buckeye Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Theres an awful lot of confluence still over the east. I dont care how strong that s/w is, it cant amplify in the face of that. That atlantic low has gotta move outta the way quick to allow room for a storm on the east coast. this/\...it's absolutely ripping over ohio points north and east....you can already see a flatter ridge in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks, back to analysis. Looking at the 66hr Nam it's hard to see how the hieghts can build ahead of the developing trough because of the northwest flow over the northeast on this run of the nam. you have a point...focusing on the sw in the stj and the ridge out west everything looks better and very identical to the euro, but then you look ahead at that freaking ginormous vortex and it just looks like it would squash anything coming east. It still has time to slide east in the next few frames....they do have a tendency to move out just in time often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks, back to analysis. Looking at the 66hr Nam it's hard to see how the hieghts can build ahead of the developing trough because of the northwest flow over the northeast on this run of the nam. comparing the 12z euro at hr 84 to the 0z nam at hr 72, the hgt line are almost identical or pretty close on the east coast fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 comparing the 12z euro at hr 84 to the 0z nam at hr 72, the hgt line are almost identical or pretty close on the east coast fwiw i was just wondering that, thanks tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Definitely 6 hours slower, but the NE storm is 6 hours behind too. It's the same distance between the two and the same strength. But that's what allows the phasing piece of northern energy to dive further west....and holds up the s/w & ridge. Yes, the cyclops needs to move eventually, but I believe a stronger LP will assist us with a stronger storm in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way they are exactly in the same spot as the 12z euro on the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way It does and if I were on the show today that would be one of my main talking points. The heights are lower at 72 than the 18Z run. that's gonna make it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The s/w coming through IA (on this run) at 78 hours is much slower. All good things. That feature seems to be one of the bigger sticking points with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Theres an awful lot of confluence still over the east. I dont care how strong that s/w is, it cant amplify in the face of that. That atlantic low has gotta move outta the way quick to allow room for a storm on the east coast. What is it with these huge Atlantic lows and confluence everytime we have a promising scenario? It seems as if there is always something to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It does and if I were on the show today that would be one of my main talking points. The heights are lower at 72 than the 18Z run. that's gonna make it hard. Tombo is right though...if you compare the NAM to the Euro the heights over the northeast are the same. The euro just moves the vortex out of the way just in time I guess. But so far the NAM looks identical to the euro in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way If you loop the NAM H5, it is moving out just in time. This run looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z NAM 84 12z Euro 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The s/w coming through IA (on this run) at 78 hours is much slower. All good things. That feature seems to be one of the bigger sticking points with the models. Not all good things, at 84 hours there isn't even an 850 low over ar and the winds are still northerly with cold advection over dc. This run of the nam would be a dead duck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro has the s/w in SW LA while the NAM has it in NE LA at the same time frame. Everything else is pretty much identical. How would that impact the final solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I will say this. Its good that the NAM and Euro look similar, and by looping through hr 78, you can see that the confluence is quickly relaxing as the northern stream energy is diving into the south. It would be close I would think but there is just no way to tell what would happen in the next 24 hrs after it. Such subtle differences have huge impacts on overall amplification of the trough along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z NAM 84 12z Euro 96 Looks very good to me. The new low is in exactly the same place. The old low is actually further SW on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z NAM 84 12z Euro 96 Wow, NAM ready to explode at 90 hours it would appear. Looks slightly 'more threatening' than the EURO imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How can we say the vortex is a problem at this juncture when it looks identical to the Euro so far? Let's not extrapolate the NAM too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 She's gonna blow! Great improvements. GFS = OUTLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 She's gonna blow! Great improvements. GFS = OUTLIER. The biggest positive I take out of the 00z NAM is that it did not trend any closer to the 12/18Z GFS on the speed of the s/w as it appeared it was trying to start doing on its 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How can we say the vortex is a problem at this juncture when it looks identical to the Euro so far? Let's not extrapolate the NAM too much. 100% agree, confluence is CLOSER on the EC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks very good to me. The new low is in exactly the same place. The old low is actually further SW on the ECMWF. Brings back memories of the old ETA/Euro tag team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow, ready to blow, looks good and dead duck within 5 posts.....i guess there really is a lot of room for interpretation here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What is it with these huge Atlantic lows and confluence everytime we have a promising scenario? It seems as if there is always something to worry about. record breaking blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z NAM 84 12z Euro 96 That is amazing agreement.......ie a good thing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How can we say the vortex is a problem at this juncture when it looks identical to the Euro so far? Let's not extrapolate the NAM too much. Yeah, I probably should have waited. I didn't realize the Euro had it in the same spot. We should be good based on t hat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z gfs massive bust coming COMPARE 18Z GFS 84 HRS 0Z NAM 78 HRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How can we say the vortex is a problem at this juncture when it looks identical to the Euro so far? Let's not extrapolate the NAM too much. though the nam hs trended towards the euro, i think there are subtle differences over the great lakes at 500 and over new england where there is a little more of trough hanging back so I guess we'll disagree. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's a good thing we can't see the actualy east coast result. Keep Hope Alive!!! I also noticed the NE low was actually further stage right than the Euro. That's what I'll take from the 0Z NAM. We still have no idea what the NAM implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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