Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It warms a bit near 925 too. I would definitely agree about the ageo part. I'll take a more nrly component please. 

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something.

But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 686
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge.

And the timing later in the day hurts a bit. Look how cold temps are back in ern NY where the snow moves in early morning. Still, something to watch as we get closer. ORH definitely has room the wetbulb, especially if we can get maybe some mid level stuff well ahead of the low. Some models show a decent band of precip on what looks like the leading edge of H7 warm front. Maybe it's something where they have a 34F -SN for a time? At any rate, it's all speculation this early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

The only issue with this setup is that it is so early in the season with no real cryospheric feedback in place yet to strengthen and thicken the cold wedge, so I feel like it won't be quite as stout as it would be in December or something.

But still, the classic physics are still there for a lot of wedging, and the models might be a bit too aggressive with the easterly component.

Shockingly, I was thinking the same thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For us up in Central New England it would be nice if we radiate real good on Wednesday night and then get the high clouds in here around daybreak.  I would think that would help keep the cold air down near surface level.  If we get several hours of sunshine first we loose the cold surface air.  Maybe I could score a couple of inches before the changeover.  Guess it depends on the track of the secondary and how fast it takes over.   This is far better than taking about endless drought.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is looking like a crush job for Rangeley area. That's a super look as the inflow combines and upslopes there. 

 

Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Mid-levels get pretty warm though on some of these runs...if they somehow keep it all snow, they could get annihilated. It would probably rival some records up there for October snowfalls.

Maybe if not there, further northeast....but that's a good look overall. Hopefully it doesn't go too far north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

I wonder if this event is foreshadowing the "seasonal pattern" in that we might have a big snow season for interior/northern New England.  Finally a great season for the ski areas coming up?

Keep it there.  As has been discussed most of the day.  This looks like a great setup for the Mtns of ME.  C/NNE look pretty good overall with the setup.  Elevated and interior areas in SNE may see their 1st flakes or light accum before rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just like the two snow events in October 2011 really foreshadowed a huge interior SNE winter.  

Yeah. Of course some may view this as some sort of anti NNE thing. Absolutely not. Rock on as far as I'm concerned. But October patterns don't mean anything. That would go for any pattern....even one that was kind to interior SNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One October event doesn't dictate the pattern. 

I'n not trying to insinuate anything,but that's like trying to say a backdoor front means a cool summer. 

Of course.  Just pure speculation on my part.  As always it will be interesting to see what or even if a "seasonal pattern" sets up this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...