mappy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 that cold front is a doozy. even on the CMC, which isn't nearly as robust. 50 to 34 in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 24 minutes ago, H2O said: 84 so yoda can post NAM extrap I do the 87 hr SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Not much ensemble support for the euro op solution. Much less than I was thinking after seeing the op hold for a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not much ensemble support for the euro op solution. Much less than I was thinking after seeing the op hold for a couple runs. the Jan snow was an anomaly holding for as long as it did. We score best within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Can somebody do a quick synopsis of the Euro? The gfs looks like a NW flow type of deal and man o man am I skittish about those setups. Is the euro different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 At the very least first snow flakes seem likely for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 6z GFS still not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 it does say that you might need an umbrella for your turkey tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 21 minutes ago, H2O said: 6z GFS still not impressed The 500's on the 06Z GEFS is actually showing a nice period of potential. For 6-7 days, starting at roughly day 8, it has a very nice setup. Even after that stretch it has possibilities though it would require some adjusting of the ridge and the east coast trough back to the west somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The 500's on the 06Z GEFS is actually showing a nice period of potential. For 6-7 days, starting at roughly day 8, it has a very nice setup. Even after that stretch it has possibilities though it would require some adjusting of the ridge and the east coast trough back to the west somewhat. was speaking more to the event on Sat/Sun. The pattern setting up is interesting for the next two weeks. Fantasy land GFS bears watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Euro backed off on the snowfall. Temps are warmer, 36 or so and precip lighter. maybe a dusting or 1" for higher elevations (unless you are out in far western MD/WV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, H2O said: was speaking more to the event on Sat/Sun. The pattern setting up is interesting for the next two weeks. Fantasy land GFS bears watching For what it's worth the CMC is still trying for Sun-Mon but the temps are just a touch to warm. Though the snow maps for it were fun to look at I never could really buy into this event. It was too convoluted with much that could go wrong. Now the upcoming stretch, IFFFF.... the 500's come close to verifying has me somewhat excited. Still early in the season but if we can get the temps to cooperate I wouldn't be surprised to see an event or 2 during that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Does one have to have a ton of snow to buy into an event? It's the third week in November. Flakes in the air would be fun, can we get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, mappy said: Euro backed off on the snowfall. Temps are warmer, 36 or so and precip lighter. maybe a dusting or 1" for higher elevations (unless you are out in far western MD/WV) Could probably just copy this and post it every 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Could probably just copy this and post it every 12 hours. too soon for all that. winter hasn't even begun yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 That is a solid frontal passage. 850s drop from 14C to -5C in 12 hours on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 22 minutes ago, mappy said: too soon for all that. winter hasn't even begun yet. True, and I'm speaking blind. I don't even know what the Euro shows. I know the GFS doesn't look to promising, IMO, for anything other than maybe a few flakes flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 52 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Does one have to have a ton of snow to buy into an event? It's the third week in November. Flakes in the air would be fun, can we get that? Not sure why not believing the snowfall maps, which would have made it a noteworthy event this early in the season, is frowned upon by you. And yes, it would be nice to at least have some moodflakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: True, and I'm speaking blind. I don't even know what the Euro shows. I know the GFS doesn't look to promising, IMO, for anything other than maybe a few flakes flying around. euro has some light precip overnight for the 95 west crew. flakes, maybe a dusting. nothing to shovel, but for mid-november, it's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I'm also excited for thanksgiving. Not that I am thinking it will snow but just that it won't torch..most likely I guess. Cloudy and cool would be just fine for the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Yes, flakes in the air and then reasonable Thanksgiving weather over blow torch is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 48 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure why not believing the snowfall maps, which would have made it a noteworthy event this early in the season, is frowned upon by you. And yes, it would be nice to at least have some moodflakes in the air. Does everything have to be pessimism? Who was believing snowfall maps from one run of the Euro six days out for a 3rd week in November thing verbatim? In any event, flakes in the air would be kinda cool. Maybe we can get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, mappy said: euro has some light precip overnight for the 95 west crew. flakes, maybe a dusting. nothing to shovel, but for mid-november, it's exciting. For damn sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: For damn sure. I mean, a butterfly could fart and us getting a wind storm from it would be exciting. It's been pretty damn boring lately. However -- I'm totally down with seeing flakes fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Flakes in the air during November imby has always been a decent indicator for a decent winter (AN snowfall). So gimme any kind of flakes so I can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 GFS still has nothing for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Snowflakes before Thanksgiving is a major snow event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Euro even drier than 00z. Not looking good, friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rain. 0.01" at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Another fun game of spot the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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