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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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Flooding already in DR with also a tornado reported

Courtesy of StorCarib.....  http://stormcarib.com/

" Good evening.

 
Earlier today, my commute to home was easier, less traffic than usual, because of school closed.
 
It's being raining all afternoon, some times with greater intensity than other. A couple of thunders as well. Dominican power grid is essentially vulnerable with these type of events, but at least in my area we haven't get outages, not yet.
 
So a made a quick run on social media and news and noted some important information:
 
We have now 16 provinces under Red Alert, including Greater Santo Domingo [Population of almost 3 million people] (previously under yellow alert), 8 provinces in yellow and 7 in green alerts. This are just means for local authorities to distribute resources were is needed.
 
Speaking of that, Ozama River is flooding the settlements on its shores, luckily, a couple of months ago people residing there (most of them) were relocated by the government on new apartments. There has been reports of urban floods in some cities and towns.
 
Here are some accumulatives in some provinces:
 
Pedernales: 422 mm
La Vega: 222 mm
San Pedro de Macorís: 117 mm
Santo Domingo Metro Area: 94 mm
 
Schools and some campuses are closed tomorrow, some public offices as well.
 
Some flight cancellations reported in Las Americas Intl. Airport.
 
Report of a tornado in Oviedo, Pedernales, destroyed 12 houses.
 
And for the moment, that's all I got, hoping everyone in the track of this monster stay as safe as possible, specially folks in Haiti, where wind damage might be widespread.
 
Stay tuned...
 
-- 
Guillermo A. Serra
Santo Domingo, R. D.
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13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Catastrophic run. Just no other word for it. Jet associated with the incoming trough tries to impinge some shear and dry air entrainment, but it's too little -- too late, by the time that happens it's already raked everything from S FL to SE NC.

The only saving grace, if this run verified, would be if the wind field didn't expand from the current state, where hurricane force winds only extend out 40 miles from the center, so as long as the center stayed about 50 miles off the coast (looks to be about that, although hard to discern without zooming in), the effects from the wind, at least, would hopefully not be as bad as they could be.  Obviously, if we have several feet of storm surge up the entire FL coast and then to SC/NC, that would be pretty bad, though - haven't seen the predictions on that.  

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10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The only saving grace, if this run verified, would be if the wind field didn't expand from the current state, where hurricane force winds only extend out 40 miles from the center, so as long as the center stayed about 50 miles off the coast (looks to be about that, although hard to discern without zooming in), the effects from the wind, at least, would hopefully not be as bad as they could be.  Obviously, if we have several feet of storm surge up the entire FL coast and then to SC/NC, that would be pretty bad, though - haven't seen the predictions on that.  

Yeah, that's a good point and we'll obviously have to see how it comes out north of Cuba. Plenty of time for a wind-field expanding ERC or two in the period after that though.

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

If the euro falls in line tonight too, we will have a consensus of a US landfall by all the global models. Track still could change, of course.

Currently, it looks like the UKMET lead the way well in advance (days) of most modeling based on their trends today.  Not to say they are right.

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GGEM not quite as bad for FL but a double landfall, first one near Myrtle Beach SC and second one probably eastern LI into RI (this is somewhat subjective based on how the map at 120h with cat-2 Matthew 100nm east ACY best translates to the map at 144h with post-tropical merged low in central-eastern Quebec. Could be a wider turn there but from a blend of GFS and GEM with support from UK it would appear that the most likely track is something like 25-50 nm offshore FL north of PBI, then grazing past CHS with a gradual landfall in eastern SC, through eastern NC and se VA, back out to sea near southern Delmarva, up the coast 30-100 nm east of NJ into central or eastern Long Island and then across RI/MA (or Cape Cod only) and NH or ME-NB into Quebec. 

We await the thinking of King Euro on all of the above. 

Seems to me that proto-Nicole is going to have a brief role to play in anchoring the blocking ridge by pushing it slowly north, long enough to force Matthew to the coast. Also becoming a factor, developing wave on front in Colorado which would hold back some of the energy allowing for a rapid phase over northeast U.S. around Sunday 00z. 

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11 minutes ago, harrisale said:

 Question is how does it compare to the 12Z run?

Faster and further west than 12Z - looks almost like the GFS in track/timing - maybe 100 miles SW of the GFS's posiiton at 120 hours.  But still out to sea at 144.  Disparity continues - at 144 GFS is in Downeast Maine, while the Euro is 300 miles east of Norfolk.  Wow.  

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Faster and further west than 12Z - looks almost like the GFS in track/timing - maybe 100 miles SW of the GFS's posiiton at 120 hours.  But still out to sea at 144.  Disparity continues - at 144 GFS is in Downeast Maine, while the Euro is 300 miles east of Norfolk.  Wow.  

Looking at the EC ensembles coming in, the op EC looks like an Eastern outlier to almost all of its own ensembles, at all points along the track. 

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