 30 seconds before our 4 p.m. news started but held off. I agree I think that we get a pretty good thump in most areas. Up here we may go from snow to freezing drizzle... especially around BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The biggest change in guidance over the last 48-60 hours has been instead of a front end thump to immediate 35F and 45F rain and then 55F rain not long after...the evolution has morphed into a more prolonged in situ CAD event aided by the meso low...so most of Saturday away from the south coast and SE MA could be quite cold and even hazerdous on Saturday evening with freezing drizzle in the dry slot...previously late Saturday afternoon and evening had looked quite warm. We still are going to warm sector, but it just appears to be delayed now by 6-10 hours versus prior morphology. agreed .. what's interesting is that secondary - it's like without it, the damming would sort of remain hidden.. doesn't sound very right no, but... there's almost no antecedent CAD signature in the pressure pattern and it only shows up as that secondary deepens in relation to it - makes it hard to know which came first. weird look there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, I keep harping on it but if we had the high more north of Maine, this would be a real doozy...prob almost double the qpf and a zero percent chance of warm sectoring. It is impressive enough as it is that this will produce pretty solid snowfall accumulations with such a retreating seaward high pressure. Of course, the antecedent airmass has a lot to do with that. Tmw verifies as forecasted, then I'm happy with this month....no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Coastal front shows up nicely on the latest HRRR radar simulations. Here are it's totals through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: Coastal front shows up nicely on the latest HRRR radar simulations. Here are it's totals through 18z. Exactly as how one would draw it up. Very textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 HRRR in its later stages use with caution. It seems pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR in its later stages use with caution. It seems pretty light. I'm simply posting what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: fairly certain the following opine won't register and/or just irate some ... but, don't be fooled by how cold it was last night and today. granted, this is a unique scenario that may very well succeed in actually 'winning' against a deep layer SW flow (...mainly because we have a weak (but strong enough) secondary...) but, it is possible flip some 50 F in as little as 12 hours given the right circumstance. i know - i've seen it. Didn't we do that in the cold snap last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm simply posting what it shows. I know...I was just throwing that out there to keep in mind for those areas inland that were lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeeeah, okay - if you say so. the 'music' of the forum isn't conveying that same melody, Ray -come on. it's not a difficult read when when you see a constant stream of 'this cold means business' type content, based on a present thermometer ob - there's no other reason to say things like that other than to believe it has some special resistance to warming. it may - look, i'm not doubting the agreement between the RGEM and NAM ..and the trend of the others. i'm just saying 'in general' it's possible. and should it warm more in the end than presently believed or wanted, there's a dying hope folks won't get grousy about it. word John, I really wasn't trying to start with you.....just honestly of the opinion that most accept that warmth is making a return on Sunday. I mean...the cold today did mean business.....it was severe. But rest assured, it will be 50 in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know...I was just throwing that out there to keep in mind for those areas inland that were lighter. So how long will it be in upper 50's for all of SNE Sunday? Honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know...I was just throwing that out there to keep in mind for those areas inland that were lighter. Think I will be just North of the CF, going to be close. Of course a few miles in either direction will make a big difference.If it sets up over 128, I could be just a bit too far north to get into the heavier stuff. I could be closer to the exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, Dan said: Think I will be just North of the CF, going to be close. Of course a few miles in either direction will make a big difference.If it sets up over 128, I could be just a bit too far north to get into the heavier stuff. I could be closer to the exhaust. Nah you're north of it. I would not sweat the exhaust. Speaking of, NAM looks a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I dnt think it will make it past rt 128....but its only going to be 1-2" diff....this isn't 12-5-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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