mitchnick Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Top 3 model, easily. Bob Chill gives it a lot of weight in his forecasts. Ignore it at your peril. So was this the most reported post of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 15 minutes ago, mappy said: CRAS picked up one of the 2009/2010 storms first and held serve. we hug. 1/30/10 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 18z GFS... If we can get rates, 12z SAT is snow at DCA, but pingers close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like another shift to the north on this one for the thump. now it missed my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 We run with 18z GFS snow totals... solid advisory snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It was discussed here the other day, but the GFS really hates the valleys west of the Blue Ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's a solid 2-4" the snow map is counting ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, yoda said: We run with 18z GFS snow totals Well, I would take Tropical Tidbit.. but Pivotal says - NOT much IMBY - Marylanders can be somewhat happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Change back over Sunday Night still on GFS' map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I am liking the back end wave idea. That probably works out like 27% of the time vs 23% for a front end thump in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well, I would take Tropical Tidbit.. but Pivotal says - NOT much IMBY - Marylanders can be somewhat happy! Running to the end zone with that in Central MD--until Lucy sticks her foot out and trips me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Can anybody get psu ewall to work on their phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 SE VA is getting a long period of frozen mess on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What do the blue and red lines on the models signify, the ones with the 500 numbers on them. I thought they meant temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well, I would take Tropical Tidbit.. but Pivotal says - NOT much IMBY - Marylanders can be somewhat happy! NE Maryland crushed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 That Pivotal map looks bizzarre. An inch or so in Westminster and close to 5 at BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: NE Maryland crushed!!! HAHAHA! SE VA/NC ICED! I am sure this algorithm is challenged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: NE Maryland crushed!!! PUMMELED!! lol wonder if that dude will show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That Pivotal map looks bizzarre. An inch or so in Westminster and close to 5 at BWI? Pivotal does better with ratios and previp type while TT handles oragraphoc effects better. You can see the effects of Parrs ridge and the blue ridge clearly on TT where pivotal rarely seems to capture elevation as well. Kinda have to blend the two on this one. TT is overdone for sure but pivotal might be underdone on the ridges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 OK - Second wave double ices same southern areas. Total ice craziness on Pivotal - (and yes, these are stupid maps so this will be my last) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 And now a southern system shows on GFS and no source for cold air next week. Unhappy hour! \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Half of the 18z GEFS blow up our region with snow on Sunday night into Monday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Half of the 18z GEFS blow up our region with snow on Sunday night into Monday night lol Is that a result of the frontal boundary becoming stationary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z GEFS through 102 (this is snow totals for the Friday night into Saturday system) Now... lets take a peek at the 18z GEFS through 162 Note that about half of the ensembles increase our snow amounts by about 6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Is that a result of the frontal boundary becoming close to stationary? Moree a result of building heights in the Southeast and nothing supplying cold air. Our source region for air is not from Canada. We need the flow to change- GFS hints at a full US cold look at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GEFS through 102 Now... 18z GEFS through 162 Note that about half of the ensembles increase our snow amounts by about 6"... That would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z GEFS through 102 (this is snow totals for the Friday night into Saturday system) Now... lets take a peek at the 18z GEFS through 162 Note that about half of the ensembles increase our snow amounts by about 6"...When I look at Precip types, very few show snow, but the ice threat is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: When I look at Precip types, very few show snow, but the ice threat is definitely there. For Sunday Night too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I am looking at the AmWx GFS ensemble members... and at 120 already 7 members have DCA above the 1290 thickness line (the 1000-850mb thickness line) with heavy precip in the region Quite a variance... but some ensemble members says its in the 20s and snowing Sun afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Push that front south another 50 miles and a lot of those members are legit hits. Pretty good signal for a storm but not holding my breath with the way things have trended with the past storm and now this one for Sat. With that said, the "storm" for sunday/monday is a different setup than the fast systems chasing highs we have seen. Cold arctic high anchored to the north and to the west. IMO, it is one of the few ways to score a decent hit in this pattern. Still a long shot...maybe we can get a slow and steady trend for the better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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