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NWNC2015

Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

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56 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

True, but this is how things work here. We're miserable in the present, the models throw a bone, people get excited, models lose the bone, then everyone's back to being miserable.

Just gotta let it flow. There's been some great discussion in this thread the past few days. :)We all know winter will turn out to be awful, but we might as well sprinkle some false happiness every now and then! 

You live in freaking Virginia. You don't know what an awful winter is ! You're in the mid-atlantic so you probably get a decent snowfall every winter.

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54 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Sometimes folks around here are in pipe dreams.  Keep smoking it, seems like some good **** with the delusions some have

 

One good snow of 2-4" is all I want.  It's not

aksing that much. 

You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest....

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Cleanup is needed in this Discussion thread!  Can you folks who want to whine and complain, or attempt to be funny by inserting your witty one-liners with no substance, please go to the banter thread? Thanks!

If you need a part-time moderator, let me know.

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EPS didn't change much...still snow options on the table for day 9-12.  The day 7-8 overrunning get's squashed as the PV is dropping so far south.  

Looking at the members day 13 you have roughly 8 that show a warmup and 16 that show still BN temps.  To lazy to count the 2nd half of the members but would guess they are roughly the same.  Long story short...this looks like maybe we have a few cold days, then a few warm days then a few cold days...with rain in between.

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I got it, how about those who has a negative input on how winter will suck then let your back yard burn and mine redeem it self with a full blown winter storm. Be thankful signs are good for us

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18z GFS very ho-hum. Northern tier of the U.S. continues to get plastered, the rest of us get cold-warm-rain in that order twice through two weeks.

Canada stays cold.

Don't worry though, 0z will bring the goodies! 

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5 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:
1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

18z GFS very ho-hum. Northern tier of the U.S. continues to get plastered, the rest of us get cold-warm-rain in that order twice through two weeks.

Canada stays cold.

Don't worry though, 0z will bring the goodies! 

Transient unfortunately.  Only those in the far northern SE will have a real good shot on this pattern. 

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3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

You must be talking about the folks down there where you live. As for MBY, we have snow every winter. It's more about tracking the first winter event. Why must you always try to put people down? Give it a rest....

Nobody is putting anyone down.  This is a classic case of not being able to tolerate a point of view that isn't roses.  You don't live that far from me and our weather isn't hat different.  You live in the SE like me.  Hickory gets more snow but that doesn't change what the pattern looks like.  If you and anyone else wants to believe this will get it done more power bro but I would like a lot more in our favor for both of us.  I don't see hickory getting much out of his pattern.  We are both too far south to get in on it. 

 

JMO,  your mileage may vary. 

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Didn't everyone talk about how terrible the 18z GFS was a few days ago when it gave us a weenie run? If the 18z is so terrible, why is everyone cliff jumping because this 18z didn't give us any winter weather?

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7 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Didn't everyone talk about how terrible the 18z GFS was a few days ago when it gave us a weenie run? If the 18z is so terrible, why is everyone cliff jumping because this 18z didn't give us any winter weather?

You may know this but it's been proven a few times by mets that the 6z and 18z runs are just as accurate as the 0 and 12z.  It's statistics and they are what they are.  I agree though,  your point still stands. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I think some people are just on edge because for SOME it's been nearly 3 years since there's been any snow ( including myself).

Yeah, there has only been a few dustings in and around Metro Atlanta for a few years now. you will have a better chance up in Dahlonega, GA.

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

The wave ends up going neg tilt too soon, sfc low heads north into N MS at 231...ice in VA.  Let's get that kind of airmass in here and roll the dice

Yep big time cutter. 

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Canadian not quite as impressive with the arctic blast, but some cold air across the 'northern south' with icing in NC and VA similar timeframe as GFS

Too bad it's 240hrs, has a 1040 high plus a nice wedge with Ice.

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8 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Nothing exciting on the EURO unless you like cold-warm-rain-cold...I can feel December fading away.

That's life in the southeast. Gotta love it. On a positive note, it's looking pretty good for our friends in the Ohio Valley and Northeast. I'm hearing word of a possible triple phaser ?  Fun times ahead ! 

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

When did JShetley move to Virginia?

No shetley here, because I acknowledged the rain we're definitely getting. (And the cold) 

One good thing about this pattern is that the southeast drought will likely be busted by the end of the month. Keep it coming.

Just can't get the cold and the liquid at the same time.

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